Plausibility check: Ted Kennedy v. Reagan, 1980

I consider it possible for Ted to primary Carter, but only if he runs on something other than his last name and has a decent organization. Let's say this succeeds, and he names Lloyd Bentsen as his running mate. Could Kennedy defeat Reagan in November, and could he win again in 1984? Butterflies?
 
The Democrats may get a boost in the polls, but I don't think Teddy can beat Reagan in 1980 because 1980 was a Republican year through and through. If Ford wins in '76, though, '80 is Teddy's for the taking. But with an unpopular President bitter over the result of the primary, I don't think Teddy is going to be able to unite Democrats in facing down Reagan.

Also, with a strident conservative facing down a strident liberal, John Anderson is going to do better than IOTL. Maybe in a Perot-style fashion, he does well enough to put Teddy in the White House?
 
Doable, but not good odds. A strong run by a Kennedy is hard to discount, but Teddy probably needs a bit of luck to pull of 1980.
 
I think Kennedy could win more electoral votes than Carter in 1980, certainly. Carter narrowly lost Massachusetts and New York. I think Kennedy would have carried them and held the other Carter states except Georgia.

The overall popular vote loss would have been similar, IMO. Poor old Carter lost several states by narrow margins, which drove his electoral vote total to a miserable 49. Most of these states were in the South. Kennedy would have lost them by greater margins, which would have erased any gains he won in the Northeast.
 
John Anderson endorses Kenneddy that helps a small bit. I agree that Kennedy carries New York and Massachusettss but there are hard feelings in the Democratic party and he loses moderate and the still present conservative Democrats.
 
John Anderson endorses Kenneddy that helps a small bit. I agree that Kennedy carries New York and Massachusettss but there are hard feelings in the Democratic party and he loses moderate and the still present conservative Democrats.


If Anderson endorses Kennedy that might swing a couple more states his way (I'm thinking Vermont and Wisconsin).
 
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