Depends on what defines successfully 'kicking the door'.
If it is causing the entire communist system to fall apart, you would need to change aspects of the USSR in the 1920s, which could butterfly Hitler entirely.
However, grabbing Moscow and forcing a peace out of Russia (or at least crippling them enough that a peace can be seen in 1942) can be done if either less forces are sent to Kiev, or that all of the efforts against Kiev come from AGS only. Then have AGC focus on rushing to Moscow, which probably could have been reached in August. I don't think Moscow was particularly well defended until at least mid September, so an all-in rush should take the city. AGC would have to halt just past the city for lack of supply, and some of its Panzers could be sent North or South to assist either other group.
Moscow was a vital rail hub as well as a capital, and a capture in 10 weeks or less will deliver the same shock that came to France, so I think it would be enough to grab a lot of lebensraum. Peace would come mid 42 after Stalingrad (more panzers in the south!) and Leningrad (would fall somehow, I think there was a plan in mid 42 for it) are taken.
Or, one could just alter the weather so that there is less rain in October, but I don't think that would be enough TBH.
- BNC