Playing with Mirrors

[Expat]

8:12 PM

Over in the corner where the numbers boys are watching, the results are coming in…

“Wow, that was quick.”
“What? Alabama?”
“Alabama AND Mississippi.”
“Are we really doing this? He’s got like 36% of the vote right now in Alabama. And Mississippi-”
“Look, CBS is calling it right now.”
“It’s 5% of precincts reporting.”
“There goes ABC!”
“Okay, call it.”​

...And I’m just being told that we have two more states to call. A bit of a surprise here. We are calling both Alabama and Mississippi for Senator Buckley. We thought it might be an interesting night for him, but I don’t think anyone expected him to make it onto the board quite so soon. But we’re being told that the early projections are extremely strong for the Senator.

Anderson: 3
Buckley: 16
Lamm: 18

That’s something of a shocking result, and the fact that they’re able to call it so early in the night is really telling that the old dynamics are just out the window once and for all. We had signs in ‘82, but a presidential election is in many ways a completely different animal…

 

[Expat]

8:22

The flurry of early calls after the 8 o’clock hour are starting to ebb here, but we do have two more projections to make at this time. It looks like Indiana has gone for the president, Indiana a bedrock for the Republican Party these many years though a target of the Conservative campaign this time around, but it looks like they’ve come up short. In consolation, we’re projecting South Carolina for the Conservative; Senator Buckley takes South Carolina and looks like he’s having a very good night across the Deep South…

Anderson: 15
Buckley: 24
Lamm: 18

 

[Expat]

8:30

“Are you sure about this one?”
“We were late on Alabama, we don’t want to make that a trend tonight.”
“Here we go, then.”​

Ladies and gentlemen we have a very important result to announce at this time: Pennsylvania is being projected for the Democrat, Richard Lamm. Dick Lamm wins the hotly-contested battleground of Pennsylvania. This is a huge result for the Governor from Colorado. His strategy has been one of targeting the industrial Midwest and the Southwest, states where immigration remains a more central issue than the nation at-large, and it seems to be paying off with the first big battleground state of the night going to Dick Lamm, giving him a significant early edge in the electoral total.

Anderson: 15
Buckley: 24
Lamm: 43

 

[Expat]

8:44

“Okay I think we can call these. No, let’s give it another minute on New Hampshire, I want to see a little more from them.”
“Did you see this?”
“What.”
“Right here.”
“Look, tell me what it is, I’ve got eight million things…”
“This swing. In Pennsylvania. Lamm’s lead’s cut in half over the last few minutes.”
“Okay, that’s enough form New Hampshire, let’s call these. What are you talking about Pennsylvania, we already called Pennsylvania.”
“I’m just. There’s a swing, see for yourself.”​

A few more projections at this time and some good news from New England for the president. We’re calling New Hampshire and Maine for John B. Anderson. The staunch redoubt of Republicanism up in New England stays strong for them in 1984. But we’re also ready to call the state of Georgia with its 12 electoral votes for James Buckley, and his astonishing run across the South continues, this northern senator representing Connecticut seems to be the South’s favorite son tonight.

Anderson: 23
Buckley: 46
Lamm: 43

 

[Expat]

8:50

“Shit.”
“Shit is right.”
“Shit. I’m calling the booth...Yeah, Steve. We have a problem”​

Ladies and gentlemen, I’m afraid...okay, I’m being told that we are removing Pennsylvania from the board, we’re putting it back into play. Our deepest apologies at this time. We thought we had the call, but the key precincts that we use to predict the outcome are not mapping well to tonight’s results. We were showing Governor Lamm with what looked like an insurmountable lead at 8:30, and here, just twenty minutes later, well...it was surmounted.

The other networks called it, too, did they not?

They did call it, this was a joint mistake, we apologize. I think it just goes to show you how unpredictable modern politics has become as a result of the addition of a viable third party into the race. It looks like our modeling took a hit there, and we really are sorry for the confusion. We’re going to continue and maybe keep a closer eye on things from now on.

