Playing with Mirrors

Eh, what's the worst that could happen?

Footpath (“pavement”) shared use paths interrupted by drive ways and side streets with side street priority. Painted door zone lanes. Painted shoulders covered in constant debris. “Path ends” at vital connection. Municipal and state road agencies having shit fights over vital connection zones with the state agency trying to implement a freeway policy developed in 1947

You know.

New South Wales.
 
Story Post XXV: The Backlash to the Political Order in the US
Okay! Time to put the spaghetti in the machine! We're back with a longer-than-usual one, and today it's all about backlash. Not the most enjoyable subject, but give it a try, anyway.

#25

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Pictured: Phyllis Schlafly takes on the ERA one more time, 1982.


1982

The Fred Fiske Show, WAMU. Fred's talking to frequent guest, budding political expert James Carville.

“It’s often said that voters vote their pocketbooks first. What effect has the gas tax had on President Anderson’s popularity?”

“Surprisingly, not as much as you’d think, Fred. He’s certainly taken a hit, and the tax itself is far from popular, especially among existing homeowners. Since the tax came fully onto the books, Anderson’s approval ratings have dropped by some four points, with the gas tax being the most common complaint people have.”

“Of course any drop is unwelcome for a president, but four points is hardly a, a...landslide.”

“That's exactly right, Fred. Here's the thing: when it comes to gas, there’s plenty of blame to go around. We’ve all heard the stories of protests around the country, decrying the rise in gas prices. But the character of those protests varies significantly each time they happen.”

“Ah, so for example the Texas protests have been largely focused on the president, while in Chicago recently, we heard a lot of invective against the oil companies.”

“Exactly, and in the editorial pages you often see the OPEC states as a major target. People don’t really seem to know where to direct their anger. They're riled and raring, but in no one clear direction. Meanwhile, to get back to your comment about how consumers vote, what they do know is that there were lines for gas under Jimmy Carter, and now you can always seem to get as much gas as you want.”

“If you can afford it.”

"Well, that sure is the kicker, ain't it?"

----

July, 1982

Chicago Tribune

Two cyclists were killed and two more injured this morning after being struck by a car in what appears to be a deliberate act.

Shortly before 8:30 am, a driver accelerated to jump the curb protecting the Kinzie Street Bikeway and plowed into the cyclists waiting for the light to change to cross Wells Street. The driver, whose identity has not yet been released by the police, tried to make a getaway in his vehicle, but the car became stuck in the narrow bikeway. Nearby patrolmen forced him from the car and arrested him on the spot.

Witnesses described the driver as struggling violently with the police while shouting about, “hippies stealing the road from its rightful owners,”- assumed by the witnesses to mean automobile-drivers.

While the number of cycling injuries and fatalities have increased nationwide over the past year, experts are saying that this is most likely growing pains. The number of cyclists is increasing, while drivers are still getting used to them.

This, however, appears to be the first time cyclists have been targeted for violence.

It is similar in character to the recent attempted firebombing on the Atlanta Subway by three so-called “Motorist’s Rights Activists.” The group released a manifesto over the objection of their attorney, protesting any prioritization of resources for transit over drivers, characterizing the rise in gas prices as an anti-car conspiracy, and calling for citizens to “take back the streets.”

----

September 1982

Peoria Journal Star

Two more local schools were vandalized over the weekend in what police are treating as a potential hate crime. Richwoods High School and Rolling Acres Middle both saw their bus lots targeted with graffiti reading, “Locals Only,” accompanied by piles of flaming debris.

They join Peoria “Central” High, which suffered minor fire damage last month after an accelerant-aided blaze was started in the school dumpsters. No graffiti was discovered in that incident, but police are pursuing a theory that the crimes might be linked.

These acts occur in the midst of the state’s uniform adoption of federal school integration standards. Peoria is one of the last major municipalities in Illinois to conform to the program.

----

Mid-1982

Arnold works for the American Conservative Party as a fixer. He’s currently in rural Arizona putting out a fire in a county party dispute. The crisis is almost over; he just needs to finish some hand-holding with one of the local party squires.

“Look. I’ll be the first to admit it: this situation wasn’t handled well.”

“No consultation.”

“I know.”

“No local input, no support.”

“I know. I know. Believe me, you are heard.”

“They just came in and took over.”

“And that’s why they’re gone now. Right? That’s why your people are back in charge.”

“And I see that you’re listening now. I think we all- well, mostly all- we see that now. And we appreciate it. But it never should’ve happened in the first place.”

“You’re right.”

“I mean this is no way to run a party. You’ve got to earn people’s trust. You’ve got to let the locals show you how it’s done around here. Around any place.”

“You’re right.”

“My people have been here for fifty years building this party. Well, building the Republican Party first, of course, turning it into a good, Christian conservative base. And when the schism happened we were all delighted. We thought, ‘Finally, we have a political movement that really reflects our vision for the nation,’ you know?”

“I know exactly. We all felt it.”

“And then you send down this new county chairman- appointed by those slick fellas down in Phoenix, never even been in our county, mind- and he’s just...he’s not for us.”

“It shouldn’t have ever happened. I regret even needing to come out here, though I’m glad I got to meet you fine people.”

“He came in here and sounded like some slick Easterner, you know? Talking about economics and small government and no rules. Don’t get me wrong, we’re all of us in favor of smaller government. But this fella...he wanted to push for legalized gambling and he wanted to get rid of the blue laws and he had a very free way of talking to the ladies, I might add.”

“I can see you’re still very upset by it and I wish I could do more. If I told you it would never happen again, that the people of this county will always be the voice of the party in this county, would that-”

“That’s all we want. That’s all we want.”

“Well you’ve got it. You know I respect what you’re saying and I love your vision. I guess the only thing I’d ask from you, when it comes to dealing with the party at the state level or the national level, is to just keep an open mind. Your community will always, as far as the Conservative Party is concerned, always be run how you locals like it. And that’s true for any community, anywhere. But nationally, we have to recognize that we are a coalition. You know, there are these libertarians who want to try to run things with fewer laws of any kind. There are folks back East who want to fight against this invasion from socioeconomic minorities. There are folks down south trying to hold onto their heritage. There are lots of different ways of being a Conservative. And we have to learn to get along if we’re going to have any success.”

“I understand that, sir, I certainly do. And I think as far as nationally goes-”

“You think you can support a national ticket, even if-”

“Yessir, we were willing to make compromises for the Republicans now and again and the one’s you’re asking are a lot less onerous.”

