Plausibility check: War Plan Orange-Red 1941

My understanding was that it was American pressure which led to the termination of the alliance in the early-mid 1920s.

Partly, though the main reason was the twist over influence in mainland China, which the UK wanted for trade from its colonies and Japan equally wished to make it its sphere of influence for its own economy, as Japan was at the time boosting rapidly in economical, industrial and military power. The British only had the alliance with the Japanese Emprie, due to Russia earlier in the century, as a mean to call a halt on Imperial Russia's advance into China as well, which was not lomger a real danger, after the fall of the Tsar and chaotic start of the USSR. Japan was more seen as an restless temperamentful child growing up, eager to fly out, rather than a good ally in British point of view.
 
Okay so the deal is this: I have a timeline centred around The Second Great War, roughly from 1942-1948 or 1940-1948. POD is in The Great War, which Germany won through Spring Offensive in 1918 and America never participated in. This led to decent German-American relations, maintained British-Japanese alliance, much worse British-American relations, and somewhat militarily weaker US. Pearl Harbour will happen, as OTL, though the time may change. America's buddy Germany is either in a war or at odds with fascist Novaroma pact, and Churchill (not in power but still important) is close with its leader Charles de Gaulle. Well, no doubt America will attack Japan, but would this give enough reason for them to enact War Plan Red and take on Canada, bringing Britain into the war?

And as a followup, does Canada stand a chance to hold USA off long enough for Commonwealth to support them? I find the IOTL Canadian plan of flanking American formations and attacking straight into big cities and then retreating to cause chaos and disrupt American strategy... intriguing.

As a second followup, if this is completely ASB territory, is there any other way to open up an American front?

Oh right, better try to elaborate more; what's the treaty that end the war? With a war ending with a more succesfull Spring Offensive in 1918, total war victory for Germany is not an option and frankly in any case there is no way that can enforce anything towards Great Britain.
The italian army at the time was fully refurbished, retrained and under a new commander and the same time the Austrian tried their 'Spring Offensive' failing it and basically destroying their army in the process, if the germans seem to be too succesfull Diaz will be pressed to launch an offensive agaisnt the Hapsburg and he had a good changes to succeed...even if it will be very costly; this will force the Germans to shift troops to support the austrians.
In any case both the A-H and Ottoman Empire are history at this stage...even if the Porte had at least a fighting change to retain the core turkish territory (plus north Iraq and influence in the caucasus) due to the massive loss in blood and treasure.

If the USA don't partecipate in the war, it will mean that they have first a much stronger socialist presence, more german influenced culture and a much much less developed military due to no lesson of the Great War aka when they try to invade Canada we can see them having a performance on par of the Red Army in the OTL Winter War.

Personally the French lose/stalemate war and become fascist with DeGaulle in charge, it's an overused cliche (same for Italy) expecially if there is not a succesfull communist revolution in Russia. Germany has more or less the same changes to become fascist due to the late war ending, the expense in pacify the eastern holding and the postwar political troubles.
 

hipper

Banned
I don't see how the American presence in the Pacific would change even if they never built tanks and raised troops for a war in Europe. Likewise Japan will still try to isolate China and take on Southeast Asia. If they believe that USA is still opposing those goals, they'll attack. And also, it's not like Imperial Japan was too rational.

Also, from the responses here I believe there's a decent chance for Canadians hold back long enough if Americans haven't mobilized in advance, but the first question remains open: Would USA attack Canada and declare war on Britain in these circumstances in the first place?

In OTL Japan was denied fuel oil by the British and the Americans due to their occupation of French Indo China
In this time line they will be able to get Fuel from the British and Dutch.

The main aim. Of the Japanese was the conquest of China, the only reason for an attack on America would be if they feared an attack from America, the terms of the Anglo Japanese agreement were such that Britain would only join a war if Japan was attacked.

Though a continuing Anglo Japanese alliance might cause some hostility between the US and the U.K.

