Plausibility Check: USSR and Weimar Germany partition Poland in 1920

Deleted member 94680

Wouldn’t the smarter move for Weimar be to offer to go to War with the Soviets to liberate Poland in exchange for revisions to Versailles rather than throw in their lot with an aggressive pariah the Entente were low-key fighting themselves?
 
Well, yes. But I don't know you get a Soviet-German alliance without it in 1920, either as a revived uprising sparked by Soviet advances and support, or by going back and changing the 1919-1920 part. The fact that it's a real longshot in any version is why I'm skeptical of the premise here.

It all really pushes the question forward: Who in Germany is accepting this alliance, and who's in charge of the military endeavors? It doesn't seem at all like Ebert, so maybe we need the Kapp Putsch to be successful, resulting in a rapidly re-militarizing German state that's ready to start reconquering territory? That's going to be a tough sell as a Soviet ally or as a Western one.

If you need Soviet backing to do any of this, I'm not sure why you don't just have a Soviet advance all the way through Poland, and if you don't, I don't know how it's at all possible. The Allies aren't worried about alienating Germany in this context - they're still celebrating their recent humiliation of the Kaiser, they're not going to pull any punches with whatever successor seems to be going full-bore militarist while simultaneously cozying up to the USSR.

Maybe you do it without Weimar at all, as some kind of Freikorps-controlled pseudostate in German areas of Poland, or centered on an East Prussian state that refuses any relationship with Berlin? Some kind of surviving German-dominated Courland state with Soviet backing?

It doesn't need to be a formal alliance. A Ribbentrop-Molotov pact 19 years earlier would be enough. Just a discrete agreement delimitating spheres of influence along the 1914 German border with the statement that occupation of territory beyond that line by either side would be temporary would be enough.
Wouldn’t the smarter move for Weimar be to offer to go to War with the Soviets to liberate Poland in exchange for revisions to Versailles rather than throw in their lot with an aggressive pariah the Entente were low-key fighting themselves?
(EDIT)
It would have been smarter to prop Poland up, but the Weimar Republic would have found it psychologically difficult. Judging by the limtied assistance which Poland received in OTL it would be doubtful if Britain and France would oppose Germany too hard if it decided to intervene after the fall of Warsaw.
 
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Parts of the Soviet leadership (Trotsky and the Red Army), and German politicians and the Reichswehr leadership did in OTL propose restoration of the 1914 eastern German border with a Red Poland in the event of Soviet victory.

Western workers in Germany and Britain took an anti-Polish stance in the Soviet-Polish war. French workers may have as well. Can the French really afford to mobilize an army to march across Germany over such a trifling matter as basically German militias picking up scraps of ex 1914 eastern German territory, off of a dead anti-communist Polish state?
Especially when French centrists and conservatives have concerns about domestic worker disturbances, and propaganda among the French left probably claims that the ulterior motive of any French military expedition isn't crush German militarism, nowhere in evidence in France or its borders at the moment, but instead for domestic repression, crushing German workers and then the Soviet Union?

The British really recoiled from post-WWI military entanglements. Are the French going to be much different, especially over scraps of a Polish carcass, when that's not even to collect money for France?

I don't know if they'd need to mobilize; they hadn't really finished demobilizing yet - the Allies were occupying the Rhineland, after all, and they may not need to bring any additional soldiers in at all (and the French and British may continue to use colonial soldiers). Allied involvement in the Russian Civil War is still drawing down; a Soviet conquest of Poland would be an easy excuse to ramp it back up.

Plus, I don't think it's true that Britain and France withdrew from military engagements after WWI: they were both fighting in Turkey, there were advisors in Poland as it is, and plenty of other engagements.