“You can do it?”

“We can do it. Yessir.”

“Mr. Campbell, I appreciate it. I think we’re going to do great things together.”

“Thank you again for getting on this situation. And I really appreciate you coming down here in person all the way from Washington.”

“This is what I do, this is how we’re going to win. Not by spending time in DC.”

Mr. Campbell makes as if to spit.

“To hell with that place.”

They shake hands.

----

The next stop on Arnold’s Western tour: Nevada. This time the issue's a lot thornier. He has the local party boss meet him outside the local jail.

“How many arrested?”

“Six. At least two more ran off.”

“And how many party members?”

“All of them. Two were at the state convention. One of them- Bundy, the one in the hospital now- he even gave a speech.”

“Christ. He gonna live?”

“Shot through the shoulder, he’ll be alright.”

“And the agent?”

“She’s going to live. Might be paralyzed, at worst. The horse had to be put down, if that’s of any concern.”

“Who cares about the fucking horse, Ted?”

“People out here will. Shooting a horse out from someone…”

“Christ. So the lawyer’s in there with them now. Did any of them talk before he got here?”

“They told me they didn’t, but they were all looking pretty damn sheepish when I went in. I asked around and haven’t heard anything. If BLM have anything they’re not releasing it yet. They’ve been on lockdown in the station since the FBI arrived.”

“When you spoke to them, did they have their stories straight.”

“I think so. They all came quiet enough, I think they’re telling the truth.”

“So tell me what they're saying.”

“They were riding herd on federal land without permits. BLM agents approached. This happens all the time now around here, so everybody knew what was what. The ranchers won’t back down, the BLM don’t have the manpower to enforce the laws. Usually threats are exchanged and the ranchers move off. It’s just how it works around here these days.”

“Not just here.” Arnold’s office got reports almost daily of confrontations with federal agents over what certain voices in the Conservative Party were calling 'violations of sovereign rights.' Mostly concentrated here in the West, but not exclusively.

“Right. So this time they pull out their rifles- all marked with yellow tape. I know the BLM has been briefed on that.”

“If someone pulled a gun on you with yellow tape around the stock, would you trust that it was really only loaded with rubber bullets?”

“Well...fair enough, I guess. Anyway, things get heated. Some idiot- I think it was Bundy- he shoots at the ground, maybe accidentally, maybe accidentally on purpose, and it ricochets and hits the agent’s horse. She’s thrown, shots are fired, everyone on our side throws their guns and hugs dirt. Except the two who bolted. Only Bundy was hit on our side.”

“You need to stop saying shit like that. Our side. The national party isn’t going to let a few drunken cowboys drag us into a national fight with federal law enforcement.”

“Around here that’s how-”

“This isn’t about your podunk cowtown anymore, Ted. The FBI is involved now. People like the FBI. Conservative people. You got a different perspective, fine, but you keep that shit in your pants until the media’s out of here. Am I understood?”

“Yeah, heard, understood.”

“Okay. Alright. Jesus, what time is it? Okay, here’s what we’re gonna do. I’m gonna talk to the lawyer when he comes out. I don’t want to talk to any of them. You keep me out of the same room as them. If it’s like you say, we’ll issue a statement of regret, tragic accident, um...respect for law enforcement, all that shit. But we’ll lay the blame on Washington forcing good people like officer...what’s her name?”

“Agent Simms”

“-Like Agent Simms here, to enforce unenforceable and unconstitutional laws. You’ll get your angle in, we protect our base, Bundy takes the blame, and...hopefully this blows over.” As he says it, he knows it’s bullshit. This was bound to happen sooner or later, and it’s going to happen again. Only next time it’ll probably be on purpose.

“There’s only one problem with all that: Bundy. I know him, he’s gonna want to fight this.”

“Oh I have no doubt! And let him. Hell, we’ll even find a way to fund his case, as long as he’s drumming up outrage among the right kinds of people. Backdoor, of course, we’ll find some third-party to pay a firm.”

“As long as you don’t try to shut him up or take a plea. He wouldn’t like that.”

“Fine, let him milk this for all it’s worth. But I trust you to know how to manage this from both sides. Officially, you tow the line. Unofficially...it's your community, you know what to say to your people. Okay. Well I need to limit my direct exposure here, so I’m going back to the hotel. Send the lawyer over when he’s done. I’ll get the statement to you tomorrow, then I’m gone before you give it, is that understood?”

“Sure thing.”

“I don’t want to be mobbed by press at the airport.”

“10 AM flight, 12 noon statement, I can do that.”

----

Oh but we can go so much lower! Dateline: rural Oregon. John is running for congress, and Arnold needs to have a talk with him.

“Look. We don’t want to lose you.”

“I don’t want to be lost.”

“You’re a great candidate. Charismatic. A veteran. Family man. But you hid this from us.”

“We’re not connected.”

“You’re cousins. He lives twenty miles away.”

“I haven’t seen him in years.”

“His boys have been out campaigning for you.”

“I can’t help that! I can’t stop people from supporting what they w-”

“They had official campaign materials from your office. Pamphlets, signs. Is this office the only place you keep that stuff?”

“Yes. Well. What if they got them direct from the printers have you che-”

“Neo-nazis didn’t get your flyers from the printers, John. If you didn’t speak to your cousin, someone here did.”

“Look, I know things are running hot right now, but there’s a difference between a legitimate white pride organization and the neo-N-”

“Are you hearing yourself, John? Are you imagining I’m the press? Imagine I’m the press, and say again what you just said to me.”

“You know I’m more careful than that, Arnold, I would never. This is just brass tacks here, you and me, cutting through the bullshit.”

“The bullshit is thick today, John. We’d need a chainsaw.”

John is getting pissed.

“...Alright, alright. I’ll tell you what. I’m gonna tell you exactly how it went. There's no need, because it'll never fucking get out, but I'm gonna give you what you want. You know why? Because you need me. You need me. This party is too new to stand much turbulence. Yeah, you’ve got the national organization, you’ve got those big donors, you’ve got the magazines. But you’re thin on the ground, Arnold. And you can’t afford to throw away a first-rate candidate who knows how to win. Here’s the honest truth: I’m not connected. Nobody can connect me. It was one phone call, on a payphone, back in Portland. Nowhere near the district, even. No names were used. I left the door to headquarters open over night, and in the morning some flyers were gone, that’s all anybody knows.”

“...That’s a hell of a risk, my friend, just to distribute some fucking flyers.”

