Plausibility: Reagan succeeds Ford in '80

As the title suggests, what is the plausibility that Ronald Reagan succeeds Gerald Ford as President of the United States in 1980?

Some of this may be ASB territory, but a theoretical POD is Kennedy getting reelected in '64 and seeking an early resolution to Vietnam. He'd likely still be succeeded by Nixon in '68, who might have more time for healthcare reform and in this hypothetical scenario dies in '74 (no Watergate). Ford is sworn in, wins in '76 and is ineligible for the '80 nomination, which goes to Reagan. Reagan wins; history takes a similar course to OTL with few differences.

What would it take for this to happen? Who would the Democratic nominee be in '80 that could lose to Reagan? What about in '76? What happens to Iran, etc.?
 
Ford gets elected in 1976 after a broadly successful Humphrey presidency, which saw the economy continue to prosper and an earlier end to Vietnam. However, the Ford presidency is punctured by a recession and Reagan primaries and beats him in 1980. Only somewhat to the failed Ford presidency, Reagan is able to just edge out a victory against the uninspiring Democrat.

In the OP's scenario, I cannot see the GOP win another four years after twelve years that probably end with recession.

history takes a similar course to OTL with few differences.

No Vietnam would have truly tremendous effects on American society.
 
First off, explain why Nixon would die in 1974 ITL. Was he in particularly bad health in the OTL?

Nixon fell ill with phlebitis in late 1974 and almost refused surgery in OTL, so yes he potentially could have died earlier.

Ford gets elected in 1976 after a broadly successful Humphrey presidency, which saw the economy continue to prosper and an earlier end to Vietnam.

Isn't the common wisdom that Ford would only be elected in '76 after already having been President for two years?

No Vietnam would have truly tremendous effects on American society.

True.
 
Isn't the common wisdom that Ford would only be elected in '76 after already having been President for two years?

I don't know about that. Moderate Republican quite liked by many Democrats - sounds like he'd be at the top of a Republican's book for an electable candidate - and the Republicans would desire electability after sixteen years away from the Whitehouse.
 
Could a different Federal Reserve Chairman or other factors have softened the blow of the recession?

Keep the Yom Kippur War from happening and the Stagflation crisis is reduced, though the anomaly of unemployment and inflation increasing at the same time will still be difficult to resolve by anyone.

Keeping the Vietnam War from happening is another way of keeping Stagflation from happening, though my personal POD for that is to kill LBJ in 1965 and have Hubert Humphrey, who is documented to have wanted the US to leave Vietnam at that time (unlike Kennedy, who seems to have wanted at least a somewhat sizeable number of American advisors and troops there). It would also avert the possibility of having Johnson's various reforms delayed. With that POD, a mere recession that can be resolved a lot easier may happen rather than the anomaly that was stagflation.
 
Keep the Yom Kippur War from happening and the Stagflation crisis is reduced, though the anomaly of unemployment and inflation increasing at the same time will still be difficult to resolve by anyone.

Keeping the Vietnam War from happening is another way of keeping Stagflation from happening, though my personal POD for that is to kill LBJ in 1965 and have Hubert Humphrey, who is documented to have wanted the US to leave Vietnam at that time (unlike Kennedy, who seems to have wanted at least a somewhat sizeable number of American advisors and troops there). It would also avert the possibility of having Johnson's various reforms delayed. With that POD, a mere recession that can be resolved a lot easier may happen rather than the anomaly that was stagflation.

You've got a great point there. I've always had a suspicion that the people insisting Kennedy would have pulled out of Vietnam were missing something, especially since RFK literally said in an interview his brother had no intention of doing so. The original question on this post mostly comes from the show Fringe, which features an alternate history along the lines of what I wrote at the top. The writers probably went with Kennedy ending Vietnam & continuing his New Frontier programs since it's kind of a go-to thing for pop culture alternate history. It's not as realistic but it is a TV show after all.
 
If Kennedy gets the US out of Vietnam in the 60's, would Nixon necesssarily have been the Republican nominee? His internationalist credentials were a big selling point for him in OTL when the war was still going on. Without that, why would he be considered a viable contender?

I've seen a story with a similar premise of JFK living and pulling out of Vietnam, which, in this peacetime U.S. that's more focused on domestic issues than international conflicts, sees Reagan himself as the Republican nominee in 1968.
 

James G

Gone Fishin'
As the title suggests, what is the plausibility that Ronald Reagan succeeds Gerald Ford as President of the United States in 1980?

Some of this may be ASB territory, but a theoretical POD is Kennedy getting reelected in '64 and seeking an early resolution to Vietnam. He'd likely still be succeeded by Nixon in '68, who might have more time for healthcare reform and in this hypothetical scenario dies in '74 (no Watergate). Ford is sworn in, wins in '76 and is ineligible for the '80 nomination, which goes to Reagan. Reagan wins; history takes a similar course to OTL with few differences.

What would it take for this to happen? Who would the Democratic nominee be in '80 that could lose to Reagan? What about in '76? What happens to Iran, etc.?

Your POD actually needs to be Kennedy surviving Dallas in 1963, not being re-elected in 1964.
 
Nixon fell ill with phlebitis in late 1974 and almost refused surgery in OTL, so yes he potentially could have died earlier.
I think of phlebitis as that weird thing with leg circulation. I don't know if it's all that weird, I just haven't heard all that much about it.

One Nixon movie portrays him as rather recklessly continuing with his schedule in spite of the phlebitis.

And in Gerald Ford's autobiography A Time To Heal, around October '74 Ford was visiting California and visited the former president in the hospital and it was pretty serious.

So, yes, could have possibly been fatal.
 
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