I'm not proposing a march to Moscow here or anything, but a limited involvement to ensure a Polish victory (which they had OTL) and redouble the punishment of Germany.
 

raharris1973

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@Mikey:

Say we accept your position, and say that with the Weimar regime, and without guarantee'ing an instant French invasion, Germany cannot move a muscle in 1920 scavenge any Polish territory. So this cannot happen:

A far more likely result is that Germany takes back Posen, keeps Silesia, and takes back Danzig, all under the guise of forming a bulwark against communism, which the Allies would probably have to accept given the situation.

But, the Soviets have taken Warsaw and completely defeated the Poles and have the freedom to operate throughout Polish territory.

How will this end? Will the Soviets set up a Communist Polish Republic in all of Poland west of the Curzon Line, and keep a tense, or cordial, border peace with the Weimar Republic? Or, since they are out west like this, will the Soviets cross the German border, either trying to keep going west for Berlin, Silesia, and Saxony to spark a revolution, no matter how slim the chances? Or just at least turning north to occupy Danzig and East Prussia to secure their Baltic flank security?
 
But, the Soviets have taken Warsaw and completely defeated the Poles and have the freedom to operate throughout Polish territory.
They've defeated Polish forces in the East, yes, but those in Western Poland will continue fighting.
Poland will not surrender, they'll just keeping fighting like they did after 1939.

How will this end? Will the Soviets set up a Communist Polish Republic in all of Poland west of the Curzon Line, and keep a tense, or cordial, border peace with the Weimar Republic?
Treaty of Rapallo shows that both the Germans and Soviets were willing to cooperate given that said cooperation benefits both of them.
Hitler and Stalin were able to partition Poland so I don't see why the Soviets and Weimar can't do the same.

Or, since they are out west like this, will the Soviets cross the German border, either trying to keep going west for Berlin, Silesia, and Saxony to spark a revolution, no matter how slim the chances?
They do that and the full force of the Entente will destroy them.
There were already Allied expeditions sent to Russia to suppress the Soviets, though the Whites fell too quickly for the expeditionary forces to react.
They invade Germany and their fate is sealed.
USSR is going to hell in a handbasket.

Or just at least turning north to occupy Danzig and East Prussia to secure their Baltic flank security?
Same effect as previous.
USSR goes to hell in a handbasket.
 
But, the Soviets have taken Warsaw and completely defeated the Poles and have the freedom to operate throughout Polish territory.
It's unlikely that all organized Polish resistance instantly collapses after the Fall of Warsaw, but rather a gradual disintegration that would require continual Soviet efforts to capture cities like Kraków, Poznań, and Lwow. I'd imagine that in this period between Soviets consolidating their overstretched front and the last general offensive west, the German armies might go ahead and launch incursions into Polish territory in coordination with military attachés already embedded with the Red Army.

How will this end? Will the Soviets set up a Communist Polish Republic in all of Poland west of the Curzon Line, and keep a tense, or cordial, border peace with the Weimar Republic? Or, since they are out west like this, will the Soviets cross the German border, either trying to keep going west for Berlin, Silesia, and Saxony to spark a revolution, no matter how slim the chances? Or just at least turning north to occupy Danzig and East Prussia to secure their Baltic flank security?
I would imagine, going by debates rumbling within the Politburo about the status of Poland after the "success of the exported revolution", that the USSR would annex territories east of "Curzon Line A" into the existing SSRs and set up a Polish Soviet Republic based in Warsaw to govern the rest of the occupied territory. I'd imagine a cordial peace with the Weimar Republic is likely - it might be uncomfortable for both powers but their interests were fundamentally aligned for the time being and the Red Army would have to be utterly insane to cross the German border. Especially given the existing contacts and cooperation between the Reichswehr and the Red Army during the summer of 1920 in preparation for the potential carving up of Poland. The Soviets are not going to attack Weimar Germany at this time.
 