“All respect, Arnold? And yes, you’ve got a serious reputation, so I do respect you? But you don’t know how it works out here. That part of the district? That’s what plays. I need those boys to get the word out to the right people, and to...you know, put the fear of god into the wrong people. They’re not really there to get people to vote for me so much as to convince others they’d rather stay home that day. And if a few flyers make them feel like they're a real part of the team, well that's a cheap and easily deniable price to pay, don't you think?”

“Okay, John. Whatever you say. You want to keep feeding me lines, I can leave right now.”

“Feeding you lines, I just told you what you wanted to know!”

Arnold pulls a file out of his briefcase and opens it. It’s a xeroxed ledger.

“Dana’s Roadhouse; maximum contribution. Cascade Gas n’ Go; maximum contribution. Conrad Used Auto Parts; maximum contribution. I have...nine more here. All received on the same day. All from your cousin’s home range.”

“If he had anything to do with that, it’s still nothing to do with me.”

“Look, John. Your cousin’s been to jail twice for selling smack. Let’s ignore his white power shit for a second. If he were just tagging swastikas on the library or harassing the local Salish, I mean you can duck that, I trust you know how to duck that. But if your cousin is using this campaign to launder drug money? That is when we start to get involved.”

John stares at the pages on the desk and runs his hands through his hair.

“Shit.”

“From the look on your face I’d say you didn’t know about this. But that still leaves you exposed.”

John sits down heavily. Arnold sits quietly, letting the realization sink in.

“There’s an art to this, John. We can help you get your message out to, er, the Right People, as you say, and still keep your nose clean. All you have to do is let us help you.”

There’s something about giving up control that grates like nothing else on a certain type of man. Unfortunately, that type of man was just about exactly who the American Conservative Party was being built for. Still, there was a time and a place. John nods.

“What do I have to do.”

----

2017

University of Connecticut (Go Huskies). The lecture in progress is POLS 1002, Introduction to Political Theory.

“The American Conservative Party emerged in 1981 with several clear advantages over previous attempted third parties in the United States. They had a slew of veteran politicians already in office; a well-developed party infrastructure; and a diverse and motivated constituency.

“Defections to the party were initially controversial, even in what would become relatively safe Conservative seats. For senators and governors who had not participated in the 1980 elections, the transition was generally smooth. But for those who had run the previous November under a different banner, all the time intending to defect, the public raised no small amount of outcry. Two governors faced recall elections in 1981, as well as more than 100 other elected officials nationwide.

“Though both governors survived, about 25% of recalls were successful, a blow to the party, but not a fatal one. And once this crisis of legitimacy was overcome, the party’s existence was treated as a fait accompli to most of the electorate.

“The party infrastructure had an even smoother transition to this new conduit of power. On the whole the (small-c) conservative political support industry in the United States had already been isolated before 1981. While making frequent and bold attempts to become the dominant faction within the Republican Party, their 60 years of failure to promote a conservative agenda at the national level always kept them from really overwhelming the existing, moderate Republican establishment. On the Democratic side, the system had been bifurcated for considerably longer, with two fully-developed infrastructures existing side by side with relatively little interaction since really the Gilded Age.

“These publications and organizations were used to picking at the scraps of the political establishment; of maintaining the staffing and brain power to capitalize on any opportunity that presented itself as quickly and thoroughly as possible, as their moments in the sun never seemed to last very long.

“Therefore when the political order split, these entities were, on the whole, ready and eager to finally put their unused political machines to the test. True, some think tanks and publications suffered schisms, but most institutions emerged more or less fully intact.

“There were also some who were less than happy at the split, but who saw little choice but to make the best of the way things were now. The Heritage Foundation, for example, had probably found greater success than any conservative institution in at least having their arguments listened to under the old political order. Now, the two parties representing the bulk of political power in the country wouldn’t answer their phone calls. Bitter and determined, they moved forward. The same could be said for much of the donor class. The Conservative Experiment would certainly be well-funded from day one.

“The party also had a boon over other third parties in terms of its constituency. In the history of the country ideas had frequently emerged that were popular enough to form a third party around. But if an idea appeals to, say, one in five citizens spread roughly evenly across the country, there’s no real chance they’ll ever exercise any political will in a democracy.

“Conservatives tended to be concentrated in the south, the inland west, and in parts of the midwest. They could also count on individual candidates in other parts of the country to pull in 35% or 40%; enough to win in a three-way election.

“A preview of this phenomenon was on view in Connecticut in 1980, albeit with a slightly different ideological makeup. James Buckley managed to win over Democrat Chris Dodd and a creditable left-wing third-party candidate with only 40% of the vote.

“Still, the Conservative constituency was far from uniform. Maintaining it through these early election cycles was the most significant task faced by party leadership, even more so than winning elections. Religious conservatives, law and order conservatives, Wall Street libertarians, cowboy libertarians, Cold Warriors, Southern segregationists, northern anti-integrationists and a host of smaller, more esoteric factions, all jockeyed for position in the new party.

“The 1982 primaries would be the biggest test to the Conservative coalition. While the rhetoric on the campaign trail was often fiery, the worst failed to happen and the coalition remained intact once the votes were counted. After all, most of these voters had reluctantly supported far less appealing candidates as Democrats and Republicans. Of course a fundamentalist would support a libertarian, and vice versa.

“This is not to say the US political order was stabilizing. Simply having three viable parties was a deep, existential threat to the American system. But it would require the political order to come to grips with the fact that the Conservatives weren’t going anywhere before they could begin to think about fixing things.”
 
Story Post XXVI: State of Play before the '82 Midterms
#26

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Maryland politics: as fractured as its donuts


Spring 1982

Washington Post Magazine

Maryland has long been a state that exists in the gray areas. A border state in the old days, with southern sympathies but northern industrial habits. A state of varied demographics, with strong but never dominant communities coexisting (sometimes uneasily, sometimes harmoniously) side by side.

In politics, she has a well-earned reputation as a swing state when it comes to federal contests. Since 1948 Maryland has voted five times for the Republican and four times for the Democrat in presidential elections. In that same timeframe Maryland has elected five Democrats and four Republicans to the senate. At the state level, things have tended to sway more in the direction of the Democratic Party, but that reflects the old New Deal Coalition of rural conservatives and more urban liberals, with certainly less of the liberal consensus seen in more northerly states and a much more muted brand of white chauvinism than was seen in the deep south during the First Civil Rights Movement.

In many ways, Maryland’s complicated equilibrium makes it the perfect terrarium in which to observe national political trends and the effects the new three-party political order is having on the union.

