Plausibilty Check

in a southern victory scenario, where France backs the Confederacy, what is the plausibility of Great Britain staying neutral? especially if the German Empire supports the USA from say 1877-78 onward. how would this effect the out come of a ww1.
 
Its pretty implausible unless you are writing a work of fiction. The French pretty much aren't going to be doing anything by themselves regarding intervention in the War Between the States.

In the same sense, it would be pretty useless, except for a work of fiction, for the German Empire to worry about anybody else outside of Europe until the turn of the century.

Given the parameters you have laid down there is no reason to believe that 'ww1' will occur as per OTL.
 
Neutrality is not only plausible, it's pretty much mandatory. 1848 may not have produced a major rebellion in Britain, but it did wipe out most of the accumulated equity in the financial markets; then a round of bond financing to pay for the Crimea, 1851-1854; then a round of bond financing to pay for the Sepoy Uprising, 1857-58. A third round of bond financing for a significant foreign war in 1861 will be just what it takes to destroy the British bond market altogether, and the Chancellor of the Exchequer knows that, no matter who he is. The Confederates don't understand that, of course, but their rebellion is timed almost perfectly to make British support impossible.

Napoleon III's France can intervene in part because Nappy understands a good deal less about the financial consequences to himself.

What does "German Empire supports the USA" look like? To do what? The two nations have no common interests at this point, aside from perhaps a mutual dislike of France, but that isn't going to amount to anything, particularly since the likelihood of rump USA being a great naval power in the 1870s is basically zero.
 
Implausible in the extreme as the French wanted to do this IOTL but would not do that unless the British were already willing to sanction it. And in any case, French aid would be mainly secured to protect Mexico, not out of sympathy for the Confederacy. It's also hard to see a Confederacy ITTL being able to survive what will happen if the USA treats it as South Vietnam/South Korea writ large. In any such hypothetical Round II the Confederate experiment comes to a brutal and ignominous end. And there's also no case where the USA, with a hostile neighbor to the South that in any case where it wins due to foreign backing, would *not* have a much larger army to patrol the new border. It'd be required.
 
The British may be perfectly willing to give Nappy "permission" to assist without assisting themselves. It's a win-win for them, two of their more annoying rivals fighting each other...
 
why i ask this is i have a rough, a very rough draft of a ATL were the south secedes early and is back by France. when i say early i mean about 1858-59 is when secession comes, so right about the time when Buchanan is ready to leave the presidency. the south pulls away and Buchanan lets it, there fore the blame is put on the Democrats, leaving room for a newer, radical party to pop up. my only problem is that its so clechie that GB would help the CSA. thats why i thought if GB could some how remain neutral, once the events of 1914 happen, which who is to say it has to be Franzy getting poped, the world would be sucked into a war.

i see the German Empire siding with the US as basically a counter balance. it would sort of take the USA under its wing with the hopes that if something happened theyd have the USA to keep the CSA tied down in America
 
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