Plausibilty Check : No Baltic Crusade

[Ridwan Asher]

Say, was there any chance for Crusaders to be prevented from setting their feet in the Baltics ? Indeed, during early mid 13th century the relations between Poland and the Pagan Prussians were already to hostile with each other and the Prussian Pagans proofed to be fairly formidable enemy. However, was the Crusade really inevitable ?

 

[Devi]

Stronger Arab Caliphate

If the Arabs are more successful and manage to get a strong base in Europe then the Catholics will be to busy to think about the north..that might delay their crusade enough so that a crusade is considered anachronistic by the time they turn their attention northwards

 

[Philip]

However, was the Crusade really inevitable ?

Do you mean specifically the Prussian Crusade, or all of the Northern Crusades?

Assuming it is the former, stopping attempts to subjugate/convert the Prussians seems rather unlikely. However, preventing the establishment of Germanic knightly states is easier to achieve. If Masovia/Poland is more successful against the Prussians, or the Teutonic Order gets along better with the Hungarians, the Teutonic Order will never be invited to establish itself in Prussia.

If the Arabs are more successful and manage to get a strong base in Europe then the Catholics will be to busy to think about the north..

That does not follow. In fact, the opposite might occur. Expansion of Islam in Southern Europe may make the Christians in Northern Europe interested in subjugating their pagan neighbors earlier.

Remember also the history of the Teutonic Order -- they were established to fight in the Levant, but end up in Prussia after a stint in Hungary

 

[Ridwan Asher]

Do you mean specifically the Prussian Crusade, or all of the Northern Crusades?

Assuming it is the former, stopping attempts to subjugate/convert the Prussians seems rather unlikely. However, preventing the establishment of Germanic knightly states is easier to achieve. If Masovia/Poland is more successful against the Prussians, or the Teutonic Order gets along better with the Hungarians, the Teutonic Order will never be invited to establish itself in Prussia.


That does not follow. In fact, the opposite might occur. Expansion of Islam in Southern Europe may make the Christians in Northern Europe interested in subjugating their pagan neighbors earlier.

Remember also the history of the Teutonic Order -- they were established to fight in the Levant, but end up in Prussia after a stint in Hungary

Indeed, I mean specifically to prevent the establishments of the Baltic Crusade Orders, and hopefully to also rescue the existence of the Baltic Prussian people as a nation. Indeed, Christianization of the Baltics was simply inevitable, but there could have been at least un-Germanized Baltic Prussian Christians.

How could've the establishment of the Order in the region be prevented, and when would've been the latest for it ? Without the order, what would become of the Baltic regio-politics ? Who will come to dominate the region in the absence of the Crusader Orders ? I assume it will be the Danes, but as whether it will be on the scale of OTL Teutonic Order in as immediately or not, I have no idea.....

 

[Philip]

How could've the establishment of the Order in the region be prevented, and when would've been the latest for it ?

Quick response without too much thought:

IIRC (and that is a big assumption) OTL went something like
1200 Sword Brothers established in Riga
1225 Teutonic Order booted from Hungary. Invited by Masovia to come to Prussia.
1230's Lithuanians et al defeat Sword Brothers at Battle of Saul(?). Remaining Sword Brothers absorbed by Teutonic Order. TO goes on to dominate area.

I think the expelling of the Teutonic Knights is a critical point. If they never come to Prussia, the defeat of the Sword Brothers would at least temporarily remove the Orders from the region.

If there are still enough Old Prussians around in the 1430s (?), they could benefit from the Polish-Teutonic War. I am not sure if there were enough left at this point to resist assimilation.

Who will come to dominate the region in the absence of the Crusader Orders ? I assume it will be the Danes, but as whether it will be on the scale of OTL Teutonic Order in as immediately or not, I have no idea

My guess is that no one would dominate the entire region as quickly. The Danes would certainly be strong. Novogorod/Pskov could be more influential (this is the time of Nevsky). Swedes and Poles have a chance too.