Perhaps the most notable change is the split in the African American vote. Long trending towards the Democratic Party, the Anderson administration’s embrace of a Second Civil Rights Movement has turned the lockstep community on its head. But rather than migrate en masse to the GOP, the black community seems to be splitting along class and geographic lines.

The two new poles of African American power are Democratic Baltimore and the DC suburbs of Prince George’s County, which are trending more and more Republican. The wealthiest majority African American county in the country, Prince George’s also supports a significant federal workforce and many military facilities. These thoroughly middle class communities are well positioned to take best advantage of the recent changes in the tax code. And the anti-racist crusader, Attorney General Samuel Pierce, is as much of a household name here as Jesse Jackson.

Meanwhile in Baltimore, widespread systemic poverty remains the top issue. There, black leaders are calling for a resumption of Martin Luther King Jr.’s Poor People’s Campaign- a direct confrontation of inequality and class barriers rather than what is perceived as Anderson’s roundabout focus on access to financial institutions and education outcomes. Though leaders might praise the NATCO program, they say it doesn’t go far enough.

Leaders in Baltimore are also worried about the growing influx of what they term “outsiders.” These are new (and sometimes even returning) residents to the city, bringing ethnic diversity to some majority-black neighborhoods. There are allegations of colonization, and of old-time residents being outbid for available homes. At the moment these cries are faint, as the city has a surplus of land and housing from 20-30 years of population loss.

The Republicans are also making major inroads with the state’s rural African American population. These tend to be more socially conservative, economically populist voters who are uncomfortable in any party. But given the state Democratic Party’s powerful liberal wing, these low-key voters are finding the moderate GOP a more comfortable home these days. With registered Republicans making up almost 40% of the black community going into the primaries, Maryland represents the current high-water mark for the GOP in terms of African American outreach.

The other significant story in Maryland is where the American Conservative Party has found its home. Over a very short period of time, the Eastern Shore has turned itself into a bulwark for the ACP. Unlike the agricultural regions of the Midwest, which have tended to split in the new three-party order somewhat evenly between populist “New Deal” impulses and fundamentalist conservatism, the Eastern Shore has seen very little leftist mobilization. With rural African Americans moving to the GOP and most younger conservative voters moving to the CP, the Democrats are left with a generational split. They can generally count on older voters in this region; lifelong conservative Democrats, mostly. But this is a demographic time bomb that may keep them from being competitive in the region in the coming years.

The Appalachian west of the state has also seen a Conservative insurgency, but here they are met by both the traditional small-holder Republican mentality that’s survived since the Civil War, and the rising fortunes of the labor vote in the Democratic Party. The old mill towns and mining communities are experiencing a boom in terms of employment and construction, particularly along the revitalizing rail corridor from Frederick to Cumberland.

The Conservatives have also made some important inroads into the wealthier areas in the central part of the state. While their numbers here are small, this is an important fundraising area both locally and nationally.

The remaining slice of the Maryland pie- white working class and middle class voters- has experienced some of the same sorting that we’ve seen nationally. Namely, working class voters, seen as poachable under Nixon, are hewing more closely than ever to the Democratic Party. While the middle class- often enamored of liberal lions in the past three decades- is finding Anderson’s brand of Republicanism very comforting. There are also some interesting corollaries in the data that show the potential for a voter breakdown to emerge around the level of a voter’s education.

Poll-watchers and other experts believe all of these shifts in power point to a bright future for the Republicans in the state, at least for the next few election cycles. But given the volatility of the current political climate, they are quick to hedge their bets and remind us: anything is possible.

----

June 1982

Fort Worth

The Texas state Democratic Party convention. What a shit show. The program was full of speakers nobody was listening to; panels everyone shouted through; and dinners that turned into armed camps, with each table its own discrete faction.

The surface tension of the party had always been strained, and in recent years it was threatening to burst. In the months leading up to the convention, the Democrats had split into more than half a dozen major caucuses- caucuses, not entirely new parties, at least for the moment- some with membership overlapping, others almost wholly cut off from the rest. Some factions were in constant, close negotiations. Others weren’t talking to anyone.

This reflected the national mood of the party almost exactly. The Democrats were suffering from an identity crisis. It seemed like common ground was slipping away from the diverse constituents that had long made up the party. The moderates were pleading with the populists. The populists were trying for an alliance with the minorities. The remaining conservatives were shouting into the wind. The environmentalists weren’t talking to organized labor. Labor was badgering the moderates. The rural progressives were at war with the urban progressives. The African Americans were at war with each other. The Hispanics were quietly leaving. The Asians were already gone.

Still, if you could just get them all to vote, they easily represented a majority of citizens. Certainly here in Texas, probably in the nation at-large. If you could just get them all to vote...that was a puzzle people had struggled to figure out since FDR.

And so the mess continued, an air of pure aimlessness settling over the convention. In truth, everyone was waiting for 1984. Who would be the nominee? They had the chance to shape the direction of the party for a generation, to settle once and for all what the pecking order would be. Everyone thought their faction had a chance to come out on top. Everyone was secretly weighing their options should they fail.

The same conversations were happening across the nation.

----

He’d been ducking their advances for weeks now. They’d made appointments, which always got canceled at the last minute. Phone calls were not returned. Confronting him in public or, god forbid, at one of his fundraisers was out of the question at this early stage. They even staked out his law offices, and were starting to be convinced he had some sort of escape hatch nobody knew about.

They needed a change of tactics. They sent the problem back to Washington, which spun the wheel and came up with Denise Mannard, currently an organizer in the Pacific Northwest. She hopped-to quick enough when the brass asked her, and immediately booked a flight and sent a telegram to her old college friend.

Two days later Denise is joined at a passable bistro (considering the location) by a woman who is...probably not trying to dress like a spy from a 1940s movie...but she’s not not trying at the same time. The wide-brimmed hat looks good on her, and the open lapels of the coat effectively mimic a trench coat feel.

There’s small talk for a while, followed by what seems like small talk but is in fact very pertinent to the reason Denise is here.

“Gosh you know it’s been so long. I can’t even remember when the last time we saw each other.”

“It had to have been Wellesley.”

“Of course...you know, I think we could even pin it down further.”

The other woman looks the slightest bit embarrassed. “It was probably a club meeting.”

“Yes, I bet you’re right. Gee, if the Wellesley Young Republicans could only see you now, huh?”

“Yeah, well. You know how it goes. People change.”