Cheers hipper
 
Oh right, better try to elaborate more; what's the treaty that end the war? With a war ending with a more succesfull Spring Offensive in 1918, total war victory for Germany is not an option and frankly in any case there is no way that can enforce anything towards Great Britain.
The italian army at the time was fully refurbished, retrained and under a new commander and the same time the Austrian tried their 'Spring Offensive' failing it and basically destroying their army in the process, if the germans seem to be too succesfull Diaz will be pressed to launch an offensive agaisnt the Hapsburg and he had a good changes to succeed...even if it will be very costly; this will force the Germans to shift troops to support the austrians.

Basically Spring Offensive on German part is almost exactly as OTL, but French people are not waiting for the heroic Riders of Murican Rohan to sweep in and save the day. They know that there won't be a huge wave of reinforcements. Suddenly Michael offensive happens, and it is a huge shock, as OTL. Here the lower morale and supply as well as minor butterflies haven't changed much: Amiens remains British, though Arras is taken. German presence means that Amiens isn't a safe way to move troops, however. Georgette is already more successful, with Hazebrouck and the last chunk of Belgium taken, though Germans were stopped before the Channel Ports. Blücher-Yorck pushes to Marne and causes panic in French lines. Counteroffensives are largely unsuccessful and frontline stays at Marne. French politicians begin secretly discussing the possibility of peace talks. Gneisenau breaks France's back and a huge route brings the frontline only 50 km from Paris. Second Battle of Marne pushes all the way to Chalons and the French army fears a push to Verdun as Germans now threaten it on both flanks. The French army isn't able to mount large counteroffensives, with the bitter defeats and pyrrhic victories causing the morale to fall even lower. Peace talks begin, and France wishes for fair terms as Germans still aren't in a position to force their will on France. Finally, a push through French Flanders to the Channel ports (Hagen) and at the same time a push along Somme river isolate BEF. A month later BEF surrenders despite multiple attempts at either taking Amiens or the Channel back. This was the final straw for France, and they basically let Germans tell their terms. And France gains their own stab-in-the-back myth as the Germans never actually took or even threatened Paris or achieved breakthrough.

Germany didn't really demand much from Britain, who entered the peace talks on their own terms. They returned most German colonies and traded their possessions in Central Africa for Italian Somaliland and for Togoland (well, for the right to not to return Togoland), and forced South Africa to return Southwest to Germany, too. And that's it. Both knew Germany can't demand war reparations or anything bigger than that. As for Italy, Vittorio Veneto still happens but too late, as armistice on Western Front takes place 1. November. Austria hears about this just in time for no armistice in Italian Front. Italy continues the push but there's nothing they can do when the Germans start pouring in. Italy sues for peace once their offensive dies out and Austro-German counter offensive achieves breakthrough.
 
First, Germany can't pretend squat from the United Kingdom...they don't have any mean to demand back their colonies except asking pretty please, but is more probable that London will give them the middle finger and keep them all for all his troubles .
Second, Germany can't simply tell their term to the French...even in OTL they were on the last leg in term of supply, tired and with the blockade (that's still on) greatly affecting the civilian population aka there was famine, the objective of the Spring Offensive was not victory but a negotiated peace.
Third, if the italian launch their Vittorio Veneto offensive the Austrian army will basically cease of exist as a choesive force by the end of it (even if the Italians will suffer great losses) and this mean that Austria-Hungary is gone and frankly the Germans are not in the shape to help anybody as they are spent for Operation Micheal, the blockade is still active and the situation in the east need to be stabilizated, plus everybody see that A-H will last just days.
End of the days?
France and UK divide the German colonial empire among themselfs; Germany can choose between getting Congo or Belgium (not both), B-L will be recognized and A-H probably divided in various part, with Italy getting some bits (probably the part that already occupy) while the rest or is directely annexed to Germany or become a puppet nation. The Ottoman survive (barely) but loss part of Mesopotamia and Palestine but aquire other bits. Germany will probably demand to France just a demilitarizated zone and to formally give up any claim to A-L.