If there is a great victory against the Orders, driving them out of the area, could it serve as rallying point for the consolidation of some of the Baltic peoples?

 

[abas]

Quick response without too much thought:

IIRC (and that is a big assumption) OTL went something like
1200 Sword Brothers established in Riga

In 1202

1230's Lithuanians et al defeat Sword Brothers at Battle of Saul(?). Remaining Sword Brothers absorbed by Teutonic Order. TO goes on to dominate area.

In 22 September, 1236, absorbed in 1237.

I think the expelling of the Teutonic Knights is a critical point. If they never come to Prussia, the defeat of the Sword Brothers would at least temporarily remove the Orders from the region.

If there are still enough Old Prussians around in the 1430s (?), they could benefit from the Polish-Teutonic War. I am not sure if there were enough left at this point to resist assimilation.


My guess is that no one would dominate the entire region as quickly. The Danes would certainly be strong. Novogorod/Pskov could be more influential (this is the time of Nevsky). Swedes and Poles have a chance too.

If there is a great victory against the Orders, driving them out of the area, could it serve as rallying point for the consolidation of some of the Baltic peoples?

The best candidate to dominate and unite Baltic people was Lithuania, the quickly growing power in the region. Poles were divided at the time. Estonian tribes were starting to unite, but collapsed, when assaulted from two directions, by Danes and the Sword brothers.
Now Novgorod and Pskov. They are not likely. To shake off the dominance of the Great Princes of Vladimir Novgorod (and Pskov to gain independence from Novgorod. BTW the one of reasons for war that ended in the battle on Peipus lake (Ice battle) was one of such quarrels between Pskov and Novgorod. Pskovians (I hope , that is right word) were present in battle of Saulė, as allies of the Sword brothers) used aliances with archbishop of Riga, the Sword brothers or Teutonic knights, while Nevsky was representing the Great prince of Vladimir.

 

[Ridwan Asher]

Quick response without too much thought:

IIRC (and that is a big assumption) OTL went something like
1200 Sword Brothers established in Riga
1225 Teutonic Order booted from Hungary. Invited by Masovia to come to Prussia.
1230's Lithuanians et al defeat Sword Brothers at Battle of Saul(?). Remaining Sword Brothers absorbed by Teutonic Order. TO goes on to dominate area.

I think the expelling of the Teutonic Knights is a critical point. If they never come to Prussia, the defeat of the Sword Brothers would at least temporarily remove the Orders from the region.

I'm looking for a PoD no earlier than 1215 to prevent Teutonic Order from coming to the Baltics. Or will it be to late ?

What I'm still curious about is whether their arrival to Prussia was inevitable or not when the conflict between Mazovia and Prussians is already running. But it seems if Mazovian would be more successful at their first campaign againts them perhaps Teutonic Order won't be needed.

That, or while in Hungary they didn't run into conflict with their employer....

Wonder what the absence of the Order would do to the Baltics' economy, especially in regards of the influence over the German traders involved, which in turn, connected to the seeds that IOTL would've become Hanseatic League....

 

[Devi]

That does not follow. In fact, the opposite might occur. Expansion of Islam in Southern Europe may make the Christians in Northern Europe interested in subjugating their pagan neighbors earlier.

Remember also the history of the Teutonic Order -- they were established to fight in the Levant, but end up in Prussia after a stint in Hungary

I think that in reality the Catholics would not accept an Islamic presence in southern Europe. We would see a rather expanded version of the reqonquesta with goal to push the Muslims at least outside Europe before the Christian states would turn their eyes to what was at the point and will be even more now a relative backwater. ( the backwater part is from my minimal knowledge of northern Europe at this time so excuse me if i am mistaken)

 

[yourworstnightmare]

If we have no Teutonic and Livonian Knights I guess Poland would be the most likley candidate to expand in the Baltics and Prussia. Scandinavian States and Novgorod might try to get a piece of the cake too.