Plausible German gains in a "Notzi"-Polish War in 1930 or early 1940s?

Of the maps displayed above, which "Notzi" German gains (in blue) would compel UK & France to DoW?

  • a) 4 corners, landbridge to E. Prussia is matched by Polish landbridge to Gdynia

    Votes: 1 2.6%
  • b) Germany takes a wide corridor in East Prussia

    Votes: 8 21.1%
  • c) Germany takes a wide corridor in East Prussia & Upper Silesia

    Votes: 10 26.3%
  • d) Germany reclaims all pre-1914 eastern territory

    Votes: 20 52.6%
  • e) Germany reclaims all Polish territory up to the line of 1794

    Votes: 4 10.5%
  • f) Germany takes all of Congress Poland and West Galicia

    Votes: 2 5.3%
  • g) Germany takes all of Poland west of Curzon line

    Votes: 3 7.9%
  • h) Germany takes all of Poland except Belarussian & Ukrainian majority areas

    Votes: 2 5.3%
  • i) Germany takes all Galicia and Poland except for the northeast

    Votes: 2 5.3%
  • j) Germany takes all of interwar Poland in its ToV and Treaty of Riga borders

    Votes: 4 10.5%

  • Total voters
    38

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
Professional historian Henry Ashby Turner, and countless others have speculated on the Hitler and the Nazi party failing to come to power with some alternative military, monarchical or democratic regime in its place.

Turner, for his part, elaborates on what he sees as the likely foreign policy aims of a "Notzi" Germany under say, Wilhelm Schleicher. His conclusion, WWII would not happen, but a German-Polish, localized war, is probable

(2) There very likely would have been another war, but only with Poland.
The generals had no great desire for Alsace-Lorraine--the Alsatians and
Lorrainers had from their viewpoint made very poor Germans from 1871 to
1918. Nor were the generals much interested in Austria and the
Sudetenland. Finally, they did not dream of Lebensraum in the East and did
not harbor hostility to the USSR. In fact, they had been working with the
Soviet military for years to circumvent the disarmament clauses of the
Versailles Treaty.

(3) With respect to Poland, things were different. The generals, like most
other Germans, did want the Corridor back, and the Poles were unlikely to
yield on this. So a German-Polish war was likely. But it is doubtful that
this would have been a *world* war. A great deal of prior provocation on
Hitler's part was necessary to have Britain and France issue guarantees to
Poland. By holding on to limited demands (which it could justify on
grounds of self-determination, especially for Danzig and much of the
Corridor), Germany could probably avoid British or French intervention.
Soviet intervention would be avoided, as in OTL, by giving the USSR eastern
Poland (or if you prefer, western Ukraine and western Belorussia). But in
order to avoid western intervention, the Germans would allow a Polish state
to remain (shorn of some territories, such as the Corridor). Essentially,
everyone would be satisfied with the results except the Poles--and even
they of course would fare much better than in OTL.

However, how much territory could Germany plausibly gain in such a war on Poland, without triggering a declaration of war by Britain and France?

If either by accident or design, Germany is grabbing large, unmistakably ethnic Polish territories, can Britain and France stay out of it?

As for the Poles, if a German land grab is successful in Danzig and the corridor, will they keep fighting, hoping the war will spread and bring in other powers? Or will the Poles settle, however sullenly? If the Poles in German occupied lands or from the still Polish territories do guerrilla warfare or raids against occupying German forces in the corridor, how thoroughly will Germany seek to squash this violation of the international pecking order? In other words, how hard or easy is it to stop a German-Polish war short of total annihilation and occupation?

Getting back to the question of potential German gains in victory, I've illustrated some examples below:

a)
Notzi gains-8, Danzig & 4-cornered  land bridges for Germany and Polan.gif





b)
Notzi gains-9, Danzig & wide West  Prussia corridor, landlocked Poland.gif


c)
Notzi gains-10, Danzig & wide West  Prussia corridor & upper Silesia, landlocked Poland.gif


d)
Notzi gains in Polish War1.gif


e)
Notzi gains in Polish War2.gif


f)
Notzi gains in Polish War3.gif


g)
Notzi gains in Polish War4.gif


h)
Notzi gains in Polish War5.gif


i)
Notzi gains in Polish War6.gif


j)
Notzi gains in Polish War7.gif
 
Since we don't have many details about the alternate ideology, any of those are a possibility, and so is the possibility of no annexation at all but turning Poland into a client state.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
OK, so far no one was willing to vote for Britain and France declaring war on a non-Nazi Germany if it launched a campaign to seize Danzig and establish a land corridor to East Prussia.

However, a relatively large number of people (6 & 5 votes respectively) voted that broader German annexations (choice b, West Prussia and Upper Silesia) or an attempted German restoration of the 1914 eastern border (choice c) would be a breaking point for Britain and France that they could not tolerate and lead them to go to war.

Why so?

The rightist, militarist, not Nazi but Prussian regime envisioned by Turner and others likely would not have provoked the west with the following outrages before the Polish war: no Nuremburg laws, no Anschluss with Austria, no Kristalnacht, no Czech crisis of 1938 and no occupation of Bohemia in 39.

Is this alternate Germany going for restoration of its 1914 eastern border, or the majority of that territory just too much territorial revision for Britain and France to accept? Is additional marginal German greed enough for them to accept that the dreaded privations of war are necessary?
 
I think that Germany can get away with annexing Danzig, the Polish Corridor, and eastern Upper Silesia (and, of course, the Memelland if it wants it). I think that capturing Posen and anything beyond that would have triggered an Anglo-French DoW on Germany.
 
Of course, Britain and France might demand that Germany give Gdynia and probably a part of Upper Silesia back to Poland if Germany actually wants Britain and France to recognize these new borders.
 
Since these are Notzis, make a deal with Poland to keep the area around Danzig, but keeping that a Free City.
Deal is Poland gets their Baltic access by giving a sliver between East Prussia and Lithuania

Memelland_1923-1939.png
 
1) During 1930s Polish Corridor is ethnically no less Polish than Posen, Germans are 10-15% miniority. German annexation is hardly ethnically justified.
2) Second Polish Republic was considered by France to be part of their sphere of influence. France definitely would be really happy to lose it to Germans ;) -it is obvious, that whatever remains from Poland after war, would be German puppet/colony.

Localised war would not work. It would be seen in the West as the same war of aggression as IOTL in 1939. And France, as von Neurath already predicted IOTL, would not give up her sphere of influence in Central Europe.
 
1) During 1930s Polish Corridor is ethnically no less Polish than Posen, Germans are 10-15% miniority. German annexation is hardly ethnically justified.

The Germans are going to use the 1918 data + Danzig to justify their claims. They'll say that the Polish Corridor and Danzig are one economic unit.

2) Second Polish Republic was considered by France to be part of their sphere of influence. France definitely would be really happy to lose it to Germans ;) -it is obvious, that whatever remains from Poland after war, would be German puppet/colony.

Localised war would not work. It would be seen in the West as the same war of aggression as IOTL in 1939. And France, as von Neurath already predicted IOTL, would not give up her sphere of influence in Central Europe.

Yes, because France was willing to fight tooth and nail to protect Czechoslovakia in our TL. Oh wait!
 
Yes, because France was willing to fight tooth and nail to protect Czechoslovakia in our TL. Oh wait!
France sacrificed Sudetenland not because they tought it is justifed German claim. Munich was intendent to buy the time for rearmament for Western Allies. They just didn't knew, that the time they've bought is just few months.
 
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