And this is by 1918 the best scenario for Germany (and the Ottoman); all side are too spent for continue the war unless they want to have the 'Russian experience', so reasonable term will be the rule of the day even if all side will not like it.
 
Even if ALL Austrian forces run away, Italians can't capture a nation before Germans swoop in to save their buddies. Also, the changed situation would probably mean that Austrian forces won't break totally, since they know that the relief force is coming. Will the Italians even attack when they see France surrendering and suing for a harsh peace? While Central Powers were not doing well, neither were the Entente. Now take away the American supplies and troops... France is done. They already had bad mutinies in 1917. If Germans are crushing BEF, in position to attack Paris and threatening Verdun, and French counterattacks haven't caused major breakthroughs, France is simply toasted. If they all were heroic Napoleonic Old Guard, maybe they would fight on, but Germany didn't fight to the end either. Neither did Russia. Neither did France a few decades earlier or later. OTL German advance was already shocking and could have meant peace without US troops coming in. ITTL French low morale and supplies mean almost double the gains. France is running low on manpower, morale, supplies, money, and allies. Who knows when Britain could send a new force? And BEF was the most effective force in the West, losing it is quite a deal. After France is surrendering, why would UK continue the war? Italy doesn't stand a chance either anymore, since they had bled themselves dry and were barely better off than Austria. France was pretty much the carrying force of Western Front, doing most of the dying and the only one to have large number of troops there through the war. When France falls, UK won't "fight on the beaches". Not this time. France would have probably accepted white peace much earlier, but Germany never wanted white peace. At the very least they want their colonies back and B-L recognized.
 
Peace? Very probably...Germany getting what you say? Not really.

First Italy as it's more or less my 'field'; sure if the Austrian know that a relief force is coming maybe (and i say maybe due to their supply situation) they will not break totally, but remain the fact that they will lose badly and frankly the relief force is not a give; basically once the offensive end and the italian form a defensive line...a breakthrough will be neither easy or cheap and this will be a very important factor for the Germans as Italy for them is an irrilevant front by now and is cheaper give them some bit of Austria-Hungary than continue the war
All the continued fight in France, the destruction of the BEF, etc. etc. they don't come cheap in term of men and material and by 1918 Germany had not much more to spare either and regarding France, sure in 1917 there were munity...but the problem was that the soldiers refused to continue new offensive not to stop defending the country.
Not counting that the rest of the CP allies are not in a very good shape...and i'm being optimistic here.

Sure Germany want their colonies back, BL recognized, Belgium etc. etc. etc....and for news i want to become emperor of the world, and by 1918 Germany had the same change of me to achieve what he want. Sure France is out, but also Germany is spent, the blockade still on...with famine running rampant in the motherland, Poland and Ukraine on the verge of rebellion, Austria-Hungary not looking very well and seem in need to other troops and supply to finally defeat the italians; basically they are in the same situation that you describe France.
The UK will continue the war, because by now has invested too much in the war and frankly with the loss of the BEF the only way to hurt Germany is by blockade (that don't cost that much...relatevely speanking) and giving a little support to Italy
In poor words, by this stage they can get a lot...but not everything they want and as i said they will need to decide what to toss away and what to keep.

The British giving back the colonies to Germany is difficult, even because many are in the end of the Dominions and this mean London forcing them to giving back; there is Congo and as i said Berlin can decide to have Belgium or get Congo not both. Hell, is much more probable that London will seize the german colonies in French possession if the peace is too harsh...and there is nothing that Berlin can do to stop them.
 
Peace? Very probably...Germany getting what you say? Not really.

