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For a while, I've been thinking of writing a TL where Madagascar remains independent and becomes an imperial power in its own right. (Yes, a Meiji-style situation, just like Japan.)

After researching Malagasy history on Wikipedia, I'm fairly sure of what internal developments in Madagascar would allow for this. However, I'm stuck on how this might happen in relation to British and French colonialism. I know that this would require the Merina to kick the French out of Madagascar, but what would keep with British from marching right in to replace them? I'm not especially familiar with the diplomatic history of European powers in the late 19th century.

These are my questions:

1. What sort of developments in the relationship between the UK and France would allow for an independent Madagascar? (Increased hostility? War? If so, when?)

2. Would the British ever tolerate an expansionist Madagascar? (E.g. seizing Mozambique from Portugal during a Portuguese civil war.) What sort of relationship would this require between Madagascar and the UK?

3. I know that Europe had racist attitudes towards Japan in this era, and did not exactly welcome it into the club of imperial powers. How would racism, which would definitely be far more intense in regard to Madagascar, affect European countries' attitudes and hostility towards a powerful Madagascar?

If anyone could help me resolve these issues, it would be greatly helpful.
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