Anderson: 23
Buckley: 46
Lamm: 18

 

[Expat]

9:03

“I think I’m spooked. I don’t want to call it.”
“We can’t let one mistake keep us from doing our jobs, we have to call it. These all look good.”
“Do they? How do we know?”
“We use our marks, we use our research, we use our heads and we make a decision, we’re getting paid to make a decision.”
“Yeah, but for how much longer?”​

It’s now just after 9:00 here on the East Coast and we at NBC News can project- confidently- that the state of Rhode Island has gone for Governor Lamm. It’s been trending more Democratic for years, the incoming results show Governor Lamm with a very strong plurality, we’re confident in our call. And now...do we have it? We do- yes, we are also projecting two states for Senator Buckley, in Louisiana and Oklahoma. Oklahoma, his first state outside of the South tonight.

Anderson: 23
Buckley: 54
Lamm: 22

This is really close to an optimal performance for Mr. Buckley, who I don’t think anybody expected to be leading the electoral college at 9 PM, and one has to wonder if his campaign’s strategy of, “hanging the election,” so to speak, might come to pass.

It’s certainly not out of the question, though presently there are enough outstanding states that any of the three candidates might have a viable path to victory. That’s a question that hasn’t really come up recently; based on what we’ve seen tonight, is it possible for James Buckley to win the presidency?

I think only mathematically, Tom. Even at his best he’s not playing a 50-state strategy. He’s had to abandon too many of the big-target states like New York, Illinois, California. That’s 107 electoral votes right there. Even with a sympathy bump over his shooting he’s not expected to do well outside of the South, the High Plains, and the Mountain West, and there just aren’t enough votes there.

But he could still prove a very disruptive force tonight.

Very disruptive, yes.

And we’ll be right back after these messages.

 

[Expat]

9:17

...And if you’re just joining us, here’s what things look like. We just called Massachusetts for Dick Lamm a moment ago, and now we’re ready to add Minnesota to his column. A not unexpected result in either case, though the president did have hopes of making inroads in Massachusetts. It was not to be, Massachusetts goes to Mr. Lamm.

Anderson: 23
Buckley: 54
Lamm: 45

 

[Expat]

9:20

“Alright, you have a problem with this one?”
“...It looks right to me.”
“Because this is another big one.”
“Should we hold it back?”
“...Could it hurt to show some discretion? Maybe we should.”
“Shit, there goes ABC again! Send it.”​

Here at 9:20 PM we are ready to project Ohio for Dick Lamm. Things are looking pretty good for the Governor tonight, this is another big win for him. Still a long way to go, but this is a crucial step if he's going to make it to the White House.

Anderson: 23
Buckley: 54
Lamm: 68

 

[Expat]

9:35

“FUCK.”
“Are you kidding me?”
“FUCK.”​

And I’m afraid we have to make another correction. Ladies and gentlemen, this is unprecedented. We’re going to have to put Ohio back in the undecided column. I just want to take a minute to defend our team here tonight, we’re finding we have to throw out basically everything we know about calling an American election. It’s clear the old rules do not apply, this is a whole new ball game. We’re going to slow things down again and try to be as certain as possible of our results before we announce them. This may mean, if you’re a channel-flipper, that you’ll start to see different results being announced by different networks. Please note- and I will remind you throughout the night- that we have elected to be extra cautious in our projections from this point on tonight in an effort to avoid further confusion. We apologize once again. More coverage of Election Night ‘84 after this.

Anderson: 23
Buckley: 54
Lamm: 45

 

[Expat]

9:40

“Call Delaware.”
“ABC’s also calling North Ca-”
“JUST CALL DELAWARE.”​

...And we’re ready to call the state of Delaware for President Anderson at this time. This is a good example of what I was talking about: those flipping channels may be hearing about some other calls the other networks are making right now, we have decided NOT to make those calls, the data is not strong enough in our eyes to call anything but Delaware for the time being.

Anderson: 26
Buckley: 54
Lamm: 45

 

[Expat]

9:44

And as we start to venture to the west, let’s add Wyoming and its three electoral votes to the board for Senator Buckley. The senator from Connecticut takes the lead again.

Anderson: 26
Buckley: 57
Lamm: 45

 

[Expat]

9:49

“This looks pretty solid to me.”
“I don’t fucking know anymore. I’m completely spooked.”
“You’re the boss, yes or no?”
“I need five minutes. I need a Pepto and a smoke.”
“Fuck it, I’m sending it.”​

One more projection at this time-

“Wait, pull that back! PULL IT BACK!”
​

We are ready to project that Arizona for Ja- no, okay. Well by the standards of tonight I think we’ll just call that a close shave and count ourselves lucky, we are not prepared to make additional calls at this time.