First Italy as it's more or less my 'field'; sure if the Austrian know that a relief force is coming maybe (and i say maybe due to their supply situation) they will not break totally, but remain the fact that they will lose badly and frankly the relief force is not a give; basically once the offensive end and the italian form a defensive line...a breakthrough will be neither easy or cheap and this will be a very important factor for the Germans as Italy for them is an irrilevant front by now and is cheaper give them some bit of Austria-Hungary than continue the war
All the continued fight in France, the destruction of the BEF, etc. etc. they don't come cheap in term of men and material and by 1918 Germany had not much more to spare either and regarding France, sure in 1917 there were munity...but the problem was that the soldiers refused to continue new offensive not to stop defending the country.
Not counting that the rest of the CP allies are not in a very good shape...and i'm being optimistic here.

Sure Germany want their colonies back, BL recognized, Belgium etc. etc. etc....and for news i want to become emperor of the world, and by 1918 Germany had the same change of me to achieve what he want. Sure France is out, but also Germany is spent, the blockade still on...with famine running rampant in the motherland, Poland and Ukraine on the verge of rebellion, Austria-Hungary not looking very well and seem in need to other troops and supply to finally defeat the italians; basically they are in the same situation that you describe France.
The UK will continue the war, because by now has invested too much in the war and frankly with the loss of the BEF the only way to hurt Germany is by blockade (that don't cost that much...relatevely speanking) and giving a little support to Italy
In poor words, by this stage they can get a lot...but not everything they want and as i said they will need to decide what to toss away and what to keep.

The British giving back the colonies to Germany is difficult, even because many are in the end of the Dominions and this mean London forcing them to giving back; there is Congo and as i said Berlin can decide to have Belgium or get Congo not both. Hell, is much more probable that London will seize the german colonies in French possession if the peace is too harsh...and there is nothing that Berlin can do to stop them.

The plausibility of the initial scenario isn't even the topic here, but the plausibility of USA declaring war on both Japan and UK after Pearl Harbor, given that Anglo-Japanese alliance stands strong and American-British relations aren't too good. But let's go anyways:

The players of the Great War in start of 1918:

Entente:
-Russia: rekt
-Italy: has lost way too many troops, though army is adapting. This far has lost bitterly, though OTL managed to defend Piave and mount a large attack to crack Austrian lines later on. Marginally weaker than OTL but really
-France: has suffered heavy casualties but is still standing, OTL homefront was looking pretty bad before US aid came in, with that out France is running out of money, food and morale. Civilian protests occurred IRL both in 1917 and around Spring Offensive. Now it will all be one continuous time of troubles. Home front is something that lost Russia and Central Powers the war IRL, though CP defeat would have come anyway. Point is, it is not to be underestimated.
-Britain: has lost much more than they wanted to but relatively intact by comparison, practically unlimited manpower, but OTL was depending on US supplies and loans for the final year of the war. Here they have much less those -> weaker home front, though not to the same extent as French home front
-Belgium: On British life support, basically not much more than an army
-Serbia: same as Belgium
-Greece: Doing pretty well, though can't harm any of the main three Central Powers. OTL helped to crack Bulgaria later on

Central Powers:
-Ottomans: rekt almost to the same extent as Russia, though still pinning down some Entente troops. Empire might or might not be salvageable after the war, but they won't contribute to the victory at this point. They have no way of helping Western Front.
-Austria-Hungary: incompetent and suffered much, like Italy and Russia, but so far still standing. Homefront vulnerable, but all they have to do is to not lose before the French.
-Germany: the blockade hurts them, but morale is suddenly high and there is hope of victory with Russia falling. Homefront maybe not quite as stable as Britain's but still one of the best here. Didn't surrender OTL until all of their allies had crumbled down
-Bulgaria: doing okay-ish, though morale low and economy in shambles. Military-wise there's a stalemate which looks stable for now

