[POD discussion] The French Revolution stays domestic

So in the fall of 1791, the balance of opinion in the Legislative Assembly in Paris was against the war party, the Brissotins. While the Royal reputation was in the toilet, Louis' docility to anti emigre legislation had taken the wind out of the pro war sails, and the froth of anger was dying down. Still, Brissotin rhetoric so alarmed the Austrians that on December 21 1791, the Austrian state chancellor Prince Kaunitz sent a threatening letter to the French that fired up the war party. Still, the French response was pretty feeble, so the Austrians sent an even nastier letter in February. This led to the declaration of war on April 20, 1792.

Now, both sides were convinced the war would be fast and easy. The Austrians were certain the French army had low morale, that there were hordes of loyalists waiting to rise up for the king, and that a grateful and supine Louis XVI would shower then with concessions.

The Brissotins, conversely, believed that they had a fifth column of oppressed peoples in every country in Europe, that Austria had no real allies, and that furthermore Prussia would be on their side in the war. It's perplexing, but apparently residual hero worship of Frederick the Great made them think the Prussia state would be their ally, or at least stay neutral.

Everyone, of course, was wrong. The French had no allies and no great uprisings to give an easy victory, but they ended up conquering Western Europe for a while anyway.

However, is it possible to stop the powder keg from going off right at the end of the fuse? Here's my proposed POD:

In late September, shortly after the end of the Turkish war, Prince Kaunitz and Leopold II are in a terrible carriage crash that kills Kaunitz and leaves Leopold in a coma. Prince Ferdinand is declared regent till his father recovers and wakes, but he never will, dying six months later. The threatening letters of OTL are never sent.

Feeling the pressure of his new position, Ferdinand negotiates a full alliance with the Prussians, arranging the partition of Poland with them and Russia earlier than OTL, with a larger slice going to Austria. In France, Brissotin glee at Leopold's injury is tempered by news of the Austro Prussian arrangement being elevated to formal alliance. When Ferdinand III ascends the throne, his indifference to Marie Antoinette nullifies the effect of her pleas for intervention

My own feeling is that this could prevent the French revolution from becoming such a bloodbath. With the peace party ascendant, the revolution has time to settle down. Louis XVI is sure to still be deposed, but here they would likely just unceremoniously dump him and his family at the Belgian border after peacefully declaring a republic. It could avert the Reign of Terror and the Vendee uprising.

While France is still sure to go to war with SOMEONE in Europe over the long term, I think that there would be little stomach for intervention by other powers without the OTL revolutionary bloodbath. Similarly, the French wouldn't declare war on every crowned head in Europe without their blood being up.

What do people think?
 
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Looking at domestic French politics more, one thing I can see is the Revolution actually getting more radical faster. The main reason that the Girondins went to war was to create a foreign enemy to unite the masses behind them, rather than win the masses over with economic reform that would threaten their bourgeois power base. Robespierre and the Montagnards were actually opposed to war, partially because they feared Brissot's gamble would work and partially because they feared that France would lose. So I'd say that if you could somehow prevent the ascendency of the Girondins, while getting the Mountain to stop short of abolishing the monarchy(you'd probably have to prevent the Flight to Varrenes to do that) you should be golden. Economic reform, no brutal war in Europe, etc.
 
So you think it might be better to move the carriage crash to, say, spring of 1791? That would mean Ferdinand learns of the planned flight to varennes when he's desperately trying to wrap up his father's Turkish war before the Prussians intervene.

He could react angrily to the suggestion and tell his aunt and uncle not to pile more problems on his plate. That would leave Louis XVI little choice but to yield entirely to the people who wanted a full constitutional monarchy. Brisottins would have no foreign threats to play up, and the Mountain might accept a ceremonial monarchy with an otherwise powerful legislature.
 
Well, I think that Austria would have to make some token anti-Revolutionary gestures as they did IOTL to keep the emigres quiet. It's important to realize though that there never was really a threat of Austria attacking France first. Robespierre knew that and I think Brissot knew that too.
 
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