Hey, this is my first thread on the website but I've been lurking and reading for a long time. I think my first exposure to something I really understood as alternate history was the Domination of Draka setting by SM Stirling, and that somehow led me to this forum; specifically, to Municipal Engines' fantastic timeline A Crack at Draka. It has stuck with me for a long time, and I have read a few other Draka timelines (among many others, don't worry!). For some reason, Draka just has a particular appeal to me, and lately I have been giving it a lot of thought and considering my own take on the concept, in many ways shamefully inspired by A Crack at Draka.
With that being said, I have a sort of concept in mind that I was hoping to seek feedback on for its plausibility. Obviously, Draka is inherently implausible and I don't intend to turn the concept into a comparatively less interesting "bigger South Africa"; that would be relatively easy to achieve by having it include Zimbabwe, Botswana, Namibia, maybe southern Mozambique, and surrounding propped up puppet states such as in Katanga, Angola, Mozambique (or what remains). All of that I feel like is, if not plausible, at least not difficult to write an alternate history about using a PoD as late as the 20th century. No, this take on the Draka I intend to make more ambitious but not quite as absurd as Stirling's. In my mind, the end point of the Draka would have them rule over all of Africa in one degree or another, and this would not be accomplished until the second half of the 20th century.
But I am getting ahead of myself. Let me introduce the PoD and the early course of this timeline as I envision it.
Point of Divergence: In reality, more of a bundle of PoDs. If you think this is overly implausible, please say so. The first is that the Dutch and the English both set up their own colonies in the Cape or in South Africa in the first half of the 17th century, instead of the Dutch taking until 1652 and the English not bothering at all (at least, not until they became the British and took the Dutch colony during the French revolutionary wars). For the English, perhaps they decide to follow up on Andrew Shilling's claim of the area and settle it in the 1620s. Most likely these colonies are initially EIC and VOC run, but similarly to IOTL with the Dutch Cape Colony, they cease to become company colonies not too long after their establishment and instead are active settler colonies in order to solidify the mother country's hold on the area and to outcompete the other colony. I imagine that over the course of the 17th century, with the Anglo-Dutch Wars, fighting between the colonies occurs but neither manages to destroy or conquer the other. English instability with the Civil War makes it hard for the colony to know who to take orders from and what to do, and the Dutch have little interest in occupying a comparatively well settled colony so far away when they are dealing with their own wars with the Portuguese and the Spanish. So the two colonies fight but don't destroy each other, and both develop with significantly more support and settlement than the OTL Dutch Cape Colony received (but still nowhere near North American colonization efforts). As an aside, the Dutch hold onto Luanda instead of losing it in 1648, and so Portuguese Angola never forms.
The next major PoD is that William and Mary still take the throne in the Glorious Revolution, however they have children when they do so and as a result the House of Orange maintains its position on the throne and Stadtholder of the Dutch Republic. This is the more unlikely of the two major PoDs in my estimation, but I find it too enticing not to have. As a result of the continuation of this quasi "personal union" between the two countries, perhaps it degenerates into simply maintaining dynastic ties, relations between the English and the Dutch stay good for the next several decades. As a result, the two colonies in South Africa collaborate more closely to deal with local issues and threats, especially natives. They both expand, taking more land that is then offered to potential colonists and settlers in Europe, and thus the population grows faster and larger than IOTL. Using Excel and the North American British colonies as a rough, if not really proper, analogue, I have the European descended population of these two South African colonies reach around 120,000 by 1750, which is several times larger than the Dutch population was at the time. This is due to the increased efforts by the Dutch, the presence of the English colony and their efforts, and these compounding in the colony and area becoming increasingly developed and attractive to settlement. Obviously it would never compete with America, but I suspect it would definitely do substantially better than IOTL.
Anyways, from there on I have some faint ideas, but in truth the plausibility of these points is important to anything that follows as IOTL South Africa simply lacked the population to be anything other than a regional power at best. My goal with these PoDs is to allow for a substantially larger white population in the area, one that would hopefully reach over 1 million by 1850 and over 5 million by 1900. Any feedback or suggestions would be highly welcome!
With that being said, I have a sort of concept in mind that I was hoping to seek feedback on for its plausibility. Obviously, Draka is inherently implausible and I don't intend to turn the concept into a comparatively less interesting "bigger South Africa"; that would be relatively easy to achieve by having it include Zimbabwe, Botswana, Namibia, maybe southern Mozambique, and surrounding propped up puppet states such as in Katanga, Angola, Mozambique (or what remains). All of that I feel like is, if not plausible, at least not difficult to write an alternate history about using a PoD as late as the 20th century. No, this take on the Draka I intend to make more ambitious but not quite as absurd as Stirling's. In my mind, the end point of the Draka would have them rule over all of Africa in one degree or another, and this would not be accomplished until the second half of the 20th century.
But I am getting ahead of myself. Let me introduce the PoD and the early course of this timeline as I envision it.
Point of Divergence: In reality, more of a bundle of PoDs. If you think this is overly implausible, please say so. The first is that the Dutch and the English both set up their own colonies in the Cape or in South Africa in the first half of the 17th century, instead of the Dutch taking until 1652 and the English not bothering at all (at least, not until they became the British and took the Dutch colony during the French revolutionary wars). For the English, perhaps they decide to follow up on Andrew Shilling's claim of the area and settle it in the 1620s. Most likely these colonies are initially EIC and VOC run, but similarly to IOTL with the Dutch Cape Colony, they cease to become company colonies not too long after their establishment and instead are active settler colonies in order to solidify the mother country's hold on the area and to outcompete the other colony. I imagine that over the course of the 17th century, with the Anglo-Dutch Wars, fighting between the colonies occurs but neither manages to destroy or conquer the other. English instability with the Civil War makes it hard for the colony to know who to take orders from and what to do, and the Dutch have little interest in occupying a comparatively well settled colony so far away when they are dealing with their own wars with the Portuguese and the Spanish. So the two colonies fight but don't destroy each other, and both develop with significantly more support and settlement than the OTL Dutch Cape Colony received (but still nowhere near North American colonization efforts). As an aside, the Dutch hold onto Luanda instead of losing it in 1648, and so Portuguese Angola never forms.
The next major PoD is that William and Mary still take the throne in the Glorious Revolution, however they have children when they do so and as a result the House of Orange maintains its position on the throne and Stadtholder of the Dutch Republic. This is the more unlikely of the two major PoDs in my estimation, but I find it too enticing not to have. As a result of the continuation of this quasi "personal union" between the two countries, perhaps it degenerates into simply maintaining dynastic ties, relations between the English and the Dutch stay good for the next several decades. As a result, the two colonies in South Africa collaborate more closely to deal with local issues and threats, especially natives. They both expand, taking more land that is then offered to potential colonists and settlers in Europe, and thus the population grows faster and larger than IOTL. Using Excel and the North American British colonies as a rough, if not really proper, analogue, I have the European descended population of these two South African colonies reach around 120,000 by 1750, which is several times larger than the Dutch population was at the time. This is due to the increased efforts by the Dutch, the presence of the English colony and their efforts, and these compounding in the colony and area becoming increasingly developed and attractive to settlement. Obviously it would never compete with America, but I suspect it would definitely do substantially better than IOTL.
Anyways, from there on I have some faint ideas, but in truth the plausibility of these points is important to anything that follows as IOTL South Africa simply lacked the population to be anything other than a regional power at best. My goal with these PoDs is to allow for a substantially larger white population in the area, one that would hopefully reach over 1 million by 1850 and over 5 million by 1900. Any feedback or suggestions would be highly welcome!