1918 will be simply a German storm. Spring Offensive starts as OTL but lower Entente morale leads to Germans gaining a lot of more ground. With the front line close and a lack of manpower, French military command becomes increasingly concerned, and counter offensives fail to push the Germans back decisively. French army does not like getting thrown at German guns for little gain, just like in 1917. Fourth operation of Spring Offensive brings Germans quite near Paris, and civilian panic ensues. Even OTL there were talks about leaving Paris. Second last part brings French troops concentrated around Verdun (which is now a French salient) and Paris, while the last push isolates and finally breaks both BEF and Belgian Army in August. If even this isn't enough, now Germany has nearly free hands in France since they outnumber the French and have now removed their allies. Germans probably COULD take Paris, head-on, though it would be extremely costly. However, simply achieving breakthrough is enough for victory, and as French numbers and morale fall, it becomes a real possibility. As a third option, which is maybe the safest, is continuing to push from both sides of Paris and just have a huge siege for the old times sake. They will run out of food and then France is completely done. Bonus points if they can't leave the capital before they get surrounded. However I firmly believe that the surrender of BEF is more than enough for France to just quit. Would Britain continue after France is out? Just maybe, but not after both France and Italy are out. If Austria holds longer than France, Italy can't do shit once the Germans get there in large numbers. If Austria wasn't completely broken, and Italy still had will to fight, Germans will sooner or later break the line and force a peace.

So can the war be won before France surrenders? Both Italian and Macedonian fronts look promising, but Macedonian front can't achieve anything major and maybe won't even be won if France and UK pull back once France is getting fucked hard. If they win, it's still just Bulgaria. (though OTL it was the final straw that prompted Ottoman surrender) However, if Italian Front AND Macedonian fronts are won, there is still a (small) chance for Centrals to break and UK to stay in war. Thing is, the timeline starts with Centrals winning, so I can't allow that to happen. If necessary for the timeline to work out, I'll just make either Piave work or Vittorio Veneto not work with magical butterflies. For instance, the success of Germany in the West and the faltering French morale pressure Italy to attack too early, and it goes about as well as Piave did for Austrians. Even if they fuck up completely and Italians are running towards Vienna, will they surrender before the French? It would certainly be interesting to see Belgium, France, Austria-Hungary and Bulgaria all fall around the same time, leaving only Ottomans and Germans versus Brits and Greeks, but I believe that Britain would fight on in that case.

So basically the options here are:

A: My original plan, Germans focus on naval action with British Navy trying to harm the blockade, which doesn't need to do anything but to keep USA out. Spring Offensive starts as OTL, weaker French and British morale ends up with France surrendering after BEF breaks. Italian Front doesn't matter, it's just too late and total breakthrough never occurs, just retreat. Italy surrenders, knowing it is fucked, as does Greece. Britain sues for peace.

B: Same as above, but France holds on a bit more. Italian Front becomes relevant in a race to break one major nation, but disaster is averted, Austria defends, though barely, and Germany takes Paris or breaks the French totally in winter 1918.
Britain might send some help to Italy before France falls, after Italy is broken they again sue for peace. Now there is enough time for Bulgaria to break, probably, but Ottomans won't surrender as they still believe in Germans.

C: As original, but Italy attacks way too early because of pressure in France. A disaster happens, prompting the Austrians for a final attack, this time extremely successful. Basically reverse Piave and Vittorio. Italy breaks before France, A-H survives and actually sends help to other fronts. French surrender with Italy and BEF falling, Austrians save Bulgaria. Britain definitely sues for peace.

D: Piave works out for the Austrians, even earlier Austrian victory. Italian rout and a nice breakthrough for Austrians who finally feel like they aren't completely useless. Austrians save Bulgaria again, France goes down soon enough and Britain sues for peace.

E: Piave works out, but France really doesn't want to surrender. British try to land a second force in Bretagne, but it is too late and too small. Continued German attacks surround Paris and Verdun, and threatening Vosges and the coastline, and French army is broken whilst trying to relieve Paris. Germans are really running low on manpower but Austria attacks through Italian territory (something Italy agreed to) and sends troops to the eastern pincer around Paris. Germans clash with small parts of the French army and the new British force for a few weeks until finally a white flag is raised at Paris.

While there are many ways of making Entente win without America, they do not apply here. Entente lost, that's the point. Now what happens to Japan, USA and Britain?
 
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