Plausible Successful Assassination of Hitler

Eurofed

Banned
Maybe I am mistaken, but I thought that Hungary was offered by Hitler and refused annexing or occupying all of Slovakia.

Actually IIRC the opposite was true, Horthy wanted to annex Slovakia and Hitler vetoed it.

Then will the USSR still pick up Bessarabia, or might that be a bridge too far and cause a larger war?

IMO, this rough standard would be in force in this kind of TL: the USSR may get away with unprovoked annexation of Lettonia and Estonia without causing a general war. To get away with the annexation of the Kresy and Bessarabia likely requires a war or international crisis that involve Poland and Romania and are caused by another great or regional power (such as a German-Polish or Hungarian-Romanian war). Soviet conquest of Lithuania likely requires a German-Polish crisis.

They may even get away with a Winter War (and the OTL gains) if there is another parallel international crisis in Eastern Europe (such as a German-Polish war or an Italo-Yugoslav war) to distract the European powers, although Europe would draw a line in the sand afterwards.

Unprovoked Soviet attacks on Finland, Poland, or Romania, in the absence of another crisis in Eastern Europe to cloud the issue, would likely plunge an Euro-Soviet war, and apparent Soviet attempts to go beyond OTL gains and dominate any of those nations in its entirety would very likely trigger such a general war.

By the way, this is the same guideline I used to write "Phony War, Short War": after Hitler and most of his close associates die in the Nov. 39 bomb, the army takes over, Stalin annexes the Baltic countries and makes the Winter War, Mussolini invades and defeats Yugoslavia with some effort and Hungarian-Bulgarian support. After some difficult negotiations, post-Nazi Germany and the Entente make a compromise peace, Germany keeps the Sudetenland, Danzig, West Prussia, Upper Silesia, and bits of Posen, Czechia and Poland are returned to independence and the latter keeps Gdynia, the rest of Posen, and an extraterritorial communication to the sea. There is a German-Polish exchange of minorities much like the Greco-Turkish one after WWI. The Winter War ends much like OTL, the Third Balkan War ends much like 1941, with Italy annexing central Dalmatia, Kosovo, and bits of Slovenia and Vardar Macedonia, Hungary Baja and Baracka, and Bulgaria the rest of Vardar Macedonia. Czechia and Slovakia become independent German satellites (and Finland a German client), the '39 Banovina of Croatia and Slovenia independent Italian satellites (and Hungary and Bulgaria Italian clients), resentful Poland and Yugoslavia make a bloc of their own. This peace settlement triggers a general detente between European powers, but peace is soon broken by a Hungarian-Romanian war, which the powers mediate to an outcome much like the Second Vienna Award. The Soviets intervene during the war and grab Bessarabia. This Soviet move triggers the start of an anti-Soviet Pan-European reapprochement.

Stalin turns his ambitions to the Far East, attacks Japan and invades China. With some time and effort, the Red Army defeats Japan and the KMT, conquers Manchuria and northern China (but fails to get Korea), turning both into Soviet satellites. Soviet expansionism in Asia pushes the formation of earnest Pan-European cooperation (and a Japan-KMT reluctant peace and alliance of convenience sponsored by Europe and the USA). The USSR sponsors Communist/Pan-Slav insurrections in Poland, Yugoslavia, and Bulgaria, which make the latter a Soviet satellite, but plunge the former two into civil war. Ongoing Soviet expansion and war in Asia and the civil wars in Eastern Europe bring the European bloc to support Japan in a Cold War with the Soviets, which may turn Hot any moment.
 
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Eurofed

Banned
The idea of a Soviet conquest of China (and/or Japan for that matter) is interesting, but is it really plausible?

Well, the Soviet Union was surely much more powerful than Japan on land, and the Chinese Communists demonstrably had the capacity to conquer and hold China in the right circumstances, so I think that a Soviet invasion of China in the mid-1940s to turn it into a CCP satellite (although Manchuria would likely become a SSR or a Red Manchukuo), if the bulk of the Red Army is deployed to this enterprise, minus the forces necessary to defend the European borders, may be successful.

At the very least, Soviet invasion may surely force the division of China into a CCP North China and a KMT South China. Whether the Soviets would be able to conquer all of China, or would be stopped midway, depends on various factors, including how much European and US support may improve the pathetic fighting ability of Nationalist China, how quickly and successfully the KMT and Japan may make a truce or better an alliance of convenience, how much resistance a Soviet invasion would arouse in the Chinese people, etc.

Of course, in the long term Red China may easily turn as rebellious to Soviet hegemony as OTL, and too tight Soviet control of (North) China from the start would fuel a lot of Chinese resistance, but in the brief-medium term this enterprise may yield Stalin control of a potentially very powerful, if in quite poor present condition, Chinese puppet.

Soviet conquest of Japan, OTOH, would be ASBish, since an intact IJN would always keep overwhelming naval superiority, and for that matter even a Soviet conquest of Korea would be much more difficult and less probable (although definitely possible) than during August Storm, with an intact IJA and the European powers and the USA being at worst true neutrals, at best pro-Japan ones (Europe and the USA probably are indifferent in a Soviet-Japanese war for Manchuria, but are more and more likely to turn pro-Japanese if the Soviets make a drive to conquer China and/or Korea).
 