“Things were definitely changing then. Civil Rights. Vietnam. Anyone could understand how those might turn a person upside down. Politically-speaking, that is. You always went to where your truth was and everyone admired you for it.”

“They were all great girls, and our heads were in the right place. I don’t regret my time with the group.”

“From what I hear your husband is the same way. Always cuts through the bull, focuses on what’s possible. You know he’s widely admired, even on our side of the aisle.”

“Well I’m glad to hear it. I hope they’ll keep that in mind when he’s campaigning against Governor White.”

“So, it’s true, then? He’s going for another try?”

“That’s the plan.”

“It’s going to be a crowded field from what I hear.”

“So all the better for the man with the most name recognition.”

“It’s a shame about the confusion going on, with the Conservatives muddying the waters. You don’t really know who will show up to vote.”

“We’ve done the legwork. We’ll be alright.”

“Maybe. But from what I hear, the old rank and file of your party are out rallying for the ACP, leaving the Arkansas Democrats with a very altered constituency. A lot of populists, a lot of African Americans, and some strange pockets here and there.”

“No offense to your national strategy, but Bill will have no trouble winning the moderates back from the GOP. White is a-” She looks around and lowers her voice, “-nutcase. Frankly I’m surprised he hasn’t defected to the Conservatives.”

“So are we.”

The revelation hangs in the air for a moment, and the moment stretches. Both take a long sip of their drinks as Hillary Clinton- once and future first lady of Arkansas-’s eyebrows disappear into her hat brim. Denise continues.

“We think he’ll wait until after the filing date then announce he’s running on the Conservative ticket. In fact we know it. His office leaks like a sieve. That’s why we’re looking for a challenger now.”

“...I see…and you thought…”

“Your husband’s a great candidate, Hill. Charismatic and pragmatic, everything we want the new GOP to be going forward.”

“From what I hear the Republican brand isn’t doing so well in Arkansas.”

“Damn right, it’s not. We need help. Just the kind of help Bill can provide. Have you been following what George Christopher’s doing over at the RNC? 80% of new recruits for the House this year are from the centrist wing of the party. These are fellas with functionally the same beliefs as your husband. It’s an easy argument to make that he belongs with us.”

“But Denise, think about it for two seconds: you just undermined your whole position. You told us White’s going to defect and the GOP won’t have anyone to fill the slot. So if Bill can sew up the Democratic nomination, he wins in a walk.”

“That’s a pretty big if, Hill.” She takes out a file and passes it across the table. “Take a look at that when you get a chance, and show your husband. We’re all about data these days; I hear he’s a fan of data, too. We’ve even got some polling in there. But let me just summarize it for you: Bill’s trying to stake out the center. But Tucker’s already out-flanked him to the left and Hendren will lock down whatever’s left of the right. Bill splits the center with Purcell and Tucker wins with a comfortable plurality. Like I said, this isn’t your daddy’s Democratic Party down here. Populism’s what plays now.”

Hillary takes a peak in the folder, but only so her lowered hat brim will hide her reaction. Denise quickly moves on.

“But there’s another way. You two help align the Arkansas GOP with the national party. You bring in your organizers, your voting base, your loyalists, and you craft a truly moderate party for a strongly moderate state. And then you know what happens next? We take what you’ve done- the Arkansas model; the Clinton model- and we replicate it for the rest of the South.”

It doesn’t take a mind-reader to tell she’s intrigued. But she also clearly understands the implications. The GOP is functionally kaput in Arkansas without its conservative base. Unless it can reorient around the center, Arkansas will remain a two-party state with the Democrats and the ACP carrying all before them. And between old Yellow Dogs who won’t ever bend, African Americans, centrists, and populists, a permanent (at least for the foreseeable future) Democratic majority is the likely outcome.

The only kicker is, it was looking more and more like the Arkansas Democratic Party wanted to achieve this permanent majority without the help of the Clintons. Tucker was more popular with the party bosses than Bill these days. They felt they needed to shore up their support with the rural populists, and since Bill was locked into defending his previous, Anderson-like term as governor, he just didn’t have the messaging they wanted.

When faced with a choice between an easy Democratic win without them, or a chaotic free-for-all with them, what-oh-what would the Clinton’s ever decide?

“Denise...how’d you like to come to the house for dinner tomorrow night?”
 
So I wanted to write something about how the RNC was actively moving its candidate base towards what would have been DLC territory IOTL. But I was resistant to making it be about the Clintons. That would be just too obvious. No subtlety whatsoever.

BUT! Then I saw this picture of Hillary at the time looking like Carmen Sandiego, and I just reeeeeeeeaaally had to get her in at least a somewhat clandestine situation.

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This is so very possible, I remember a political writer saying that Clinton was for everything the Republicans said they believed in, a moderate who balanced the budget, did welfare reform and engaged heavily in free trade with Canada and Mexico, the reason they hated him was because he a D next to his name instead of an R. This continues to be a thoroughly fascinating TL.
 
This is so very possible, I remember a political writer saying that Clinton was for everything the Republicans said they believed in, a moderate who balanced the budget, did welfare reform and engaged heavily in free trade with Canada and Mexico, the reason they hated him was because he a D next to his name instead of an R. This continues to be a thoroughly fascinating TL.

Thank you! I am honored to fascinate!

It's maybe worth pointing out that it's impossible to strip the DLC elements entirely from the Democratic Party at this point. The process began in the early 1970s and the policy infrastructure's in place by now. Most notably, Al From's a very important name on the Hill right now, doing yeoman's work keeping the non-majority Congress functioning on a bipartisan basis. His influence grows daily and of course a guy like that's gonna have a posse.

But this realignment is currently stealing the DLC's chance for the kind of dominance it enjoyed IOTL.
 
Story Post XXVII: 1982 Midterms
#27

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Election night 1982, 11:26 p.m. ET

Tom Brokaw is just wrapping up.

“Welcome back to NBC news coverage of Decision ‘82. If you’re just joining us, the word of the night appears to be 'Indecision,' or at least a lot of close calls. Polls are now closed across the lower ‘48 states and in Hawaii- if you’re watching us from Alaska you still have just over half an hour left to get out to your polling place to vote; remember, every vote counts.

“But for the rest of us here, as we get ready to sign off for the night, it’s really just a waiting game.

“There are some things we can be reasonably certain about. For one, no party will hold a majority in the Senate, and unless something very unlikely happens, no party will hold a majority in the House. We are going to have a continuation of the non-majority government that we’ve had for the past two years. A lot of Republicans and Democrats were hoping that the Conservative Party rebellion would prove to be nothing more than a fluke, but it appears that, while they may return with slightly reduced numbers, the Conservatives are here to stay.

