PODs for a Christian Somalia?

As it says on the tin. I assume most PODs will involve a more successful Ethiopia, but what specific events would work in that regard?
 
As it says on the tin. I assume most PODs will involve a more successful Ethiopia, but what specific events would work in that regard?

As soon as Ethiopia, Yemen and/or the Roman Empire converts. Egypt, Aksum and Yemen are perfect places to start missionary activities.

Starting from 400AD. That is good for 250 years earlier than IsIam.
 

Skallagrim

Banned
Do you want earliest possible or latest possible approach? @Koprulu Mustafa Pasha gives us a good shot at 'earliest'. It's thought that Ethiopia was Christianised in the mid-fourth century, so c. 400 AD as a starting point for expansion into Somalia seems credible. From that point on, missionary activity from surrounding regions is simply the way a Christian Somalia can happen. Once Arabia goes Islamic, the window closes rapidly. Even in scenarios where islam is somehow confined to Arabia in the north, as comes up in this thread, I suspect that the avenue where it can still expand is by hopping across the Red Sea, into East Africa. There is the possibility of Islam being contained before it can take Egypt, which allows for a Christian corridor up the nile in East Africa, which might extend to include Somalia, but frankly... if Somalia is not already Christianised by that point, I think Islam is in the stronger position to move in. Basically, once Islam is entrenched in Arabia, odds are it's going to dominate Somalia as well. So the window for getting Christianity entrenched in Somalia is roughly 400 AD - 600 AD, and the way to do it is enthousiastic missionary work (same as Ethiopia in OTL).
 
Early PODs seem solid to me.

No chance of an Ethiopian conquest of Islamic Somalia and gradual conversion and/or colonization, though?
 
Early PODs seem solid to me.

No chance of an Ethiopian conquest of Islamic Somalia and gradual conversion and/or colonization, though?

Ethiopia wasn't in a position to take over large Somali territory. Unless they centralise earlier... but even then conversion and long term rule is unlikely. The option is before Islam secures Somaliland.
 
Wouldn't Christian missionary activity that successful that early in nearby Somalia and Yemen butterfly Is lam out of existence. With Mohammed simply another missionary in Arabia for Ethiopian influenced Christianity.
 
I am in favor of an Indian derived Nestorian Church via trade relations in the Indian Ocean monsoon trade in key Somali ports and an itenerant trade population working with herding communities in inland towns.

An open acceptance of possession cults (Zār/Sar) will be important in conversion process.
 
Even in scenarios where islam is somehow confined to Arabia in the north, as comes up in this thread, I suspect that the avenue where it can still expand is by hopping across the Red Sea
I'm kind of skeptical about this. If Christianity is deeply entrenched in Ethiopia and Somalia, Islam would have a hard time to spread without conquering Arab armies to back it up, especially if there is a strong Christian state in Egypt.
 

Skallagrim

Banned
I'm kind of skeptical about this. If Christianity is deeply entrenched in Ethiopia and Somalia, Islam would have a hard time to spread without conquering Arab armies to back it up, especially if there is a strong Christian state in Egypt.

Well, yes. If it is deeply entrenched in Ethiopia and Somalia, that is the case. And I wrote that, once sentence later. The thing is that this still demands Christianisation of Somalia before Islam arises. Because if we're looking at a POD where Islam is curbed before taking Egypt (but everything else is the same), the question of which religion gets Somalia becomes a matter who gets there firstest with the mostest. I'm betting that Islam (hopping across the Red Sea, which really takes but a moment) is likely to win that particular race.
 
I'm kind of skeptical about this. If Christianity is deeply entrenched in Ethiopia and Somalia, Islam would have a hard time to spread without conquering Arab armies to back it up, especially if there is a strong Christian state in Egypt.

The landscape affects it as well. Ethiopia was never conquered by Muslim due to the mountains surrounding in combination with their resistance. Somalia would be easy to rule but Ogaden would be hard to reach or to be conquered. In such case, Ogaden Somali's would be majority Christian.
 
I do think missionary work would be the best way - at least to introduce it. However, to solidify it, you may need to do more.

A more... extreme PoD would be a recent love of mine : Exiled Belisarius, essentially an Exile campaign to remove a too-successful general to an extreme location. That'd almost certainly lead to attempts to convert Somalia.

