I'd imagine it's gonna be more like OTL's Xbox than Saturn in terms of success, but overall, what you're saying is pretty much what I'm thinking.
Another thing I was thinking about: the
Gigadisc, the proprietary disc format Sony's using for the Ultra Nintendo. It's stated as having a storage capacity of one gigabyte, which sounds impressive... until you remember that a single-sided, single-layer DVD IOTL holds 4.7 GB. Gigadisc, by contrast, is only barely superior to Video CD (800 MB) and regular CD (700 MB), which tells me it may be a derivative of it. IOTL, Sony was part of the DVD Consortium, and helped develop the DVD along with Philips, Toshiba, and Panasonic, but ITTL, it looks like they went their own way instead, gearing up for a format war between DVD and their proprietary Gigadisc. And since I see no reason why any other companies should side with Sony and abandon DVD (which still looks well on its way to becoming the standard) for an objectively inferior format, something tells me that Gigadisc is gonna join Betamax and MiniDisc in Sony's history of failed proprietary media.
So make that another reason why I see storm clouds in the Ultra Nintendo's future.