PoD: Athenians abandon Attica in 480

Forum Lurker said:
Would that inhibit the formation of an expansionist religion, or simply reduce the area in which it could spread?
Well, now that I think about it, the main thing that it would inhibit is the mass Arab settlement in conquered areas- You'd more likely see something like the Turkish Balkans, where there are many converts, but not enough to be a majority, and settlement of Arabs is far less (Probably still some settlement, however)
 
I haven't gone into the social effects of these religions (I really ought to), but conversion isn't in the cards. Avram's vision was a highly racialized one; letting someone not descended from Ismail offer worship would be blasphemous to him. The only religion which is really converting large numbers at this point is Shmuelism, as the Jews are mostly limiting conversion to women who marry Jewish men (so that the children are Jewish).

So, no real Arab settlement, but merely nominal hegemony over religiously disaffected, racially marginalized majorities? Sounds like a recipe for either serious reform or revolution.
 
~90-15: Growing unrest in Africa prompts religious reforms among the Ismaili overlords there; in Egypt and Nubia, native worship is permitted so long as neither temples nor idols are involved, while radicals in Libya and Numidia claim to have received revelation that permits the natives to be "adopted" into the Ismaili people, and thus follow that religion. This prompts severe schismatic conflicts, which eventually result in the formation of three states.

~15 BCE-100 CE: The westernmost nation, henceforth called Marrakech, begins to proselytize throughout the region, converting many nomadic tribes. The camel begins to enable effective trans-Sahara trade, though numbers are presently quite small. The central kingdom, henceforth called Axum, spreads southwards along the coast, primarily by sea. The eastern kingdom, maintaining that it is the true Ismaili kingdom, does not colonize, but concentrates its military efforts on protecting its borders from the Parthians. All three states engage in constant low-level naval warfare, Marrakech with Gades, Ismail with Macedon, and both against Axum.

During these centuries, Gades secures its hold on Iberia, and Macedon on Thrace and Hellas; both are experimenting with stronger state control, seeking not to repeat the mistakes of the Hegemony. The king of Gades appoints governors and administrators from within his family, hoping to rely on kinship ties as well as those of sworn oaths and military dependence; in Macedon, administrators are trained in state schools, usually drawn from the poor, orphaned, or individuals otherwise lacking in connections. Both states attempt to bind their respective cities and provinces much more tightly than was done in Hegemonic times, attempting to create a more unified (and thus more stable) nation.

In the north, the P-Celtic peoples of Ireland, populations almost untouched by the plague, have long since overrun the remnants of Hegemonic control, and now pour into Britain; by ~100 CE, the isles are essentially under Irish control.

EurE100.GIF
 
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100-350:

Europe: The Irish have adapted the League pentekonter into a more streamlined, shallower-drafted vessel suitable for coastal use; this is employed on frequent raids and occasional settlements of the Gallic mainland. Trends towards a more centralized government are slow, but visible.

The nation of Gades has reached a relative degree of equilibrium; its navy is occupied by fending off the Marrekechi, and its armies hold the Pyrenees steady against the Gauls. Instead of conquest, most of its energy is focused internally; philosophy (particularly Shmuelistic religion) flourishes, as do the arts.

Macedon, on the other hand, is just beginning to enter a new era of military might. Access to petroleum and sulfur deposits in OTL Rumania and Ukraine respectively allowed the development of a new weapon, an adhesive and highly flammable substance called Alexandrian fire. Its use against the Ismaili has crippled the latter's hopes of expansion by sea, and techniques to use the weapon on land are in development.

[It should be noted that Alexandrian fire is not the relatively liquid, siphonable substance OTL called Greek fire, but considerably more gelatinous, relying on a high proportion of pitch for cohesion; this makes it deadly against ships, particularly rigging, but relatively ineffective against infantry or stone walls.]

Africa: Marrakechi conversion efforts have made considerable progress in western sub-Saharan kingdoms; though nominally under the leadership of the Amir of Marrakech, these local kings are still relatively independent.

The Axumites have focused their efforts on naval expansion; they claim control over the entirety of the Nile, and have established a substantial naval base on Madagascar. The King of Axum has near-absolute control over his own people, but the gap between the Arabic-speaking Ismaili and the native peoples remains considerable, weakening control of the general populace.

The Kalif in Damascus exercises a very heavy hand on his nation. Between ruthless persecution of the myriad regional religions, and incessant war against the steppe tribes, the Macedonians, and the Axumites, the Ismaili Empire is slowly but surely exhausting itself. Trade and communication simply do not pass through the region, mostly routing themselves through Axum instead.

Asia: In southern India, Tamilakam has been united for the first time in its history (a feat never achieved in OTL). The Tamil nation, enriched by the fertility of the Deccan and by trade with Axum and China, is beginning to exert control over the rest of the subcontinent, though little overt warfare occurs.

[It should be noted that Asoka did not, as in OTL, convert to Buddhism; this caused the nascent religion to wither into obscurity.]

In China, after a period of famine, a Taoist-influenced peasant rebellion erupted (187; roughly equivalent to the OTL Yellow Turban Rebellion). Unlike in OTL, this rebellion achieves considerable success, especially after dissident generals and nobles see in it an opportunity to remove the current dynasty from power. When the dust finally settles, some fifty years later, the Empire of Han has been divided into three kingdoms, Wu, Wei, and Shu. Wei, in the north, has greatly changed its patterns of governance, slimming the bureaucracy considerably and devolving much control to the local level. Legalism is greatly diminished. Wu, in the south, remains largely similar to the Han, though a reduction in sea-trade results from the expense of the war. In the west, the rump state of Shu is a hotbed of brigandage and rebellion, used by its neighbors as a proxy battleground.

