POD for the "Kick in the door" to work

As the infamous quote goes, all Hitler presumed when invading the Soviet Union was that "We only have to kick in the door and the whole rotten structure will come crashing down."

What POD would have been needed to internally weaken the SU so much that they would have outright state collapse before winter 1941?
 
Depends on what defines successfully 'kicking the door'.

If it is causing the entire communist system to fall apart, you would need to change aspects of the USSR in the 1920s, which could butterfly Hitler entirely.

However, grabbing Moscow and forcing a peace out of Russia (or at least crippling them enough that a peace can be seen in 1942) can be done if either less forces are sent to Kiev, or that all of the efforts against Kiev come from AGS only. Then have AGC focus on rushing to Moscow, which probably could have been reached in August. I don't think Moscow was particularly well defended until at least mid September, so an all-in rush should take the city. AGC would have to halt just past the city for lack of supply, and some of its Panzers could be sent North or South to assist either other group.

Moscow was a vital rail hub as well as a capital, and a capture in 10 weeks or less will deliver the same shock that came to France, so I think it would be enough to grab a lot of lebensraum. Peace would come mid 42 after Stalingrad (more panzers in the south!) and Leningrad (would fall somehow, I think there was a plan in mid 42 for it) are taken.

Or, one could just alter the weather so that there is less rain in October, but I don't think that would be enough TBH.

- BNC
 
Depends on what defines successfully 'kicking the door'.

If it is causing the entire communist system to fall apart, you would need to change aspects of the USSR in the 1920s, which could butterfly Hitler entirely.

However, grabbing Moscow and forcing a peace out of Russia (or at least crippling them enough that a peace can be seen in 1942) can be done if either less forces are sent to Kiev, or that all of the efforts against Kiev come from AGS only. Then have AGC focus on rushing to Moscow, which probably could have been reached in August. I don't think Moscow was particularly well defended until at least mid September, so an all-in rush should take the city. AGC would have to halt just past the city for lack of supply, and some of its Panzers could be sent North or South to assist either other group.

Moscow was a vital rail hub as well as a capital, and a capture in 10 weeks or less will deliver the same shock that came to France, so I think it would be enough to grab a lot of lebensraum. Peace would come mid 42 after Stalingrad (more panzers in the south!) and Leningrad (would fall somehow, I think there was a plan in mid 42 for it) are taken.

Or, one could just alter the weather so that there is less rain in October, but I don't think that would be enough TBH.

- BNC
That only works until logistics are considered, which was already a total mess for the Germans OTL. So if you have more forces concentrated in one Army Group and trying an all out rush to Moscow, how does that not make the situation for that Army Group even worse?

Best I could think to realistically get this is to get Stalin dead somehow after the invasion and hope that no one else is around who can credibly replace Stalin.
 
Stalin eats his pistol after his mental breakdown during the early stages of Operation Barbarossa. His magnates fall to infighting, crippling the Soviet war effort, but you'd still need the Germans to get a few lucky breaks weather/supply wise in the Moscow, Leningrad and Stalingrad campaigns on top of that too.
 
Have the Nazis not be Nazis and actually treat the people of the Soviet Union with the respect the Imperial German army treated the Russians in 1914. The Balts, Ukrainians, Belirussians and even many Russians would welcome them as savior and resistance would be minimal. There wouldn't be an incentive for the red army to fight till the last man.
 
Writing for the Osprey Campaign series, Robert Forczyk's Moscow 1941: Hitler's first defeat directly goes into alternate history speculation with the following said:

"By 15 October, 1st Panzer Division was approaching towards Torshok- i.e. moving away from Moscow! The forces dispatched to Kalinin were insufficient to achieve to achieve a decisive victory on their own, but the diversion seriously weakened the main push on Moscow and forced the Third Panzer Army to devote significant resources to a protracted attritional fight around Kalinin. If XLI Panzer Corps had pushed east towards Volokolamsk, the Germans might have been able to prevent Zhukov from establishing a new line east of Moscow."
 
Perhaps have the purges be even worse, and not having the winter war teach the Soviets the flaws in their doctrines might be enough for the Red Army to disentigrate during Barbarossa.
 
That only works until logistics are considered, which was already a total mess for the Germans OTL. So if you have more forces concentrated in one Army Group and trying an all out rush to Moscow, how does that not make the situation for that Army Group even worse?

Best I could think to realistically get this is to get Stalin dead somehow after the invasion and hope that no one else is around who can credibly replace Stalin.
That's why I have them halt just past Moscow. AGC is the same in 1941, and was able to reach Moscow IOTL, so *just* getting it and then halting is within its capabilities if Kiev is ignored/dealt with by AGS.

Diverting stuff to the other fronts would occur in early 1942, once Germany has consolidated its position in Moscow. Once Leningrad and Stalingrad fall, it is basically game over for the Russians.

- BNC
 
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