POD and WI: Italy punished in similar fashion to Japan after WWII

[Alexpira]

A POD after 1943 and WI after 1945: get Italy to be punished in similar fashion to Japan after WWII: an Allied-controlled government after the war, deep modifications into Italian social and economical model, faster modernization of economy and labour relations, suppression of nationalism and facist legacy.

What would be the long lastings impacts arising from a "Occupied Italy"?

 

[Mike Stearns]

You probably need to get the the Italians to buy into Hitler's views on race a lot more fully than they did in OTL. Fascist Italy could be unpleasant, especially for Jews and Atheists but Mussolini didn't particularly like Hitler and may actually have regretted enacting Italy's Naziesque racial laws. There is a reason why fascism is associated with World War II era Germany and not with Italy, where it originated.

 

[jmc247]

Nobody feared Italian militarism, it was the running joke of WW2 on all sides.

So very hard to accomplish.

 

[zeppelinair]

Nobody feared Italian militarism, it was the running joke of WW2 on all sides.

So very hard to accomplish.

This is what's quite surprising to me - Italy was on par or stronger than Japan in terms of general industrial and military power. But Italy is basically incomparable to Japan in terms of reputation during WWII. Japan being surrounded by weak neighbours can't be the only reason for this.

 

[MattII]

Would require several PoDs, among them being that Italy hangs on into at least '44 maybe '45.

 

[WeissRaben]

For Italy to be punished more harshly, you'd need it to be completely behind Mussolini at all times. Few remember that we fought a civil war, 1943-1945 (and, arguably, beyond).

 

[Dayton Kitchens]

Mussolini would have had to still be in power (firmly) until the end of the war.

Probably not even then.

Remember Italy found a reason to fight on the side of the allies in World War One. So Italy did not have the reputation of being on the "bad" side of two consecutive global wars within 30 years.

Part of the reason Germany was treated the way it was after World War Two was that after two global wars there was a general mood that "Germany had to be kept down"

 

[Just a Rube]

Eh, if Mussolini is still in power when Germany falls, there will probably be somewhat more thorough de-Fascistification of the nation and government. OTL, the Allies had a new government ready to go (and note that Italy did lose its colonies and the king abdicated).

If the US and UK go for an invasion of France in 1943 instead of Italy, you could see the Italians hold on longer and then get more thoroughly reconstructed.

The other obvious possibility is much weaker Western Allies (maybe the US stays out far longer), and Italy falls to the Soviets. That would lead to a fairly thorough restructuring, like it did in the rest of the Soviet bloc, but that might not be what the OP is looking for.

 

[Lateknight]

This is what's quite surprising to me - Italy was on par or stronger than Japan in terms of general industrial and military power. But Italy is basically incomparable to Japan in terms of reputation during WWII. Japan being surrounded by weak neighbours can't be the only reason for this.

Well their was the whole racial angle.

 

[Yanez de Gomera]

Avoid the destitution of Mussolini on the 25th of July 1943 and you will avoid the formation of (as big as OTL) Resistenza partisan insurgence. With hard liner fascists still in power there will also probably not be anything short of unconditional surrender and therefore no cobelligerance period. This will probably mean that Italy loses more on the eastern border (in such a scenario Trieste may remain a "Free City" or be included into Jugoslavia) and maybe there is a temporary French occupation zone in north western Italy (if you are willing to stretch things the Valle d'Aosta could go to France). There were also the talks of Sicily as an american state, but that would be ASB, although an independent Sicily might not be off the charts (would turn into a nice banana republic...).

Socially and Politically you would probably see more something akin to de-Nazification than what happened in Japan, because Italy still came from (in western eyes at least) a more solid history of constitutional government, closer to Germany than Japan.

But, how to accomplish all this? You have got to make the Fascist regime become more totalitarian and idealy to get rid of the King, or at least to make the Royal Family totally powerless, which is rather difficult without giant butterflies forming. A Fascist Party where the likes of Starace and Farinacci have even more influence might become more similar to what the National Socialists were doing in Germany, but it is not easy, because Mussolini was in the end an opportunist without a totally clear ideological base and because of the moderating influence of the Roman Catholic Church. On the other hand, if you somehow get the Futurist movement (there was a Futurist Political Party founded by Marinetti in 1918, but it became irrelevant. Here is its manifesto, unfortunately only in Italian and notable for its extreme anticlericalism, among other things) into political power, you could have interesting evolutions in Italian society, which would necessitate very deep reconstruction after the inevitable defeat in a WW2 equivalent.