“And I think we all have to start asking ourselves: what does this mean for American democracy? Roger Mudd, can our system withstand the kind of results we’re seeing tonight?”

“Well Tom, we’ve seen the two largest parties come together to govern effectively over the last two years, perhaps tied together by their mutual dislike for what they saw as defectors. But now the Conservative Party has run under its own banner and won, so I think first of all they’re legitimized, I think the Republicans and Democrats will have to start treating them like a real party and won’t be able to ignore them any more.

“Second, we could have an interesting leadership contest this year in the both chambers of congress. Last time around leadership was decided by an ad-hoc gentleman’s agreement, you might say. It was based on the election results before the Conservatives officially left. This time even that sliver of legitimacy is gone, and we really can’t say what will happen.”

“And that brings us to point three: I think the reality is going to set in here...we may have to take a serious look at reforming the procedures for the running of Congress. This isn’t necessarily a constitutional issue; the constitution gives Congress a lot of leeway on how it conducts business. But we’ve got about 200 years of tradition that we’re staring down here, and the question is, does anyone have the political wherewithal to enact major reforms?”

“What sort of reforms do you think they should be looking at?”

“Well I don’t want to make any qualitative judgments, especially not with midnight looming on an election night. But you know there are plenty of democracies around the world that have learned to work with coalitions. There are plenty that set different standards for how power is divided, how bills are introduced, how budgets are passed. There are lots of ways for a democracy to be run, and I think we’re going to see the parties take a good look at these alternatives.”

“Let’s take a final look at the results for tonight:

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
Conservatives 60
Democrats 179
Republicans 151

SENATE
Conservatives 13
Democrats 42
Republicans 40

“Connie, you want to break these numbers down for us?”

“Well, there you have it, Tom. 45 races still too close to call in the House. Five too close to call in the Senate. Also six governors’ races too close to call. At least four incumbents have lost in the Senate with four more still in danger. We’ve so far had 87 incumbents lose in the House tonight, we think that's an all-time record.

“Since the mid-1960s the number of competitive districts in the House of Representatives has been decreasing, from just about 90 districts in 1964 to 56 in 1980. Well, this year that trend has more than reversed, it has blown up. With the emergence of a three-party dynamic, it looks like at least 250 districts- possibly as high as 290 districts- are going to be decided by 10% or less; that’s what is considered a competitive margin.

Additionally, the number of winning candidates receiving an outright majority of the vote in their particular contest has dropped precipitously. We won’t have exact figures for a few days, but by our estimates it seems likely that only about 40%-50% of victors will take office with majority support.

“We’re also looking at an unprecedented turnout for a midterm. All signs point to something north of 53% of registered voters casting their ballot. The closest we've come to that for a midterm was 1966 when the turnout was 48.7%. And indeed there’s an outside chance, if totals from the West Coast are particularly high, that we might even catch the presidential election of 1976, which had a turnout of 54%.

“What we can say about these results, at least the ones that have come in, is that this national realignment is probably going to up-end the traditional political landscape. The narrative that’s been emerging over the last few months, and which was largely confirmed tonight, is that the ACP are consolidating their gains in conservative-leaning parts of the country. The GOP are losing a lot of their right-wing voters, but are replacing them with moderates who were formerly swing-Democrats. And the Democrats are losing a lot of their right wing, a good chunk of their moderates, and are shifting to the left.”

“And you’d think that that would leave the Democrats out in the cold, but here they are tonight, likely to gain seats in both chambers.”

“That’s right, Tom, and you can thank the three-party dynamic for that as well. While there are probably not enough out-and-out liberals or conservatives to run the country with a majority, the bar is now well below a majority. You need perhaps 35-40% to win in a lot of these districts.”

“Thank you, Connie. And thanks to Roger Mudd, as well as our team out in the field and here in the studio.

“And so we won’t be able to deliver final results tonight, in fact it may be several days before the exact tally of seats is known. I thank you for joining us on this strange journey; we’re going to cut to your local news next. Strange times ahead. I’m Tom Brokaw, and for all of us at NBC Election News here in New York, goodnight.”

----

7th and Euclid

“EXTRY! EXTRY! Final election results are in! In the House we have:
162 Republicans
199 Democrats
74 Conservatives

And in the Senate it’s:
40 Republicans
46 Democrats
14 Conser-”

“Alright that’s IT!”

A big guy is stomping over from the direction of the park.

“I’ve had it! I’ve had enough!”

Al’s a little nonplussed.

“Uhhh...paper?”

“I come to the park every morning to eat my muffin in some goddamn peace, and EVERY MORNING, there you are, flapping your meat off like a goddamn cartoon character. It’s not cute. You’re a joke and you need to just shut-”

Hashim comes out from behind his stall.

“heyheyeheyHEYHEY! HEY! NO! You do NOT get to talk to him like that! You need to leave.”

“Butt out of it, buddy, this isn’t about you.”

“No, this is about YOU getting out of here before we get really mad. You want a scene, we’ll give you a scene. My brother-in-law’s a cop, I will bring in the law, my friend.”

The two try to stare each other down. Al is uncharacteristically speechless. After a second the man leaves in a huff. Al moves to stand next to Hashim as they watch this hombre walk away.

“You don’t have a brother-in-law.”

Hashim gives him an annoyed stare, then reaches down to the rack for a magazine.

“I’m taking this Popular Mechanics.”
 
America has had political parties for so long, it's easy to forget the Constitution didn't plan for them. Which is part of the beauty of it, it was flexible through numerous changes like that. My guess is things will evolve naturally once people realize these parties are just labels and more people start "crossing the aisle" to vote for or against certain measures. The concept of an "aisle" might become more obsolete, in fact, by 2019 TTL.
 
America has had political parties for so long, it's easy to forget the Constitution didn't plan for them. Which is part of the beauty of it, it was flexible through numerous changes like that. My guess is things will evolve naturally once people realize these parties are just labels and more people start "crossing the aisle" to vote for or against certain measures. The concept of an "aisle" might become more obsolete, in fact, by 2019 TTL.

It's a possibility! We saw that earlier in the TL as a potential movement at the state level with people going to take a gander at Nebraska.
 
The butterfly effect from this one stolen sale will flap its way around the globe before too long. Oh yes, I have plans for Popular Mechanics*...






