I would really appreciate some of your thoughts on an idea I had last night.
Background Information: For those of you who don't know the Quasi-War was a series of events that constituted an undeclared war between the French Republic and the USA between 1798 and 1800. These events led to the revival of the American navy and the reformation of a provisional American army to meet these threats as well as the unpopular Sedition and Alien acts being passed by Congress.
Quasi-War (wiki)
XYZ Affair (the affair which led to the escalation of the conflict
But What If... In this TL something happens to cause the Quasi-War to escalate into a full blown conflict? Perhaps a French privateer commits an especially egregious act during the wave of anti-French sentiment that swept the country following the revelation of the XYZ affair. Remember that the Federalists under Hamilton were all too eager to declare war on France. I doubt it would take much to push the US Congress into declaring war on France.
Here's an idea: Let's say a privateer with abolitionist tendencies comes across a slave ship outside of Charleston SC. In a brazen act he takes the ship, frees the slaves and lands them in Spanish Florida. Though not particularly harmful, rumors quickly spread and the fact that such an act took place right outside of Charleston only adds to the anti-French fervor increasing support for the war even amongst Southern Democratic Republicans who now see French acts as threatening their way of life. This creates enough momentum for Congress to formally declare war in 1798, raise taxes, and begin rebuilding the US Navy and reconstituting the US Army.
Furthermore... This formal declaration of war threatens to bring Spain in. Though initially it probably wouldn't include Spain, I think both America and Spain would be concerned about Spain's potential entry into the conflict. On the American side I could see them fearing the French using their Spanish ally's American possessions as a base from which to launch further privateering expeditions against American shipping etc. I could also see Spain fearing America using it's war with France as an excuse to go after Spanish possessions in America.
(Are these plausible fears?) Furthermore people in Georgia have always eyed Spanish Florida warily as a location for runaway slaves and a potential threat.
I don't think it's too much of a stretch to say that any escalation of the Quasi-War threatens to Bring Spain into the mix. Spain will undoubtedly increase arms shipments to the South-eastern Native Americans as a precaution perhaps resulting in Georgia launching a filibuster expedition to seize St. Augustine. Add to this a case of mistaken identity/poor communication/pride on the high seas leading to a battle between American and Spanish vessels and I think you could reasonably see Congress expand the war to include France's ally in Spain.
Now the question is: What would be the result of such a war? Obviously it's not going to be a long-lived war. Neither Spain nor France really has the resources to pursue a war against the US and the US doesn't really have that much of a causus beli. Furthermore once Napoleon or his ATL replacement comes to power, he's going to want to cut his losses and end such a conflict pretty quick. I have a hard time seeing this conflict lasting very long.
So what can the Americans take? Florida is an obvious first step, Spanish Control never was that strong over the region. A pair of expeditions against Pensecola and St. Augustine will effectively turn over control of the region to the US. New Orleans is another easy target. A small expedition down the Mississippi coupled with a revolt of the French citizens against their Spanish overlords could easily secure the Mouth of the Mississippi for the US. When the war ends I could see Napoleon convincing Spain to give up Florida and part of Louisiana to the US to help bring an end to the conflict.
Of course this butterflies away the Louisiana Purchase...
Does this idea have any potential? Other thoughts?