Plausibility Check: WW2 starts in March 1939

Tocomocho

Yes, another WI inspired by the crappy Turtledove series.

So it's been written a lot lately that Britain and France sold Czechoslovakia at the Nuremberg Conference hoping to avoid war and that Hitler's occupation of rump Czechia in March 1939 was what convinced them to say "That and no more".

What I don't remember seeing asked is if they plainly said "No more" then, and issued an ultimatum to Hitler demanding that he left Bohemia-Moravia immediately and went back to the Munich borders? How likely is that and what would be needed? Could it be enough if a guarantee was issued to the rump Czechoslovakia in late 1938 as a payback for Munich?

If so, how would the course of the war had been altered, had it started 5 and a half months before? What would have been Poland's reaction? The USSR? Possible impact on the border wars with Japan?
 

Shaby

But Czechoslovakia appeared to disintegrate in plain sight. First reaction of British PM was "Look how wisely we did. The country has fallen apart of its own, and we were considering going to war a few months earlier." Only when it became apparent that break up was initiated by Germans rather than indigenous movement did British stood up and said "OK, no more."

Besides, in 1938 British (as prime movers behind Entente) considered themselves being inferior in air and didn't want to expose themselves to perceived German bombing attack on London, they thought themselves powerless to stop. At least they did not wont to do it for the sake of Czech. French took more pragmatic stand that Czechoslovakia was already doomed and there was little that could be done.
 

Tocomocho

I see where that reasoning could come from.

Maybe if the Germans move in before Slovakia proclaims independence instead of the other way around, then the picture could look different. Of course, this could require Hitler to make a move even more stupid than the already prone to stupid moves Hitler could do.
 

Shaby

Well, about the only thing that could be the POD for this is that Hacha (spelling?) stands firm and forces Germans to commit outright aggression. I am afraid this battle is lost in the start. Without firm assurance from somebody (Britain or France) he would never do that. Besides, they would be overrun very soon anyway. Admittedly it would make Germans aggressors and brutal, perhaps even cause sanctions and war ultimately, but Czech would end up being martyrs even more than they already were.
 

Paul V McNutt

Banned
Might Poland see the hand writing on the wall? Could French and British forces have been stationed there. I could see a prolonged Polish campaign convince the French and British to build up their tank forces.
 

Ash's Boomstick

One version of event I read up on years ago was during the Annexation of the Czechs that the German armed forces only had about six weeks of fuel and so if the Allies had told him to get stuffed and go home the Germans wouldn't have had a choice.
 
Cook

Cook

Banned
Britain and France did nothing about the occupation of Czechoslovakia for the same reason they did nothing when Germany occupied the entire coast of Lithuania five days later; because both the rump Czechoslovakia and Lithuania were too weak to make significant allies and Britain and France were too weak to challenge Germany alone. The guarantees were made to Poland, renewing the old Franco – Polish Alliance and establishing the Anglo – Polish Alliance not simply because Poland was threatened and ‘it was time to stop Herr Hitler’, but because Poland was threatened and had a very large army; one that in theory would force the Germans to fight on two fronts and be defeated.
 
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