 

[Wolfram]

Would I be correct in assuming that that swathe of undecided states through the Great Lakes area (e.g. Illinois, Michigan, New York) are mostly contested between Lamm and Anderson, with Buckley as more of a spoiler than a viable prospect?

 

[Expat]

10:08

It’s after 10 PM here in New York and we’ve been holding back several results just to verify our numbers in the wake of some earlier missteps. But we’re now ready to make a number of important projections. The state of New Jersey will go to President Anderson, as will the state of Maryland. In good news for Governor Lamm, he has taken North Carolina, Tennessee, and very crucially Michigan. That’s a big industrial state win for Lamm, and he’s made a definite Democratic mark on the South, proving that the reports of the party's death there are premature, and stopping a total rout in the region by Mr. Buckley.

This is a significant haul for the governor from Colorado and could point to a possible path to victory tonight. If his attempted fusion of rural populism and labor activism have really taken hold with the electorate, that gives him a broad swath of states to play with.

Yes, as the evening goes by we'll be keeping a close eye on those two states we've pulled back- Pennsylvania and Ohio. There's still a good chance they'll break for Lamm, but of course we have a duty to be sure of our projections. And moving west we'll be looking at Missouri and Iowa, and I'm also curious to see how he plays in the Southwest. That could be an interesting dynamic.

I recall in the past few days we had some interesting interviews coming out of Arizona and rural southern California, where Lamm was doing well with a motley crew of agricultural laborers and also what we perhaps might call a more..."nativist" set of voters.

That's right, Tom, there's some circumstantial evidence that confusion over Lamm's immigration policy may have actually helped him with so-called low-information voters, who read into it what they want to see. But time will tell on that one.

Anderson: 52
Buckley: 57
Lamm: 89

This is also good news for the president, Tom, in Maryland and New Jersey. He appears to be doing very well with those new homeowners in the big metro areas, and based on exit polling his vote total with minorities is at least matching, if not exceeding expectations.

 

[Expat]

Would I be correct in assuming that that swathe of undecided states through the Great Lakes area (e.g. Illinois, Michigan, New York) are mostly contested between Lamm and Anderson, with Buckley as more of a spoiler than a viable prospect?

Mostly true. Buckley's throwing up some unexpected numbers everywhere, but we're talking low-20s in Michigan and probably less than that in the other big industrials. I'll try to get a full breakdown for you at some point, but no promises!

 

[Expat]

10:18

“Do we dare?”
“The writing’s on the wall at this point, this is as close to a mathematical certainty as we’re gonna get. And add South Dakota while you’re at it.”​

Very big news at the moment for the president: we are moving the state of New York and its 36 big electoral votes into his column. New York, the Empire State, goes to President Anderson. In equally important news, at least if you live in South Dakota, we’re also calling South Dakota for the president.

Anderson: 91
Buckley: 57
Lamm: 89

In some ways South Dakota is the more intriguing result, here. New York is a big prize, but we all know how he won. He and the other candidates went out and pounded the pavement and held rallies and spent money and fought a hard campaign, and Anderson pulled it off. But in a sparsely populated state like South Dakota it’s all about messaging. And I think Anderson’s win is intriguing. We know they like his support for farmers, but we’ve found that his style also plays very well in the Midwest. That combination of common sense and Christian charity seems to be very popular there, and this is one of the only regions in the country where the president is noticeably more popular than the Republican Party at-large.

Not to interrupt you, Roger, but we have a few more states to call at this time, one for each candidate, in fact. The state of Colorado has gone for Governor Lamm, and he can breath a sigh of relief now, knowing that he’s won his home state- the only one of our three candidates to do that so far tonight, both Illinois and strangely Connecticut still too close to call. But Anderson can also breath a sigh of relief in that it looks like he’s going to win Utah relatively easily. There was some concern given how traditionally conservative the Mormon population is in Utah. But perhaps more than ideology, the state has long been associated with the Republican Party, and it looks like those bonds of loyalty remained intact tonight. Finally, the state of Montana goes to Senator Buckley, and along with Wyoming, which we called earlier, and some might say also Oklahoma, the Conservative Party puts its mark on the West. The current tally stands at 96 electoral votes for President Anderson, 97 for Governor Lamm, and 61 for Senator Buckley.