EurAD350.GIF
 
350-525

Europe:
Continued Irish expansion. Gades records the first raids of Irish longships on its shores; standing patrols of triremes (still the mainstay of Gadesian fleets) prove partially effective at repulsing such efforts.

Climactic changes force the steppe nomads westward; budding German expansion is halted by the hordes, and much former Gallic territory is overrun.

Asia:
The Ismaili Caliphate collapses in 381 amidst dynastic struggles, rebellion, and general exhaustion. By the time a new Caliph reaches power in 447, much of Anatolia has been seized by the Macedonians, the entire Arabian peninsula is under Axumite control, and a Marathi empire beginning to flex its muscles has seized the eastern Bactrian territories. The rump Caliphate is left in place primarily to serve as a buffer between the three states.

In China, Wu grows yet more totalitarian and militaristic. Wei is hard-pressed against the steppe nomads, and many peasants in the western provinces are displaced by territorial losses; many settle in the eastern peninsula of OTL Korea.

EurAD525.GIF
 
Not a whole lot, really. They're politically stable to the point of stagnation; they're wealthy enough that no peasant revolts upset things, but not wealthy enough to engage in serious military adventurism. They're getting some of the Gadesian philosophical Golden Age, and a fair bit of wealth from trade, but they're not at the cutting edge anymore.

Mostly, they're not doing much because they don't need to. Their fleets are strong enough to keep them safe from the Ismaili, the Gadesians and Macedonians have other things to worry about, and since they're democratic, bread and circuses keep them pretty happy.

If there's something I'm missing, feel free to point it out, but it just seemed to me that they've passed their prime.
 
525-650

Africa
531: An Axumite alchemist, attempting to recreate Alexandrian fire, accidentally ignites a flask containing a mixture of sulfur and saltpetre. The near-disaster triggers explorations into the nature of deflagration and rocketry.

534: The King of Axum places the rocketry project under strict governmental supervision and heavily funds it, seeing the potential for long-range incendiary weapons to finally counterbalance the Macedonian supremacy at sea.

542: The first galley-based rockets are tested in the Red Sea, and pronounced a limited success.

550: The first usage of rockets in battle, against the Macedonians off of Rhodes. The greatly superior range of the Axumite weapons more than counterbalances their relative inaccuracy, and Macedon loses a naval battle for the first time in over three hundred years.

552-578: The King of Axum dies without immediate heirs, and a vicious succession struggle erupts. Eventually, the kingdom is divided into a northern dynasty, based in Memphis, and a southern dynasty in Axum proper; only the extensive use of rockets prevents the neighboring kingdoms from seizing large swathes of territory during the war.

578-650: Memphis and Macedon fight a long series of wars; Axum concentrates on the south, expanding into sub-Saharan Africa, and on the east, increasing trade with Maharashtra.

Europe:
571-84: Gadesian alchemists unravel the secret of the Axumite rockets; they further decipher the basic principles governing their usage, and develop means of increasing range, accuracy, and efficacy (venturi to vector the thrust, fins to provide lift and stability, and the bursting warhead). The usage of these weapons drives Irish raiding away from southwestern Europe. Further developments of the technology are used on land, proving extremely effective against cavalry.

595: The Irish in the east have been hard-pressed for years to hold their ground against the Scandinavians; this year marks the fall of the last strongholds on the northern side of the Skagerrak, and the beginning of Germanic counter-raids against the Isles themselves.

603-617: Finn macLorcain, an Irish king in the Thames region, institutes a series of military and political reforms; extracting tribute from his neighbors in return for promised protection against the Scandinavians, he establishes a standing army and navy, which prove effective both at defending the shores and at increasing his control over the neighboring kingdoms. In 617, he is crowned High King. Though the Scandinavians largely parallel his innovations, these professional forces seldom meet on land; aside from occasional raids, both sides now find it more profitable to turn their attentions to the Gauls, Slavs, Huns, and others in the more fertile and less unified south.

643: A fleet from northern Scotland, on its way back from an unsuccessful
raid on Norway, is scattered by a storm; two vessels are blown north to Iceland, landing at OTL Hofn to repair and take on supplies. In the next few decades, the island will see a fair degree of immigration from political opponents of Finn Boru (so called for the Boru, or tributes, he exacts).

Asia:

540-589: The recently-ascended Emperor of Wu suffers a near-fatal bout of influenza; though he recovers physically, a high fever caused serious loss of brain function. Without an effective executive, corruption spreads rapidly.

Taking advantage of their neighbors' incapacity, Wei moves on Shu, annexing it fully by 553. Many of the non-Han peasants are used as forced labour to construct a series of fortifications and walls to protect the fertile northern plains from nomads.

612: The Maratha have been expanding trade throughout the region, in particular exploring and settling in the Indonesian archipelago. In this year, a group descended from the original Judean refugees emigrate en masse to the island of Sumatra; they seek independence, fearing (accurately) that centuries of close contact with Hinduism have severely altered their religious practices. The settlement meets with great success, unearthing gold mines and serving as a major trading hub between India and China.

643: Trading expeditions from Wei establish settlements on Kyushu; Taoist ideals swiftly percolate into Japan, along with Chinese goods and writing.
 
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