A more practical PoD is likely to be the Missionaries, but combined with a Christian-backed faction rising to power. (i.e. Aksum and Constantinople backing a Somalian leader who had converted, with materials, money, and even men if needed) Military unification of Somalia that way could expand the Roman-influenced world on one hand, but also Christianise it strongly - and vitally, unify the city states.

What is interesting to me is that a united Somalia is a major trade powerhouse, likely to compete with the Arab world, that is also a useful ally against Persia. If we assume that this doesn't butterfly away Islam - then it also creates a very powerful ally against the Caliphate when it makes its moves, through effectively cutting off any trade from India, with force, recognising the value of Roman trade, and that the Arabs wouldn't NEED Somalia in the same way, making it entirely possible that Somalia would be a vital component to allow the Romans to effectively maintain control over Egypt and Syria with Somali and Aksumite help - with Somalia cutting off trade and potentially assisting the Aksumites in effectively raiding Arabia (if Aksum gets involved). I mean, the Caliphate having to protect itself from raids on Mecca, Muscat(?) by a Roman ally with every incentive to end Arab competition in trading with the Romans? That isn't an insubstantial distraction, and could even be enough to overwhelm the Caliphate.
 
That isn't an insubstantial distraction, and could even be enough to overwhelm the Caliphate.
I think if the Caliphate is confined to Arabia, meaning Persia also stays Zoroastrian, I think they would become a minor power in the region. The big population surplus they have has to be vented somewhere and if they fail to break out of Arabia, well that's a recipe for internal tensions. Of course much depends on how the Romans fare. A strong Byzantium ruling the Levant and Egypt could kick them around every once in a while to ensure the instability of the region.

And I wrote that, once sentence later.
Indeed you did, I missed it, sorry about that.
 
I think if the Caliphate is confined to Arabia, meaning Persia also stays Zoroastrian, I think they would become a minor power in the region. The big population surplus they have has to be vented somewhere and if they fail to break out of Arabia, well that's a recipe for internal tensions. Of course much depends on how the Romans fare. A strong Byzantium ruling the Levant and Egypt could kick them around every once in a while to ensure the instability of the region.

Well, that could become mercenaries for neighbours as well - or Roman clients. A victorious Rome is likely to be in a better position than Persia, so any re-converts to Christianity could be mercenaries/clients in Mesopotamia, or used as mercs/settled in the Exarchate of Africa.
 

Skallagrim

Banned
I think if the Caliphate is confined to Arabia, meaning Persia also stays Zoroastrian, I think they would become a minor power in the region. The big population surplus they have has to be vented somewhere and if they fail to break out of Arabia, well that's a recipe for internal tensions. Of course much depends on how the Romans fare. A strong Byzantium ruling the Levant and Egypt could kick them around every once in a while to ensure the instability of the region.

I see your point about foreign interference causing instability/in-fighting, but going with a POD that's as butterfly-light as possible, I'm kind of assuming that the situation of the ERE and Persia is the same. That means that for the immediate future, their chances of meaningfully exerting power deep into Arabia are slim. That brings us to population pressures in Arabia. You see in-fighting as a result, and I can get on board with that, but assuming that the OTl 'pressure valve' (expansion to the north) is somehow closed off, my expectation is that expansion into East Africa becomes more likely.

The mercenary idea @RogueTraderEnthusiast brings up could wotk in that context. One might imagine the Arabs moving into Somalia as similar to OTL's Anglo-Saxons moving into Britain...


Indeed you did, I missed it, sorry about that.

No prob-- I think i came across as crabbier than I meant to.
 
The mercenary idea @RogueTraderEnthusiast brings up could wotk in that context. One might imagine the Arabs moving into Somalia as similar to OTL's Anglo-Saxons moving into Britain...

I'm a little concerned by that comparison, our little Christian Somali baby!

I think Arabia has 4 pressure valves IMO. 6 even, if we subdivide the north.

1) Syria/Levant client states
2) Mesopotamian client states
3) Roman Mercs in North Africa - small numbers at any one time, but a stream of impoverished Arabs could make an interesting border community
4) Persian Mercs in Central Asia - same as 4, but with Pashtuns.
5) Somalian Mercs/Anglo-Saxons (noooo, precious baby)
6) India. Why not? They have wars, the Arabs have fine cavalry, ship them over and they make good soldiers. Plus, if we assume existing merchant communities, those could easily form a bed for Arabian Mercenaries in India - perhaps even becoming a significant minority in S.Indian coastal communities.
 
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