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Now, like a lot of folks here I love Teddy Roosevelt and think he was one of our nations greatest presidents. However I've read many a time line where Teddy wins a 3rd term in 1912, or is somehow else President when WWI breaks out (earlier war, 4 consecutive term, T.R. elected later) and Roosevelt without fail intervenes in the conflict.

They're entertaining to read, but is that as inevitable as everyone seems to think? Sticking as close to OTL as possible and presuming a successful run for a 3rd term in 1912, I would think there is a good chance that T.R. will be otherwise occupied during WWI. I'm speaking of course of the Mexican Civil War. I really can't see Roosevelt sitting idly by while Mexico descends into Civil War and anarchy, let alone tolerate cross border violence. I think there would be significant intervention in Mexico, far exceeding anything Wilson attempted.

Given the state of the US army it would be a rather messy affair, but Mexico's in such bad shape it won't really matter. The army would be plagued by guerrillas, something many officers would have experienced in the Philippines, but they won't be able to treat the population as harshly. It would be an odd cross of imperialism and primitive nation building. It's likely that some of North-west Mexico would be annexed. Elsewhere pacifying the country and helping reestablish law, order and constitutional government would be an expensive and relatively drawn out process.

Combine this with dealing with a recalcitrant congress (the Republicans aren't likely to let by gones be by gones) and I think Roosevelt will have quite a difficult time getting the American people to buy into another foreign adventure. What are your thoughts on this?
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