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If Poland is on the verge of being conquered by the Soviets, then I have no doubt that German forces would occupy the corridor, Posen and Upper Silesia. If not by the Reichswehr itself, then certainly by Freikorps, with silent acquiescence of the German government. They would probably claim that it’s necessary to protect their eastern flank from the Bolsheviks (and it would be true in some ways), which France or Britain would find difficult to argue against. I mean, what would be the alternative? Whether the Germans occupy their pre 1914 territories in the east or not, the young, independent nation of Poland would cease to exist anyway. Unless France and Britain allow Germany to rearm to liberate Poland (which I very much doubt), the facts on the ground in Poland aren’t going to change anytime soon. If anything, many of the Poles living in formerly German territories would probably prefer to be under German jurisdiction again, then to be occupied by the Bolsheviks.

The question is, what happens afterward? With Poland conquered, where do the Soviets go next? Unless they decide to actually invade Germany, their most likely (and easiest) targets would probably be the Baltic states, which would be kind of a thorn in their side now that they’ve taken Poland. But would the western powers allow that? Or would they try to intervene?
 

raharris1973

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But guys, @Mikey doesn't like it. @Mikey doesn't think the Entente powers will accept Germany expanding an inch beyond its Versailles authorized boundaries this soon after WWI, and if Weimar tries, the French army will roll from Rhineland to Berlin in a week. Maybe the Entente would let rogue Freikorps mess around the corridor, but they would be on their own, with the Soviet & Polish Reds free to have a go at them.

-that aside:

So - consensus is, the Soviets at this point would respect *all* Weimar Germany boundaries, including East Prussia, do avoid over-extension, provocation, and unnecessary diplomatic isolation. I suppose they would leave the Danzig Free City inviolate for the same reason to not offend either Weimar or the League Council?
 
But guys, @Mikey doesn't like it. @Mikey doesn't think the Entente powers will accept Germany expanding an inch beyond its Versailles authorized boundaries this soon after WWI, and if Weimar tries, the French army will roll from Rhineland to Berlin in a week. Maybe the Entente would let rogue Freikorps mess around the corridor, but they would be on their own, with the Soviet & Polish Reds free to have a go at them.

-that aside:

So - consensus is, the Soviets at this point would respect *all* Weimar Germany boundaries, including East Prussia, do avoid over-extension, provocation, and unnecessary diplomatic isolation. I suppose they would leave the Danzig Free City inviolate for the same reason to not offend either Weimar or the League Council?

do the Soviets have the means to keep pushing after Warsaw anyways??I was under the impression the red army was at its logistical limitts, even with Germany weak, could they realistically move against them
 

raharris1973

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do the Soviets have the means to keep pushing after Warsaw anyways??I was under the impression the red army was at its logistical limitts, even with Germany weak, could they realistically move against them

March on west to Berlin from Warsaw? No way. Finish mopping up all the rest of remaining Polish territory? Sure if given a few weeks and months. Grab the relatively low population exclaves of Danzig and East Prussia? Probably militarily possible given some weeks/months, and no Entente intervention or levee en masse from metropolitan Germany.
 
One thing to keep in mind is that a Soviet victory complicates things in the Baltic. On one hand the Lithuanians and Latvians were aiding the Soviets against Poland and on the other hand they were wary of being reintegrated into the USSR. The ussr would also find this a conundrum. They would not be able to be seen betraying allies in the first years of their country. I think Estonia would be annexed but the Latvians and Lithuanians would be allowed to stay as virtual economic puppets of the USSR but still politically independent, like many Soviet politicians wanted at the time.
 

raharris1973

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One thing to keep in mind is that a Soviet victory complicates things in the Baltic. On one hand the Lithuanians and Latvians were aiding the Soviets against Poland and on the other hand they were wary of being reintegrated into the USSR. The ussr would also find this a conundrum. They would not be able to be seen betraying allies in the first years of their country. I think Estonia would be annexed but the Latvians and Lithuanians would be allowed to stay as virtual economic puppets of the USSR but still politically independent, like many Soviet politicians wanted at the time.

I could get why the Lithuanians would side with the Soviets for the purposes of avoiding annexation by Poland and in hopes of gaining Vilnius, but why were the Latvians on the Soviet side?
 