EDIT: As to the impact of a Japanese solution to Italy (although it is imho implausible to transplant to Italy what happened to Japan, you would probably see on one hand a return to traditional Catholic values (especially if the alt-fascist regime had been strongly anticlerical), but on the other hand an even more thorough acceptation of "American" culture and lifestyle, with a significant suppression of communist and socialist parties. The economical evolution will probably be similar to OTL, with Italy using its comparatively cheaper manpower resources to have something similar to OTL's economical boom in the 50's and especially the 60's.The main difference will imho be in the names of the enterpreneurs, with the Agnelli family (FIAT owners) either purged by the regime or after for beng collaborators. Probably less State owned companies and an earlier influx of American (French in their occupation zone) companies controlling key industries (electricity, metallurgy, TLC etc). If the French occupation zone last long and extends to the whole of Piedmont and Liguria, the rest of Italy has lost much of its industrial heartland and this might hamper growth.

 

[RyuDrago]

Not necessarily it would be bad in the long term a total Allied occupation in Japan style for Italy or at least for certain sectors.

- Total occupation and seizure of overseas territories would be yes colonies taken away, but the pre-continental borders would remain untouched. So Tito can forget Istria.
- Zara could likely become the TTL Okinawa for Italy: an operational base for the US, it could be TTL Trieste (a free city), so later granted to Italy
- Preservation of the monarchy at all cost... So the 1946 Referendum will never be.
- Americans drafting the constitution... Our constitution's article 11 will not differ much to the ninth article of the Japanese constitution... But there is the issue of the army. However, it would be cool the existance of a "Forza di Auto Difesa Italiana", which today would be small but technologically advanced.
- Fiat and the air and naval industry would be scorporated... But instead to see part of them dismantled, they could recover and rejoice under American investments. Just thinking of the air and armour compartments of FIAT becoming indipendent companies instead to be closed.
- The Allies would take the dirty work from the Communists regard the epuration process... The main point is, how much the PCI would be stronger? Probably the DC would be however more hegemonic.

 

[Alexpira]

Not necessarily it would be bad in the long term a total Allied occupation in Japan style for Italy or at least for certain sectors.

- Total occupation and seizure of overseas territories would be yes colonies taken away, but the pre-continental borders would remain untouched. So Tito can forget Istria.
- Zara could likely become the TTL Okinawa for Italy: an operational base for the US, it could be TTL Trieste (a free city), so later granted to Italy
- Preservation of the monarchy at all cost... So the 1946 Referendum will never be.
- Americans drafting the constitution... Our constitution's article 11 will not differ much to the ninth article of the Japanese constitution... But there is the issue of the army. However, it would be cool the existance of a "Forza di Auto Difesa Italiana", which today would be small but technologically advanced.
- Fiat and the air and naval industry would be scorporated... But instead to see part of them dismantled, they could recover and rejoice under American investments. Just thinking of the air and armour compartments of FIAT becoming indipendent companies instead to be closed.
- The Allies would take the dirty work from the Communists regard the epuration process... The main point is, how much the PCI would be stronger? Probably the DC would be however more hegemonic.

And what about the impacts of a, let say, 1944/45 - 1950 Allied Occupation Government, over the Italian society and way of life?

 

[pattersonautobody]

With a post 1943 POD it is nigh impossible.

In short here is my reply: the Allies have to do way worse and the war has to go a lot longer. THe longer and more brutal it is, the worse the peace is. If Mussolini stays in power and the war is longer and more devastating to the allies, then the Allies will be more spiteful and will tear apart Italy.

One way to do it is a Western-Allies screw. Have D-Day fail because of a storm, have no Tunisgrad, and voila...the Soviets liberate Italy. If the Soviets liberate Italy and the war lasts longer, there will be some division of Italy and radical reconstructing of their government.

 

[RyuDrago]

And what about the impacts of a, let say, 1944/45 - 1950 Allied Occupation Government, over the Italian society and way of life?

Well the PCI would have to stay really, really cautious in the post-war years... Starting from the progressive disarm of its partisan cells. The party was armed when Togliatti was shot after all. TTL I guess they would receive a warning: "stay quiet or we will ban you". Maybe the left vote would advantage more the Socialists TTL. The CGIL may not be the dominant trade union of Italy.

The cinema would flourish, as OTL. But above all the comic production... The Americans which stays in Italy would surely like the Bonelli comics and spread them in the US. And Disney would further support the Italian Disney school as well. Eurodisney would likely be raised outside Rome.

 

[jmc247]

This TL is very hard as the world laughed at Italian militarism as the greatest joke of the war.

Il Duce say ordering that British and American POWs be killed and that gas be used on enemy forces might help get such a thing closer, but he would have had to do that before February of 1941 as once the DAK arrived Rommel would have effective veto power over such a decision.

If Italy started it earlier it would be interesting to see how the German Army would have dealt with it. I suspect once they got down to Africa messages would be passed via the Red Cross that they would stop the Italians from doing it if you stop using it as well.

