Plausibility check: Turn away if you hate dreaded s-words

How possible is Sealion if the Eastern Front was more stablised (ie German victory at Stalingrad) and if the Brits lost El Alamin and Suez?
 
How possible is Sealion if the Eastern Front was more stablised (ie German victory at Stalingrad) and if the Brits lost El Alamin and Suez?

Still no chance. You need to get rid of both the RN and the RAF or there's just no way.
 
The original Sealion was supposed to happen in 1940, before North Africa or Barbarossa.

If, by some chance Germany secures NA and the Med and takes out Russia and spends a year preparing correctly and the US stays out, then a 1945 reprise of Sealion is a possibility.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
The original Sealion was supposed to happen in 1940, before North Africa or Barbarossa.

If, by some chance Germany secures NA and the Med and takes out Russia and spends a year preparing correctly and the US stays out, then a 1945 reprise of Sealion is a possibility.

Still damned near impossible (MAYBE a 1% chance of success). You literally have to replicate the mid 1944 conditions the Allies had achieved over the Channel. Naval supremacy (E-boats getting lucky against a practice aside), Air supremacy (I believe the Luftwaffe got a total of 20-30 sorties up on D-day, most of which were shot down or driven off), and enough landing craft and bombardment ships to land on at least a twenty mile frontage.

You also have the not insignificant problem that it would be the first sizable amphibious evolution for the Wehrmacht (Kriegsmarine AND Heer) against a well defended objective. Amphibious operations are a learned art, as American (and to a lesser degree, Commonwealth) operations indicate. If one compares the USMC operations at Tarawa with those at Iwo Jima or Okinawa, or the Allied effort at Normandy, the differences are stunning. Had the Allies used the tactics from Galvanic or Torch on D-Day, they would have been repulsed (this is the ONE positive from the Med campaign, the Allies did learn from each screw-up).
 
How possible is Sealion if the Eastern Front was more stablised (ie German victory at Stalingrad) and if the Brits lost El Alamin and Suez?
By a strict definition that wouldn't be Seelowe;)

Using Seelowe more genrally as 'invasion of the UK'... It isn't going to help much if at all. The poms still have massive naval suppiriority. The RAF is significantly larger than round one... and the Luftwaffe will not be able to bring anywhere near it's full strength to the party.

Never mind that it's sufficiently late that you'll probably see US involvement before the krauts have the chance to land.
 
Top