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Actually IIRC the opposite was true, Horthy wanted to annex Slovakia and Hitler vetoed it.

I suspect that you're correct. Still, it's odd that Hitler cared that much IMO.

IMO, this rough standard would be in force in this kind of TL: the USSR may get away with unprovoked annexation of Lettonia and Estonia without causing a general war. To get away with the annexation of the Kresy and Bessarabia likely requires a war or international crisis that involve Poland and Romania and are caused by another great or regional power (such as a German-Polish or Hungarian-Romanian war). Soviet conquest of Lithuania likely requires a German-Polish crisis.

They may even get away with a Winter War (and the OTL gains) if there is another parallel international crisis in Eastern Europe (such as a German-Polish war or an Italo-Yugoslav war) to distract the European powers, although Europe would draw a line in the sand afterwards.

Unprovoked Soviet attacks on Finland, Poland, or Romania, in the absence of another crisis in Eastern Europe to cloud the issue, would likely plunge an Euro-Soviet war, and apparent Soviet attempts to go beyond OTL gains and dominate any of those nations in its entirety would very likely trigger such a general war.

By the way, this is the same guideline I used to write "Phony War, Short War": after Hitler and most of his close associates die in the Nov. 39 bomb, the army takes over, Stalin annexes the Baltic countries and makes the Winter War, Mussolini invades and defeats Yugoslavia with some effort and Hungarian-Bulgarian support. After some difficult negotiations, post-Nazi Germany and the Entente make a compromise peace, Germany keeps the Sudetenland, Danzig, West Prussia, Upper Silesia, and bits of Posen, Czechia and Poland are returned to independence and the latter keeps Gdynia, the rest of Posen, and an extraterritorial communication to the sea. There is a German-Polish exchange of minorities much like the Greco-Turkish one after WWI. The Winter War ends much like OTL, the Third Balkan War ends much like 1941, with Italy annexing central Dalmatia, Kosovo, and bits of Slovenia and Vardar Macedonia, Hungary Baja and Baracka, and Bulgaria the rest of Vardar Macedonia. Czechia and Slovakia become independent German satellites (and Finland a German client), the '39 Banovina of Croatia and Slovenia independent Italian satellites (and Hungary and Bulgaria Italian clients), resentful Poland and Yugoslavia make a bloc of their own. This peace settlement triggers a general detente between European powers, but peace is soon broken by a Hungarian-Romanian war, which the powers mediate to an outcome much like the Second Vienna Award. The Soviets intervene during the war and grab Bessarabia. This Soviet move triggers the start of an anti-Soviet Pan-European reapprochement.

Stalin turns his ambitions to the Far East, attacks Japan and invades China. With some time and effort, the Red Army defeats Japan and the KMT, conquers Manchuria and northern China (but fails to get Korea), turning both into Soviet satellites. Soviet expansionism in Asia pushes the formation of earnest Pan-European cooperation (and a reluctant Japan-KMT peace and alliance of convenience sponsored by Europe and America). The USSR sponsors Communist/Pan-Slav insurrections in Poland, Bulgaria, and Yugoslavia, which make the latter a Soviet satellite, but plunge the former two into civil war. Ongoing Soviet expansion in Asia and the civil wars in Eastern Europe bring the European bloc to support Japan in a Cold War with the Soviets, which may turn Hot any moment.

I really like aspects of what you've proposed here. You have really thought this out. Could I borrow aspets of this for a TL I'm developing?
 

Eurofed

Banned
I suspect that you're correct. Still, it's odd that Hitler cared that much IMO.

IIRC, he was mostly annoyed with Horthy that the Hungarian govenrment had quite exaggerated ;) the support that irredentist Hungarian claims on Slovakia actually got among Slovaks, and he wanted a nice quiet and stable Axis Slovak vassal, regardless of who ruled it.

I really like aspects of what you've proposed here. You have really thought this out. Could I borrow aspets of this for a TL I'm developing?

You have my blessing :D and thanks for your appreciation of my earnest efforts. It has been my observation that even rather more so than most other AH subjects, "Axis nations do better" TLs need to be very well thought out and researched on this board if they don't want to be skinned alive at first glance by naysayers.

There seem to be a quite vocal board element that passionately hates them out for various apparent reasons (annoyance at a very clichè AH subject, nationalist fanboyism for Alliedwanks, ideological prejudice, etc.) so Axiswank TLs need to be of some rather good quality in order to gain at least some support against the "God loves the Allies/democracy/communism and hates the Axis/fascism" crowd.
 
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Eurofed - thanks for pointing out those two TL's. I'll scuttle off and read them as they both sound quite interesting. Not sure how I've missed them previously.
 
Either the bomb in the cellar, or the bomb on the plane, those are the best case scenarios for an assassination to succeed

I don't see why everyone is putting Goering down, so to speak. He would certainly succeed after he was made legal successor and probably succeed before then (after all that was WHY he was made legal successor). He had a lot of political influence and was as clever a political player as any of the Nazi elite who basically formed shifting alliances within their own ranks to get anything done

Heydrich is JUNIOR to Himmler and though through political machination he might one day rise to a position where he could challenge for the succession, it would IMHO be around 1950 at the earliest, barring something happening to Himmler.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

I don't doubt that if it was necessary, something could be...arranged...
 
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