 

[Yanez de Gomera]

Well the PCI would have to stay really, really cautious in the post-war years... Starting from the progressive disarm of its partisan cells. The party was armed when Togliatti was shot after all. TTL I guess they would receive a warning: "stay quiet or we will ban you". Maybe the left vote would advantage more the Socialists TTL. The CGIL may not be the dominant trade union of Italy.

The cinema would flourish, as OTL. But above all the comic production... The Americans which stays in Italy would surely like the Bonelli comics and spread them in the US. And Disney would further support the Italian Disney school as well. Eurodisney would likely be raised outside Rome.

Looks like a probable scenario (also I think that a prerequisite for this is no or very limited Resistenza, and that would deprive the PCI of much of its prestige),/nice idea with Bonelli, maybe he could be coopted by, for example, Marvel?

This TL is very hard as the world laughed at Italian militarism as the greatest joke of the war.

Il Duce say ordering that British and American POWs be killed and that gas be used on enemy forces might help get such a thing closer, but he would have had to do that before February of 1941 as once the DAK arrived Rommel would have effective veto power over such a decision.

If Italy started it earlier it would be interesting to see how the German Army would have dealt with it. I suspect once they got down to Africa messages would be passed via the Red Cross that they would stop the Italians from doing it if you stop using it as well.

Mmm I am not sure: I think that a different fascist regime, more similar to the Nazis, might get a similar treatment to Nazi Germany even without using gas or any such things. But there could have been extermination camps for Italian Jews if the fascists had been more antisemitic. And without cobelligerance and resistance there would be no legitimate Italian government working with the allies, so the occupation would have to be more direct and involved with reestablishing democracy in Italy.
Edit: depending of the royal family's role, monarchy could be enforced (reestablished maybe?) as a stabilising force, or they could be tried as war criminals? Rome trials besides Nuremberg and Tokyo?

 

[RyuDrago]

Okay, so let's see it from another perspective. Why the Americans applied the total occupation doctrine on Japan? To prevent a split with the Soviets.

At Yalta, Stalin and Roosevelt agreed that Italy would stay in Western sphere and Yugoslavia in Communist one. But now, what if Truman to push the roll back doctrine to the extreme, would have petitioned for the total occupation of Italy?

I don't know how he reacted to the fucilation of Mussolini, but in theory, as the Americans entered in the Padan valley and seeing the northern cities of Italy flocked of partisans, many socialists and communists... Also remembering how the Alexander proclamation failed miserably.

So, I guess to prevent troubles in the North, and not allowing Yugoslavia to push its border westwards, at Potsdam Truman would have asked Stalin to allow the total Allied occupation of Italy and pretending Tito's troops to pull out from Triest and Istria ASAP.

 

[jmc247]

Mmm I am not sure: I think that a different fascist regime, more similar to the Nazis, might get a similar treatment to Nazi Germany even without using gas or any such things. But there could have been extermination camps for Italian Jews if the fascists had been more antisemitic. And without cobelligerance and resistance there would be no legitimate Italian government working with the allies, so the occupation would have to be more direct and involved with reestablishing democracy in Italy.
Edit: depending of the royal family's role, monarchy could be enforced (reestablished maybe?) as a stabilising force, or they could be tried as war criminals? Rome trials besides Nuremberg and Tokyo?

That assumes Germany was punished how it was for the Final Solution and no I don't believe that. It was punished how it was for being seen as starting two World Wars in a half century.

The Final Solution didn't really have that much an impact on western policy toward Germany during or immediately after the war.

 

[RyuDrago]

Looks like a probable scenario (also I think that a prerequisite for this is no or very limited Resistenza, and that would deprive the PCI of much of its prestige),/nice idea with Bonelli, maybe he could be coopted by, for example, Marvel?

Or Marvel or DC or maybe even Warner bros... But only in TTL 2000's when those houses started to invest greatly in movie and games merch. And, in case of Marvel, in the end would be still Disney to say the last word.

 

[Alexpira]

Something that crosses my mind is the changes over Italy's worldwide opinion ( and why not say, love for things like Italian Cuisine, Fashion etc...) if Italy WWII status changed from OTL general view of "weak and clumsy enemies turned into friends and victims by 1943" to TLs "villains".

As an example, don't see the popularization of Italian "Dolce Vita" trend during late 50s to 60s if the country and its people's were seen as sons and daughters of War criminals, much like the general distrust that Europeans had from Germans until the early 60s.

Other important factor could be impacts in the integration of the Italian-American community into the "American mainstream society". Imagine that Italian Americans would try to expedite its full assimilation as a way to disconnect from the Italian "guilt", something like German-Americans after WWI

Well, what are the thoughts?