Plausibility of an independent Madagascar?

For a while, I've been thinking of writing a TL where Madagascar remains independent and becomes an imperial power in its own right. (Yes, a Meiji-style situation, just like Japan.)

After researching Malagasy history on Wikipedia, I'm fairly sure of what internal developments in Madagascar would allow for this. However, I'm stuck on how this might happen in relation to British and French colonialism. I know that this would require the Merina to kick the French out of Madagascar, but what would keep with British from marching right in to replace them? I'm not especially familiar with the diplomatic history of European powers in the late 19th century.

These are my questions:

1. What sort of developments in the relationship between the UK and France would allow for an independent Madagascar? (Increased hostility? War? If so, when?)

2. Would the British ever tolerate an expansionist Madagascar? (E.g. seizing Mozambique from Portugal during a Portuguese civil war.) What sort of relationship would this require between Madagascar and the UK?

3. I know that Europe had racist attitudes towards Japan in this era, and did not exactly welcome it into the club of imperial powers. How would racism, which would definitely be far more intense in regard to Madagascar, affect European countries' attitudes and hostility towards a powerful Madagascar?

If anyone could help me resolve these issues, it would be greatly helpful.
 
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This is a great TL! I have been recently reading about precolonial Malagasy history on Wikipedia and it its quite impressive.

I am of mediocre knowledge on Madagascar, but I think you would probably want a POD sometime in the late Middle ages, before the Portuguese came but with a rather well developed Madagascar. Madagascar probably could have built an empire on the coast of Southeast Africa then and expanded further, though I would research more about the nearby coast during the POD if I were you.
 
This is a great TL! I have been recently reading about precolonial Malagasy history on Wikipedia and it its quite impressive.

I am of mediocre knowledge on Madagascar, but I think you would probably want a POD sometime in the late Middle ages, before the Portuguese came but with a rather well developed Madagascar. Madagascar probably could have built an empire on the coast of Southeast Africa then and expanded further, though I would research more about the nearby coast during the POD if I were you.

Oh, I had actually been thinking of a POD as late as 1855 - Prince Rakoto, later Radama II, refuses to sign the Lambert Charter, but invites Joseph-François Lambert and other foreign investors back under different conditions when his reign begins in 1861, jump-starting industrialization.

I'd have him survive the assassination attempt that killed him in OTL, and as contracts with foreign investors expired, he'd gradually bring their enterprises under state control or under control of Malagasy companies.

But your idea is an interesting possibility, too. Although I hadn't really considered that, because the island wasn't united until late early 1800s, and I'm not sure if the island's economy would have been advanced enough back then to sustain such expansion.
 
1. What sort of developments in the relationship between the UK and France would allow for an independent Madagascar? (Increased hostility? War? If so, when?)

You could probably have the same relations more or less, but with different concessions elsewhere to keep the French happy.

A Britain more paranoid about the Jewel of the Empire or the French managing to actually control the Suez Canal, thus making the route not
secure would definately make the British opposed to the French being in Madagascar as it would threaten (one of) their routes to India.


2. Would the British ever tolerate an expansionist Madagascar? (E.g. seizing Mozambique from Portugal during a Portuguese civil war.) What sort of relationship would this require between Madagascar and the UK?

If it did'nt threaten their own interests and/or they had some sort of positive relationship with the Malagasy they may, though only to a point.


3. I know that Europe had racist attitudes towards Japan in this era, and did not exactly welcome it into the club of imperial powers. How would racism, which would definitely be far more intense in regard to Madagascar, affect European countries' attitudes and hostility towards a powerful Madagascar?

It would probably affect fewer than Japan did, since it would be in an area that, while important to several of the European powers (Britain,
France & Germany), is overall less important to the rest of the world.
 
The superb Fight and Be Right TL has an independent Madagascar, but it happens in the 1890s and Madagascar doesn't become a significant power. Still, check it out.
 
I wrote a paper about colonial Madagascar, but unfortunately don't remember enough and can't find it.

I know one leader of Madgascar (probably Ranavalona III) sent ambassadors to a number of Western countries, including Germany and the US to seek help in maintaining their independence. Neither of these countries had the motivation or influence in the region to do much. So, so much for that...

For the Malagasy Kingdom to last I think you basically need the support of the British. It doesn't seem that far-fetched, if the British had a vested interest in having effectual control over the island or in NOT having the French have it. Of course, France and the UK were trying their best to get along at this point so neither would risk upsetting the other over helping the Malagasy.

The Merina had a fairly good hold on the entire island by the mid 1800s, due to strategic relations with the next most powerful group, the Sakalava. The shared language helped united Madagascar too. A stable government and good economic relationship with the European powers helps their cause for independence. Basically, the UK and France would have to decide it was best if neither had it. And, as someone else said, France would need somewhere else nearby instead (Mozambique? The British clearly saw nothing sacred in Portuguese claims in Africa) or a good reason to ignore the interests of the Reunion elites.

An independent Madagascar is more likely than just about any other African nation that was colonized. It just needs a powerful friend.

EDIT: Sorry if bringing back an old thread is a faux pas. Not sure of all the site's etiquette yet.
 
The superb Fight and Be Right TL has an independent Madagascar, but it happens in the 1890s and Madagascar doesn't become a significant power. Still, check it out.
Hehe. I was about to write something similar before I saw this was a necro.
 
A good POD might be Radama I not dying in his thirties and continuing his program of education and military modernization. If he lives to 70, dying in 1863, he'll have another 35 years to develop the country, and Madagascar will avoid the period of isolationism that occurred under that nutcase Ranavalona I. The succession would then pass directly to either Rakotobe (who presumably wouldn't have been murdered by Ranavalona), or to Radama II, both of whom were also modernizers. That might give Madagascar a fighting chance to build an army that would make the conquest of the highlands too difficult to be worth the trouble, and it might be able to get away with giving either Britain or France coastal basing rights and treaty ports in return for guarantees of its independence.
 
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