Please evalutate this idea

SATOR

Banned
I've got little time to write a TL latelly, and my experience in the field is really limited so i think it'll be a while before i attempt anything of the sort. Then again i've got this idea for a three-sides WW2/cold war that circles my brain... Could you please help evalutate it? I'd like it not to get ASB when i eventually write it.

Basically the core concept is: Rosa Luxemburg gets warned and doesn't die. She remains as master ideologue of the german comunist party. Revolution is attempted by 1924, and manages in north Germany/ Prussia and rheineland Etc. The alpine zones of germany (chiefly bavaria) are held by freikorps and become a fascist dictatorship (Rudolph von Sebottendorf might get to become really important...). Germany basically gets divided.
Fear of communism encourages britain and france to lend fascist italy and bavaria an hand, so the communist power (Comunist Prussia and CCCP) and the fascist ones (bavaria and italy) "divide" east europe in 2 zones of influence and start super industrializing. The comunist get poland, romania, hungary and a lot of guerrillas everywhere else. Bavaria anschlusses Austria and Czech republic, Italy makes puppets out of yugoslavian countries, greece, bulgary and Turkey.

Then in 1929 the economical crisis makes it impossible for the western powers to continue helping the fascist build in power: the fascists aren't under control anymore and think of themselves as a proper block... Spain joines them as per OTL.

The situation isn't as clear cut as fascism vs communism vs capitalism either, beacouse North Germany (for example) is Trotzkyst (the comintern is a mess!);
Italy sees itself like a paritary ally to bavaria so Mussolini isn't going to pass any racial law to appease hitler or whoever (freikorps were allready antisemitic, again, Sebottendorf?) and Japan is too far to be considered a reliable ally by either. Meanwhile capitalist countries are a Mess due to spies and agitators by both "blocks" and various comunist and fascist popular, violent movements: UK, France and USA risked at least a coup each in the last years.

So basically three sided cold war in the late '30s and early '40s, what di you think?
Extra fun: at least 1 country per block manages to build nukes, how can this happen? What next?
 
I wonder how the Communists get Hungary but lose Czechoslovakia.

Sure, Hungary actually had a brief Soviet OTL, but it got crushed; post-Locarno I gather (maybe wrongly) that reactionary interests strongly predominated in Hungary, which is why they joined the Axis so readily, I'm not aware of a strong indigenous Communist movement in Hungary from the 1920s on.

Whereas Czechoslovakia, as a liberal republic, often turned to Soviet support. To avoid getting swallowed up by German fascists, I can see them, without necessarily going Bolshevik themselves, making a strong alliance with the Communist bloc. It's geographically pretty awkward, with Bohemia thrusting a salient deep into the South German bulwark and nearly surrounded by it. But with the borders given at the end of WWI, it is defensible, and Bohemia was fairly well industrialized. The question is whether the Czechs could maintain hegemony not only over the Sudenten Germans but also their eastern Slavic partners in Moravia and Slovakia, with the southern Fascist bloc trying to prise them off. If the Czechs lose control of these eastern regions they lose their link to Russia, though the northern border of Bohemia might still front on some part of Spartacist Germany perhaps, if it reaches that far south.

This would be a somewhat complicated situation; OTL the Czechs relied more on the western Entente powers initially, but here they are betrayed by those powers going conservative and being willing to hand over Bohemia to the fascists. Both the Communist bloc and the Czechs would have to scramble fast to reconfigure and put up a sufficient show of force to keep Czechoslovakia free (as I would deem it, though perhaps the Party machinery goes to work ruthlessly and captures the nation as a less organically willing Worker's Republic; in the context of your timeline I might still champion the Communist bloc as freer than the fascist one anyway!)

Whereas Hungary just strikes me as a lost cause, short of overwhelming conquest which clearly the Communist bloc is incapable of yet in the 1920s-30s period.

Which raises the question of Poland; if the Communists don't get ahold of Poland they have a clear problem. But taking Poland is going to be very difficult for them!:eek:

I think the idea needs some serious detail work to shake it down, but I can certainly see something like this happening.

