Poland A Power?

katchen

Banned
Not after 1900. Too hemmed in by Russia and Germany. Poland's big chance was in the early 17th Century during Russia's Time of Troubles. If Poland had kept it's peasantry free instead of imposing serfdom on them, Poland would have had the allegiance of the Cossacks and have been able to expand indefinitely into Siberia US style. Instead Poland wound up with BOgdan Chmielnicki and the Cossacks revolting in 1648 and reaching a modus vivendi with the Tsar and Poland is cut off. :(
 
Have the Polish-Soviet War go even better for the Poles, with Belorussia and the Ukraine as Polish puppets. Have Pilsudski be able to go through with his plans to incorporate Lithuania. Butterfly WWII and the Nazis. Wait a few decades. Give Poland a very successful nuclear program. Wait a few more decades. You now have nuclear-armed superpower Poland.
 

katchen

Banned
I suppose many leaders of European nations could have filled the role of Hitler i if his country developed nuclear weapons and he had enough time. Even a successor to Pilsudski in Poland. by the 1950s if WWII was tardy.
 
Perhaps, if it could avoid WW2 and communism, it could become more developed and be a major player in the world economy, not quite as large as say, Germany, but still an important player.

I understand that is not quite what they wanted, but making a major military power after 1900 is a bit difficult.
 
You can end up with a safe, secure Poland with strong allies. Look at my TL for an example.
Rather with strong masters. I don't see what could make Poland stronger than OTL in any CP victory scenario:
-Poland wouldn't have seaport
Poland wouldn't have Posen, Pomeralia and Upper Silesia, which were and still are the wealthiest parts of the country. Poland would also likely lost border strip to Germans and Chełm and Podlasie to Ukraine.
-Under Ludendorff and Hindenburg German Empire became quite radical, so it's possible that it would be NO Poland in CP victory scenario and Polish nation by 2013 will be some ethnic curiosity in eastern frontiers of Great Germany in some enclaves in Lesser Poland, but even in best possible scenario Poland in CP victory will end as country size of modern Hungary-hardly a power. OTL Poland definely count better as power than in any hypothetical post-CP victory.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Rather with strong masters. I don't see what could make Poland stronger than OTL in any CP victory scenario:
-Poland wouldn't have seaport
Poland wouldn't have Posen, Pomeralia and Upper Silesia, which were and still are the wealthiest parts of the country. Poland would also likely lost border strip to Germans and Chełm and Podlasie to Ukraine.
-Under Ludendorff and Hindenburg German Empire became quite radical, so it's possible that it would be NO Poland in CP victory scenario and Polish nation by 2013 will be some ethnic curiosity in eastern frontiers of Great Germany in some enclaves in Lesser Poland, but even in best possible scenario Poland in CP victory will end as country size of modern Hungary-hardly a power. OTL Poland definely count better as power than in any hypothetical post-CP victory.

Well, Poland (unless it has the Ukraine) will never be a first tier great power with any POD after 1900. Poland at best is a second tier power. Now to your objections.

1) Seaports - A-H used Hamburg as it main port for imports, and was a Great Power. Sure a seaport is nicer, but not required.

2) The wealth of Silesia does not make up for being over run. The value of allies outweights these gains. With a strong ally, Poland is defensible and can develop economically over time. This idea of Poland versus the world shows up a lot. Poland has to have a strong ally as a neighbor. Pre WW1, we can chose between A-H, Germany or Russia. After WW1, we have Germany or Russia as the choices. The basic choices are not having the lands in west and having Germany as an ally. Not having land in east and Russia as ally. Having both German and Russia with a grudge. We know how the last option plays out.

3) Far from clear Germany takes a border strip in a CP win - lack of German settlers to live their, adding more Polish voters, problem with Polish party in parliament, problem with Catholic party in parliament, cost of occupying.

4) Now sure there are some horribly time lines one can write for Poland, but it is hard to top OTL for suffering. Especially if one counts the Jews, who were also citizens of Poland. Now the best case is a Poland that goes farther east than OTL Poland, but does not have West Prussia or Posen with a Hapsburg King.
 
1) Seaports - A-H used Hamburg as it main port for imports, and was a Great Power. Sure a seaport is nicer, but not required.

A-H had to use Hamburg on German terms. Fortunately strengthening A-H as much as possible was in Germany's interest. We can't really say the same about Poland...

2) The wealth of Silesia does not make up for being over run. The value of allies outweights these gains. With a strong ally, Poland is defensible and can develop economically over time. This idea of Poland versus the world shows up a lot. Poland has to have a strong ally as a neighbor. Pre WW1, we can chose between A-H, Germany or Russia. After WW1, we have Germany or Russia as the choices. The basic choices are not having the lands in west and having Germany as an ally. Not having land in east and Russia as ally. Having both German and Russia with a grudge. We know how the last option plays out.