*I, in fact, have no plans for Popular Mechanics.
Love this answer. The essence of being a TL writer is in it (footnote very much included.)
 
Love this answer. The essence of being a TL writer is in it (footnote very much included.)

I think I'm starting to figure it out. Always keep the people guessing, and be prepared at the drop of a hat to ditch two years of research for over-the-weekend rewrites!

Speaking of, I know I owe you all an update, and it's 96.9% ready. I can guarantee for certain I'll still get two out this week, but the publishing schedule should be thought of as really more of a guideline atm.
 
Story Post XXVIII: UK Elections 1982
#28

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UK General Election, 25 November, 1982

Turnout 78.2% (up 2.2%)


SDP-ONP-Liberal Alliance 334 seats (55.1% of the popular vote)

Conservative Party 167 seats (20% of the popular vote)

Labour Party 128 seats (20.3% of the popular vote)

Other Parties 21 seats (4.6% of the popular vote)

----

The Oval Office

“Morning, Bill.”

“Morning, Mr. President.”

“Did they tell you I want five minutes on top to talk about the UK?”

“Yeah. Damned thing. And an alliance of three parties. Who do you even wire to congratulate?”

“It’ll be David Steel. Jenkins was the agreed-upon figure before One Nation joined their little coalition, but Steel triangulates better between the three factions.”

“Ah. Well, I’ve glanced at the briefing from State. No real red flags, here. Mostly good news for us, I gather. Pro-NATO. Pro-European Community, and I know you want to push integration.”

“Yes. Though I doubt it’ll matter much.”

“Sir?”

“We might be calling them ‘Alliance’ now, but remember these are three distinct entities. This will be a short government.”

“You’re thinking infighting? Crash and burn?”

“Maybe. If they’re clever, they’ll go for a controlled landing. Focus on some flavor of election reform that makes all factions viable in the next election. Then just carry on long enough to develop a reputation with the voters. There are a few other things they can agree on- incidentally, I hear their manifesto has some interesting ideas on worker participation in the boardroom, I’ve requested a copy.”

“Good lord. Fine, sir, just for your own edification this time, though?”

“Bill, I’ll take a good idea from any place I can find it. And right now Britain’s dealing with the same problems we’ll be dealing with in a few years if the Conservatives hang on here. This could be the roadmap for how a majoritarian government transitions to something more representative.”

“The party doesn’t want the system to be more representative. The Democrats don’t want it, either. Their coalition would split into twenty pieces if we instituted STV. We’d probably split as well. And we’d certainly never have freedom of action again.”

“I’m exploring all possibilities, Bill. We’re going to need an answer before too long, mark my words. And it just might be that we’re in the driver’s seat when the decision needs to be made. Maybe you should read it, too.”

“...Yes, sir.”

“Are you pouting.”

“No. Just some residual distaste for reading anything called a ‘manifesto.’”

“Maybe I should write a manifesto.”

“Good lord.”

“The Anderson Manifesto!”

“I’ll call Random House.”
 
I'm kind of with Bill on this one. Part of me has never trusted anything called a manifesto. A disconcertingly large number of them seem to be self-published by people who give the police good reason to raid their houses and their neighbours to appear on the news expressing shock and horror that they could ever do such a thing, they seemed like such a quiet person.

Also, cheerio Thatcher. I grew up in the North of England in the eighties, you won't be missed there.
 
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I'm kind of with Bill on this one. Part of me has never trusted anything called a manifesto. A disconcertingly large number of them seem to be self-published by people who give the police good reason to raid their houses and their neighbours to appear on the news expressing shock and horror that they could ever do such a thing, they seemed like such a quiet person.

Also, cheerio Thatcher. I grew up in the North of England in the eighties, you won't be missed there.

I quite unwittingly stripped her of a lot of her OTL political capital, but I can’t say it wasn’t a nice surprise to find her early exit felt plausible. I wish I had more to say about Britain, but I’m afraid this is (I think) the last we’ll hear from her for a while. In case there’s any doubt, Anderson’s analysis of future events is right on the money. And now I think about it I should probably at least try to include an announcement of the next government (after this short-term one) in an Al and Hashim post, so I guess we’ll hear a little more from the UK before too long.
 
Story Post XXIX: Butterflies in Lebanon
#29

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July, 1982

The Israeli diplomatic delegation enters the room, the American delegation already there. Both sides have several aids, but as usual in this sort of meeting they are mere ornamentation and will not be participating. The chief of the Israelis puts his hands up in mock defensiveness, and before the American can even make the accusation he says:

“I’m calm. I’m calm. We’re reasonable people, we can have a reasonable discussion.”

“You’re thinking of breaking the treaty.”

“Never.”

“I’ve seen the photos, Zemel. Your soldiers are staying put.”

“Yes.”

“You have a timetable to keep. It's already been extended for you once. The new schedule says this base is supposed to be dismantled by the end of the month. How are you going to manage it if they don’t get started?”

“I don’t suppose they will manage it.”

“So you’re breaking the treaty.”

“Never.”

“What semantic game are you hinting at, Zemel?”

“Semantics is the study of meaning, and meaning is very important. We aren’t the ones breaking the treaty, and that’s all there is to it.”

“You’re accusing the Egyptians of breaking the treaty?”

Zemel takes out a folder. Documents detailing Egyptian troop movements are placed on the table.

“The Egyptians were limited by the treaty to three battalions in this area. Does this look like three battalions to you?”

Brandon points to one column of figures.

“These are Ghazala’s men and you know it.”

“Do I know it? Or is this cover for an escalation?”

“They’ve withdrawn already. They’ve been defeated.”

“A breach is a breach. You can’t ignore that it happened. What’s to stop it from happening again?”

“The UN. The US Navy. Sadat.”

“Sadat might lose.”

“Sadat will not lose.”

“What are you doing to ensure that?”

“Everything we can. Sadat needs to look strong in this conflict so our support is limited in the main battle. But the carrier group is deployed now. We’re taking action in the UN. The Sinai will be covered. Ghazala will not cross the canal again, I promise you.”

“That’s comforting. You’ll forgive us if we continue to take precautions.”

“Take all the precautions you want. As long as you continue to adhere to the terms of the treaty.”

Diplomacy was strange sometimes. The purpose of a face to face meeting like this was to state, for the record, what everyone in the room (and their respective superiors) already knew. But the forms were important. Formality was like gold or diamonds; everyone had to agree it was valuable for it to have value.

“The base will be dismantled on schedule.”