Anderson: 96
Buckley: 61
Lamm: 97

 

[Expat]

10:34

Back with more surprising news on this unprecedented election night, we’re projecting that Senator James Buckley of Connecticut has carried that state, Connecticut goes for James L. Buckley.

Anderson: 96
Buckley: 69
Lamm: 97

“I’m not telling them, you tell them.”
“I’m not telling them. You’re the boss.”
“You want to be the boss?”
“Not tonight, I sure as shit don’t.”​

It’s been a close-fought battle, but with 99% of precincts reporting we’re confident in our call of Connecticut. It may seem strange to be surprised that a candidate has won a state that he represents in Congress, but Mr. Buckley’s circumstances are a little odd in that...excuse me, ladies and gentlemen, we’re going to pull our call of Montana back. Montana goes back to too close to call. Mr. Buckley is still in the lead but our team doesn’t like the trends. Once again if you are flipping channels, we just want to explain that our results may be different from those on other networks as we are...okay apologies again everyone, but we have another big result to announce.

We previously called Ohio for Governor Lamm. The race then proved too close to call and we pulled it back. Now, with some vindication, we can confidently say that Governor Lamm has indeed won the state of Ohio, keeping him very much front and center in this race for the presidency.

Anderson: 96
Buckley: 65
Lamm: 120

 

[Expat]

11:01

Once again we’re just past the hour here and there are a few results we’ve been holding back. In addition, polls are now closed along the West Coast, and while we can’t make any projections for those vote-rich states, we are able to call Hawaii for Governor Lamm. No very big surprise there, though there was some concern in the state regarding his immigration policy. We’re also ready to call Wisconsin for the Democrat.

And very good news for the president at this time, he wins his home state of Illinois with its very significant haul of 24 electoral votes. That means all three candidates have won the state they most recently called home tonight, something that doesn’t always happen. In addition, we’re projecting Iowa, another swing state, Iowa, goes to President Anderson. And let’s take a look at all the states that are too close to call or too early to call at this time...

Anderson: 128
Buckley: 65
Lamm: 135

Polls are closed now everywhere except Alaska, if you live in Alaska you still have time to get to the polls. Everything else in gray the polls have closed. Several of them are only just closing now as they've been held open late by judicial rulings. All of them are still counting, and once again voter participation is breaking all modern records. We're all excited to get that bottom line figure, but it's probably going to be days if not weeks before we know what percentage of the country has pulled the lever this year.

 

[Expat]

11:12

And folks this is why we want to check everything twice and make sure we’ve got as much data as we need. Earlier in the evening we briefly called Pennsylvania for Governor Lamm. Now it looks as if it’s actually swung towards the president, and we are ready to call it for President Anderson at this time. It looks like the Conservative Party did significantly better than expected in rural Pennsylvania, siphoning votes that were previously Democratic, while the Republicans have over-performed among minorities and suburbanites. And so in the end, Anderson takes Pennsylvania.

Anderson: 153
Buckley: 65
Lamm: 135

One thing that does, Tom, is that it makes it now mathematically impossible for James Buckley to win the presidency. He could run the table from this moment on and there simply aren’t enough electoral votes left to reach 270. The other two candidates are still very much in it, with the possibility of the whole thing being thrown to the House of Representatives still very much on the table.

 

[Expat]

11:16

Polls have been closed for over four hours in the state of Virginia. And it’s a testament to how close the result is there that we’re only now just able to call it. With all precincts reporting in, President Anderson wins by a veritable fly’s breadth.

Anderson: 165
Buckley: 65
Lamm: 135

This was really a state that saw a split voting population, a real three-way race, no spoilers involved. It looks like Anderson is going to pull this off with little better than 34% of the vote.

A lot of close races tonight, Roger, continuing the trend we saw in 1982. The number of competitive House seats is going to be well into the hundreds. We’ve got a number of senate races that are still too close to call. It’s going to be a long night.

I have a feeling all election nights will be long from now on. We're just going to have to get used to this.

“So how long are we broadcasting for, then?”
“The duration.”
“Nooooooooooooooooo-”
“At least until midnight”
“-ooooooooooooooooo-”
“Probably longer if the story stays juicy”
“-oooooooooooooofine.”​