In OTL it lasted for a generation, so I wouldn't discount this option completely. 20 years of true independence and x-20 years of being a German satellite is obviously better then x years of German supremacy. It's that simple.

4) Now sure there are some horribly time lines one can write for Poland, but it is hard to top OTL for suffering. Especially if one counts the Jews, who were also citizens of Poland. Now the best case is a Poland that goes farther east than OTL Poland, but does not have West Prussia or Posen with a Hapsburg King.

Nah. Expanding east would have been bad. The Ukrainian lands already gave Poland severe indigestion in OTL. The Belorussians didn't, but if there had been several million more of them they would have.
 

Cook

Banned
Therefore, might I suggest a Poland as buffer state scenario?
Actually, that's more or less what Poland tried to do in OTL.
Yes, it really only works so long as the neighbours are not on good terms, or at least as long as they don’t see the benefit of simply doing away with the middle man.

It possibly could have worked if they’d been prepared to play the middle man more in line with the Belgian way of doing it at the time; accepting a Russian guarantee against German attack without entering into an alliance or accepting the entry of Soviet forces prior to any German attack. This is pretty much with Foreign Commissar Litvinov was striving for after Munich; a Poland guaranteed by Britain, France and the Soviet Union against German attack. The threat of having Britain, France, Poland and the Soviet Union at war with him simultaneously would have been enough to stop Hitler in his tracks.
 
If you have a CP victory, and a resurrected Poland starting out as a large CP satellite, over the next few decades it could develop into a respectable nation and shake off its shackles

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

If the CPs win, this Poland will consist of Congress Poland and, possibly, Galicia. Not big enough to became a significant power IMHO. Besides that, this country will have to deal with unhappy minorities (Jews, Ukrainians, Lithuanians, Byelorussians, the odd Russian here and there) if it is as Polono-centric as OTL's interwar Poland was.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
A-H had to use Hamburg on German terms. Fortunately strengthening A-H as much as possible was in Germany's interest. We can't really say the same about Poland...

I viable Poland buffer state is strongly in Germany's interest. Sure a part of the German trade zone and with defensive alliance with Germany (or maybe all sides guarantee neutrality). Separate by space from the big bear has benefits.
 
I viable Poland buffer state is strongly in Germany's interest. Sure a part of the German trade zone and with defensive alliance with Germany (or maybe all sides guarantee neutrality). Separate by space from the big bear has benefits.
Ah, we go at it again. ;) As before I'll point out that in this scenario Poland has no leverage to prevent Germany from abusing this relationship if Germany decides to run Poland as if it was their colony.
 
A-H had to use Hamburg on German terms. Fortunately strengthening A-H as much as possible was in Germany's interest. We can't really say the same about Poland...

I viable Poland buffer state is strongly in Germany's interest. Sure a part of the German trade zone and with defensive alliance with Germany (or maybe all sides guarantee neutrality). Separate by space from the big bear has benefits.

Viable, profitable, even wealthy in some respects - yes. But Germany doesn't need it to be strong.

EDIT: A Germany in a CP victory.
EDIT 2: On a second thought, just about any type of Germany. A strong Poland might be useful in certain situations, but not actually necessary.
 
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The basic choices are not having the lands in west and having Germany as an ally. Not having land in east and Russia as ally. Having both German and Russia with a grudge.
CP victory means no lands in the west and east, because Germans supported Ukrainians over Poles, actually Poland in CP victory would have even least lands in the east than in OTL, because Germans have given Chełm and southern Podlasie to Ukrainian state. CP victory is road to nowhere if you want to strengthen Poland-OTL is just way better!
 
If the CPs win, this Poland will consist of Congress Poland and, possibly, Galicia. Not big enough to became a significant power IMHO. Besides that, this country will have to deal with unhappy minorities (Jews, Ukrainians, Lithuanians, Byelorussians, the odd Russian here and there) if it is as Polono-centric as OTL's interwar Poland was.
If it plays its cards right, it might later be able to get something more in the East which is ethnically Polish. Vilna in particular stands out.
 
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CP victory means no lands in the west and east, because Germans supported Ukrainians over Poles, actually Poland in CP victory would have even least lands in the east than in OTL, because Germans have given Chełm and southern Podlasie to Ukrainian state. CP victory is road to nowhere if you want to strengthen Poland-OTL is just way better!

How about allied victory in WWI, but including Imperial Russia. Poland gain autonomy within Russian Empire and is expanded to Oder on the west while also getting western Galicia?

Eventually, if some revolution still happened to Russia, Poland could assert independence and claim some more Russian land.

Another idea: after WW2, Polish-Czecho-Slovak union comes to fruition. All western Slavs united into one country of 54 million people (by now).
 
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