The most serious question is, how fast and hard would the Entente powers move to crush the north German Spartacists in the first place, and how effective would this blow be? Bearing in mind that domestic working people, in socialist parties and labor unions, in both Britain and France might move to oppose these strikes--but if that happens, isn't the great Revolution of all the core industrial powers now on the table?

I guess the way to work it would be, Britain and France do move to swat down the Spartacists, but uprisings among their working people do frustrate the stroke, and instead the governments of the leading Entente powers are preoccupied with putting these outbursts down. Presumably they have to use both carrot and stick, a major carrot being, they stand down from attacking the Germans--and instead focus on supporting the Alpine Germans as proxies. It is during this shenanigans, while France and Britain are rather paralyzed, that the Czechs align with the Communists and put up enough force to deter any sudden moves against them. Then it's an arms race, including a civil society reorganization race, to fortify the two sides in central Europe.

You're going to have to work out how Poland figures in though, that's beyond me!:eek: If I were writing it, I'd make the Communists have to work around an Entente/Fascist allied Poland--aiding subversion there where they can of course, but basically Poland doesn't fall short of crushing conquest.

So everyone has swords to their bellies and necks...
 
i like your Idea, SATOR
only i have some little problems with the Details:

a 1924 (or even 1920!) Revolution would be possibly. if there are help by foreign power, who want to weaken Weimar Republic.
how strong were Communist in French Government for that?
or could Belgium give support ?

There also the problem of Adolf Hitler. The solution: during Beer Hall Putsch, a bullet find his brain :rolleyes:
or Rudolph von Sebottendorf get rid of this nerve-racking austrian and his jabbering about National-socialism.

you can not "super industrializing" in only four years, but that partially not needed !
Bavaria had good industrial base with BMW and MAN, Dornier

what brings me to another problem
the communist take Germany/ Prussia and Rhineland, only The alpine zones of germany (chiefly bavaria) get Fascist ?
What happen with rest ? see map of Weimar Republic
846px-Deutsches_Reich2.png

the Blue area (include embedded area) the would be under Communist rules
Bavaria is bluegreen area
so what happen to Sachsen, Hessen, Baden, Wüttenberg and Thüringen are they buffer state ?

by the way
the Rhineland is under Allies control, mostly French and Belgium troops.
 

SATOR

Banned
Allright, so far so good!
@Delta Force: your timeline seems very interesting, i'll make sure to read it when i can
@Shevek: well it's all still in the pre-pre-pre planning phase :D i guess it makes more sense if "Bavaria" gets hungary and the Soviets or "Arbeitergewerkschaft"s
Get Chekoslovachia. It would be interesting in the chinese sense to hypotize a tl with communist Prussia and Russia and fascist Poland... But i kind of guess the most natural course would be for the two powers to "bribe" poland to their side, using intelligence agencies, secret profitable commercial treatyes and other "presents" to slowly get poland to their side. This would probably involve more religious freedom and general freedom/democracy in poland compared to other countries in the red block (even if i imagine comunist Prussia as pretty democratic...): basically the Red Duo would probably do anything to get them aboard withouth invading... Possibly really funny considering how the polish were invaded by both, i can really see polish government exploiting the situation to humiliate the would be comrades and generally playing hard to get:D
@Michael Van: Yeah you dispatched of hitler much in the same way i would. Alternativelly he just becomes one of his sycophants/ideologues, his artistic tensions finally resolved by writing speeches or painting propaganda posters or who knows what combinations of the two. A secondary public figure, whose charisma gets used by the figure head noble Sebottendorf would place on top of south germany (knowing him he'd much rather be the power behind the throne with his Thule Society).
Looking at the Map: south Germany proper before anschluss with Austria would be bavary+ hessen+ Württemberg+ Baden+ turingya and Sachsen, everything else would be Communist "Prussia" (i'll call the comunist north Prussia and the fascist south Bavary for simplicity). Slovenjia would probably end in their sphere of influence to let them have a port (Fiume?)
 

SATOR

Banned
Oh, on Rhineland: i guess that when the revolution came, the coalminers and assorted proletariat of the place would revolt kicking the entente's troops out: they would try retaking it latelly but by then the freikorps would have failed their "liberation" of the north so communist north Germany would be largelly taken as fait accomplie
 
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