“And those troops you’re redeploying from the Lebanon border?”

“Are our concern. But, rest assured they will be sent to the Southern District. No further.”

Brandon nods.

“The US will impress upon Sadat that we do not see this movement as an escalation, and that he shouldn’t, either.”

“Our thanks.”

Everyone stands. The two primaries shake hands.

“My love to your family.”

“And mine to yours.”

----

2007

A visiting lecturer at Miami University of Ohio (go RedHawks) is discussing the political history of the Palestinian diaspora.

"Beginning with the ceasefire in 1981, Arafat’s strategy in southern Lebanon was to refrain from violence directed at the Israelis. The idea was that Israel would not be able to help itself; that it would start a confrontation, unprovoked, which would unite the Palestinians under the leadership of the PLO and also generate sufficient sympathy in the Arab world to once again form a coalition to push back against Israel militarily.

"Indeed, there is ample evidence that the Israeli military was anxious for an excuse to invade Lebanon. Invasion plans were drawn up and many high-level meetings took place on the subject within the Israeli government.

"But the destabilization of Egypt changed the strategic situation in the region dramatically. Israel’s attention was drawn south and west, away from Lebanon. Now their big fear was finding the bulk of their military engaged to the north when Ghazala’s rebels came streaming across the Sinai.

"Several large formations were redeployed to counter a possible attack from Egypt. Further, the remaining forces in the north were warned at their peril not to provoke a war in southern Lebanon. The government began extricating itself from promises of support made to the Phalangists, and while still supporting the Christian minority in the far south of the country, it threatened the immediate withdrawal of aid if the group should even consider provoking the Palestinians.

"Arafat was left waiting for an attack that would never come. As the weeks and months began to pile up, so did dissent. Arafat’s lack of action was cast as weakness, indecision, even cowardice by an ever-growing list of opponents within the Palestinian community of Lebanon.

"The coalition of the PLO did not collapse overnight. Local commanders began to slowly withdraw, some beginning as early as the start of the ceasefire. By summer of 1982, the organization was dangerously riven with factions.

"By September of 1982, attempts by Arafat to broker peace between the factions broke down. Internecine violence erupted throughout Palestinian-controlled territory as the PLO and other Palestinian factions began to tear each other apart. Isolated firefights turned quickly into running battles that lasted weeks. The number of active factions changed almost daily in the first few months of the conflict.

"But in the end it didn’t take all that long before the Syrians gained effective control of the Palestinian forces. Better supplied and more organized than their competitors, two pro-Assad groups soon dominated: the more secular Palestine Liberation Army, and the more religious As Sa’iqa. As winter arrived, almost the entire former PLO leadership cadre had been tracked down and killed, or had pledged loyalty to Assad.

"The Syrians gained another lever of power when their deepening ties with the Iranians caused that country to cease backing separate players among Lebanon’s Shia community. The pro-Syrian Amal Movement served to further isolate the anti-Syrian Christian factions that were at the time ascendant in central Lebanon.

"Significant internal movements caused by this fighting led to conflict with the Christians remaining in the Beqaa Valley. This precipitated a minor exodus, as many Christians outside and on the margins of the Mount Lebanon and North Governorates began to flee to safer territory, demographically-speaking. Tens of thousands petitioned for travel papers seeking to leave Lebanon altogether, something the dominant Phalangists tried desperately to stop. Hundreds of reprisal killings, mostly so-called 'honor killings' of heads of households, were carried out by state militias in an effort to keep families from fleeing and further depleting the faltering Christian population.

"The crackdown was only partially successful, and more than 30,000 Christians left Lebanon by early 1983, mostly for France and the United States. This only increased the panic among the Phalangists, and on March 30th, 1983, they overthrew the civilian government for good. A Christian Canton was declared (with only vaguely stated borders), separate and independent from the rest of the country. The Phalangists then immediately sought to isolate and ethnically cleanse the Muslim population in their territory, particularly in Beirut.

"This action was immediately condemned by the entire international community, including the Soviets and Americans. Non-Phalangist Christian factions began to distance themselves from the movement. Suleiman Frangieh and his Marada Movement became the nexus of Christian opposition to the Phalangists. Through pressure from the Soviets, the Syrians refrained from outright invasion, though Syrian-backed militias were the main opposition to the Phalangists outside of Beirut.

"The UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) was ordered to impose a ceasefire in Beirut, and it was clear it would have to be done by force. The UN troops, buttressed by three American divisions from the recently created Rapid Deployment Force, quickly set a cordon around the city and began to occupy its vitals. Their arrival caused the Phalangists to mostly retreat from Muslim neighborhoods, but in the mere three weeks before the UN could fully control the city, a great deal of damage was already done.

"This Christian Intifada would be bloody but brief, lasting only about five weeks total. In that time, at least 8,000 Muslim civilians were killed (mostly in Beirut) and another 6,000 Christian and Muslim militia died in the fighting.

"The Phalangists quickly began to lose coherent control over even the Maronite community as the people began to see the militias as attempting to lock them into a national suicide pact. A schism emerged within the party, which saw President Bachir Gemayel deposed and arrested. In 1988 The Hague sentenced him to 80 years in prison for ordering the wholesale deaths of Muslims in Beirut.

"The aftermath for Lebanon was chaotic. Another 60,000 Christians sought to leave the country by the end of 1983, with the majority being taken in by the US after President Anderson made a direct appeal to Congress to allow emergency provisions for their admittance. Another 60,000 Palestinians took advantage of the disorder to join them, with about half going to the US and the rest to Europe. Even more Palestinians moved into abandoned Christian lands outside of the Mount Lebanon core territory, effectively setting down roots in the country.

"While the international community was adamant against the wholesale annexation of Lebanon by Syria, it had to be admitted that Assad’s victory was nearly complete. Almost all of the political power in Lebanon was in his hands, with even the remaining Christian parties mostly under his thumb.

"Still, significant Soviet pressure kept them from announcing annexation. Later international accords called for a commission to study a referendum, but the results wouldn’t be published for years to come.

"In the meantime, Syria began to deepen its de facto control of the country. Most political parties now openly supported the idea of “Greater Syria.” Almost no one in Lebanon vocally opposed the idea. Perhaps most importantly, the PLA and As-Saiqa took the line that Palestine should be a free and Muslim part of Greater Syria. Significantly, the territory of the Kingdom of Jordan was also included in these maximalist proclamations.

"This development would cause a realignment that would dramatically impact the Middle East in the years to come."
 
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