I could get why the Lithuanians would side with the Soviets for the purposes of avoiding annexation by Poland and in hopes of gaining Vilnius, but why were the Latvians on the Soviet side?
Latvians allowed Soviet troops to pass through Latvian soil under supervision of Latvian troops.

EDIT: It seems that Latvians played both sides in the war. Like the Battle of Daugavpils where they aided the poles. and during the Latvian War of Independence
 
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But guys, @Mikey doesn't like it. @Mikey doesn't think the Entente powers will accept Germany expanding an inch beyond its Versailles authorized boundaries this soon after WWI, and if Weimar tries, the French army will roll from Rhineland to Berlin in a week. Maybe the Entente would let rogue Freikorps mess around the corridor, but they would be on their own, with the Soviet & Polish Reds free to have a go at them.

-that aside:

So - consensus is, the Soviets at this point would respect *all* Weimar Germany boundaries, including East Prussia, do avoid over-extension, provocation, and unnecessary diplomatic isolation. I suppose they would leave the Danzig Free City inviolate for the same reason to not offend either Weimar or the League Council?
You know better than to do this sort of BS.

Kicked for a week.
 
Many in the Soviet politburo were in favour of partition and securing an alliance with the German Republic at this point, specifically Trotsky, and they were already sending out feelers for diplomatic overtures. In addition the Weimar Republic never accepted the loss of it's Eastern Territories and regaining them would give their legitimacy a significant boost, as well as the fact that opening relations with the Soviets would give them a potential ally against the Entente and the Versailles settlement. Both would have an interest in pursuing this policy out of realpolitik regardless of their opinions of one another.
 
Assuming that Posen, the corridor and Silesia are secured, if not from direct intervention by Germany then through indirect Friekorps, and an alliance of sorts is established between Weimar Germany and the USSR, does this butterfly away fascism? Does it make it more likely for a figure like Wilhelm Marx to be elected over Hindenburg in 1925? Would there still be a second world war?
 
Assuming that Posen, the corridor and Silesia are secured, if not from direct intervention by Germany then through indirect Friekorps, and an alliance of sorts is established between Weimar Germany and the USSR, does this butterfly away fascism? Does it make it more likely for a figure like Wilhelm Marx to be elected over Hindenburg in 1925? Would there still be a second world war?
With all of Germany's main territorial losses recovered, the Drang nach Osten agitators have less fuel.
WW2 will still break out, though it's more likely that an expansionist USSR invades a right wing (but not Nazi) Germany.
 
With all of Germany's main territorial losses recovered, the Drang nach Osten agitators have less fuel.
WW2 will still break out, though it's more likely that an expansionist USSR invades a right wing (but not Nazi) Germany.
Or alternatively a left-leaning Weimar Germany allies with the Soviets and goes to war with France, Italy and various other countries in Europe.
 
If Poland falls, Baltic states would be next. It does not need to be open invasion of Red Army. Soviets may send divisions of Latvian or Lithuanian communists (or at least people claiming to be Latvians and Lithuanians) who'd "liberate" their nations from capitalist yoke and then would ask to be allowed to join USSR.
 
If Poland falls, Baltic states would be next. It does not need to be open invasion of Red Army. Soviets may send divisions of Latvian or Lithuanian communists (or at least people claiming to be Latvians and Lithuanians) who'd "liberate" their nations from capitalist yoke and then would ask to be allowed to join USSR.
Not exactly.
Soviet-Polish relations, 1917-1921
Book by Piotr S. Wandycz
In the book, Kamenev was given orders to 'preserve the borders of Lithuania and Latvia to their fullest' even if the Soviets won. Estonia seems to be fair game though. Honestly this belief that the Soviets would do this and that if they're slightly more successful seems to stem from a neo-red scare. Estonia seems to have been the only Baltic state under the hitlist if the Soviets won in Poland. Specific orders came to honour the boundaries of Lithuania and Latvia.
 
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