PLC Survives as a Great Power TL

So I am considering working on a PLC timeline which has it surviving as a great power into the modern age. I'm thinking generally of a PoD between 1618 and 1721.

I just thought I would post this thread for suggestions and discussion.

Right now what I'm currently mulling over is the deluge, avoiding it seems like an obvious starting point to keep Poland with a more powerful base. But what I am having a hard time with is figuring out what can provide a shock to the Polish system to reform the government and military establishments and end the Liberum veto.
 
Perhaps delay any partition until the Napoleonic Era. It would be interesting to see what would happen...
 
So I am considering working on a PLC timeline which has it surviving as a great power into the modern age. I'm thinking generally of a PoD between 1618 and 1721.

I just thought I would post this thread for suggestions and discussion.

Right now what I'm currently mulling over is the deluge, avoiding it seems like an obvious starting point to keep Poland with a more powerful base. But what I am having a hard time with is figuring out what can provide a shock to the Polish system to reform the government and military establishments and end the Liberum veto.

Well if memory serves me right, wasn't it hardly ever used prior to the 17th century (the liberum veto)? If so, could that be reason to get rid of it, before it starts to get used incessantly?
 
1) Ducal Prussia stays Polish. This would vastly increase Baltic trade and limit the power of the Hohenzollerns

2) Zygmunt II abolishes the liberum veto and the right of rebellion at the Union of Lublin, with obvious results.

3) The Vasas don't become rulers of Poland. This means no foolhardy ventures to conquer Russia, probably less Swedish-Polish hostility due to the fact that their rulers weren't cousins n' all, so maybe no Deluge. It is also more likely that Sigismund remains King of Sweden, and this might have interesting repercussions.

4) Wladyslaw IV or Jan Kazimierz are more charismatic, meaning that they can push through reforms of the Army and set up a navy (W IV built a couple of warships OTL but the Sejm didn't see it as a priority, so by the Deluge they were rotting in Gdansk)

The further we go into the PLC period, the less likely its survival becomes. Jan Sobieski retaking Kamienec Podolski, gaining an outlet on the Black Sea and bringing the Cossacks to heal would help, but even then there's Napoleon to consider.

An interesting change would be to have only Poles elected: no pleasure-seeking Wettins or power-mad Vasas. A good POD is Jan Zamoyski standing for and winning a Royal election.If he can establish a dynasty (a big if) and his family is basically similar to OTL, this charming little King-list would result:
- Jan II Zamoyski (1542 - 1586 - 1615)
- Tomasz Zamoyski (1694 - 1615 - 1648)
- Jan III Sobiepan Zamoyski (1627 - 1648 - 1665) his wife married Jan Sobieski after his death
- Michal Korybut Wisniowiecki (1640 - 1665 - 1673) is he impossible to butterfly, I wonder?
- presumably Jan Sobieski, whose son might be able to succeed him in this xenophobic climate.
This scenario is rip for a PLC-wank
 
I'm having difficulty figuring out the exact extent of the demographical damage caused by the deluge. Anyone have some ideas?
 
I've been thinking about similar TL. My idea was to make use of Sigsmund 3rd private army- Lisowczycy and use them in similar manner as Ivan 4th did in Russia. To lesser extent, after all Sigsmund doesn't have to kill his son- but he could use them to force reforms, remove opposition, destroy magnates... Of course it would surely end with confederation and rebellion, but before it'd happen, he could have threaten out half of country. And aristocracy was never more efficient than professional soldiers.
 
I'm having difficulty figuring out the exact extent of the demographical damage caused by the deluge. Anyone have some ideas?

According to Wikipedia, as much as 40% of the Polish population was wiped out during the Deluge (and much higher in some places), with almost every city being sacked. The population of Warsaw for example, went from 20,000, to 2,000.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deluge_(history)

"According to the 2012 Polish estimates, financial losses of Poland are estimated at 4 billion zlotys. Swedish invaders completely destroyed 188 cities and towns, 81 castles, and 136 churches in Poland.[10]"
 
According to Wikipedia, as much as 40% of the Polish population was wiped out during the Deluge (and much higher in some places), with almost every city being sacked. The population of Warsaw for example, went from 20,000, to 2,000.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deluge_(history)

"According to the 2012 Polish estimates, financial losses of Poland are estimated at 4 billion zlotys. Swedish invaders completely destroyed 188 cities and towns, 81 castles, and 136 churches in Poland.[10]"

According to "God's playground", overall population loss amounted to average 30%. With some areas being only mildly affected, while others totally or at least heavily depopulated.
 
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