PoD in 1908 to avoid mexican revolution?

Hi everyone, I was wondering what could stop the Mexican revolution from occurring?
I wish to start a TL spanning from 1908 until 50's.

So, how could Mexico be saved?
One more thing, the italo-turkish war, was there a way for the Ottomans to win it?
 
I have bit doubts that 1908 is too late to avoid Mexican revolution.

I can't answer to Italo-Ottoman War.

What if Madero dies?
Well, the main point was keeping Porfirio but it's enough if a similar regime stays in power, how can the order he imposed in the country be kept?
 

raharris1973

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One more thing, the italo-turkish war, was there a way for the Ottomans to win it?


The Austro-Hungarians enter on the Ottoman side and sucker punch Italy?
 
One more thing, the italo-turkish war, was there a way for the Ottomans to win it?


The Austro-Hungarians enter on the Ottoman side and sucker punch Italy?

That would be an interesting development, however, Italy and Austro-Hungary were "allies" by the time...how would Germany and the other powers react to that escalation of the conflict?
What would A-H objectives be?
With Austro-Hungary moving against Italy...the Ottoman Empire would be in a better position against the Balkan League, wouldn't it?
How feasible is this scenario?
 

raharris1973

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That would be an interesting development, however, Italy and Austro-Hungary were "allies" by the time...how would Germany and the other powers react to that escalation of the conflict?

Germany's government would be highly disappointed in Austria-Hungary, but unable/unwilling to take sides against her. The German General Staff would have to recalculate defense plans to no longer assume Italian support in the west. German public opinion would probably be more pro-Austrian, anti-Italian because Italy's double-dealing was an increasingly open secret.

Other powers- The Ottomans would be pleased obviously. The Entente powers did not have positive commitments to Italy and would be content to take out the popcorn and watch while the Triple Alliance collapses. Public opinion in the Entente countries, at least Britain and France, found the Italian aggression against the Ottomans a bit obnoxious and greedy. While not in any hurry to rescue the Italians from their fate, the French will take note of the opportunity to approach Italy and strengthen Franco-Italian ties *after* the war is over and settled.

The Serbs would have a pro-Italian attitude just based on their government's bias against *both* the Habsburgs and Ottomans.

What would A-H objectives be?

Mainly negative, to weaken and punish Italy, and to discourage Balkan state opportunism and destruction of the Ottoman Empire. As far as demands are concerned, rather than seeking cession of Italian territory, the Austro-Hungarians would be demanding an indemnity, possibly arms, naval or fortification limits, and a cessation and renunciation of Italian aggression and claims against Libya and Albania and the Dodecanese.

The positive outcomes the Austrians would be looking for would be a morale-building victory against the Italian enemy who is not popular with any of the other ethnicities of the the empire, and creation of a de facto alliance with a preserved Ottoman Empire to protect the territorial status quo in the Balkans and keep Serbia small and isolated. If Austro-Hungarian public opinion or military honor demands some kind of territorial prize, I still think Vienna would not seek metropolitan Italian territory, as the other powers would see a grab for Venetia or Lombardy as overreach, and acquisition of the territories would add to the minorities problems in the Empire. So, the only alternative annexation, possibly, would be Italian Somaliland, which gives Austria-Hungary a token African colony that looks nice on a map and registers the rise of Austria's status against Italy's decline.

With Austro-Hungary moving against Italy...the Ottoman Empire would be in a better position against the Balkan League, wouldn't it?

Yes, which would be a big part of the plan, to prevent Slavic expansion against the Ottomans. The Balkan states almost certainly do not attack the Ottomans, at least in the 1912-1914 timeframe, because the Serbs and Bulgarians need to worry about facing two-front war against the Austro-Hungarians and Ottomans, and the Greeks need to worry about their navy facing opposition from the Austrian navy in addition to the Ottoman.

How feasible is this scenario?

Conrad von Hotzendorff Austrian Chief of Staff advocated for it. The Italo-Ottoman War took long enough that Vienna should have had an opportunity to intervene militarily. Granted, Austria's mobilization system and limitations were a mess.


----On to Mexico, you figure the "Porfiriato" was a desirable period of pro-business stability that Mexico should have continued. So you consider the 1910s and 1920s were revolutionary "lost decades" for Mexico? Or do you figure the whole era of PRI rule also as the wrong track for Mexico? From my point of view, on the one hand any revolution has near term costs, on the other, the PRI order appeared durable, growth was not bad for much of its time, and the country was reasonably stable- maybe Mexico could have done better, but compared to much of the rest of Latin America and its own 19th century self, 20th century Mexico could have done plenty worse.

One positive of a delayed or averted Mexican revolution might be Mexico getting richer off of WWI.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Hi everyone, I was wondering what could stop the Mexican revolution from occurring?
I wish to start a TL spanning from 1908 until 50's.

So, how could Mexico be saved?
One more thing, the italo-turkish war, was there a way for the Ottomans to win it?
Didn't the Mexican Revolution start due to Porifio Diaz rigging an election? If so, couldn't Diaz simply decide to call it quits and retire instead? After all, wasn't he already around 80 years old back then?
 
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