Plausibility check: T.R. wins third term but doesn't intervene in WWI

Now, like a lot of folks here I love Teddy Roosevelt and think he was one of our nations greatest presidents. However I've read many a time line where Teddy wins a 3rd term in 1912, or is somehow else President when WWI breaks out (earlier war, 4 consecutive term, T.R. elected later) and Roosevelt without fail intervenes in the conflict.

They're entertaining to read, but is that as inevitable as everyone seems to think? Sticking as close to OTL as possible and presuming a successful run for a 3rd term in 1912, I would think there is a good chance that T.R. will be otherwise occupied during WWI. I'm speaking of course of the Mexican Civil War. I really can't see Roosevelt sitting idly by while Mexico descends into Civil War and anarchy, let alone tolerate cross border violence. I think there would be significant intervention in Mexico, far exceeding anything Wilson attempted.

Given the state of the US army it would be a rather messy affair, but Mexico's in such bad shape it won't really matter. The army would be plagued by guerrillas, something many officers would have experienced in the Philippines, but they won't be able to treat the population as harshly. It would be an odd cross of imperialism and primitive nation building. It's likely that some of North-west Mexico would be annexed. Elsewhere pacifying the country and helping reestablish law, order and constitutional government would be an expensive and relatively drawn out process.

Combine this with dealing with a recalcitrant congress (the Republicans aren't likely to let by gones be by gones) and I think Roosevelt will have quite a difficult time getting the American people to buy into another foreign adventure. What are your thoughts on this?
 
Last edited:

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
None, TR would intervene in Europe in 1914 or early 1915. Yes, I think that crazy loon would intervene in Mexico too, but he wasn't the kind of man who would risk German domination in Europe.
 
Even if he was crazy, and he wasn't, he'd still have to get congress to go along with him while the army is hip deep in Mexico. You totally ignore the domestic political situation
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Well Wilson was able to get the Pershing expedition after Pancjo Villa raided on the US side of the border (disastrous expedition since it ended in fighting with Carranza's troops and almost war with Mexico). I know, I know, if US is already involved in Europe would Congress ever let poor Teddy play in Mexico too. On the other hand, if the US is involved in the European war, and Villa raid on the US side of the border, the war spirit might cause some kind of patriotic outburst that allow Teddy to send troops into Mexico (but just like the Pershing expedition they might screw up and start fighting with the wrong generals).
 

boredatwork

Banned
None, TR would intervene in Europe in 1914 or early 1915. Yes, I think that crazy loon would intervene in Mexico too, but he wasn't the kind of man who would risk German domination in Europe.

I'm hard to put to understand why an American president (pre WW1) would worry which of the powers in Europe had relative pre-eminence. We were still convinced that nothing could touch us across the oceans, and given our not-quite commercial/naval rivalry with a certain sceptered isle, might well have welcomed seeing them taken down a peg or two (but not much more than that).

Certainly no prime minister of the Imperio Rosado could have accepted a single dominant continental power - but then, the USA & the global blob of victorian pinkitude were in very different positions vis-a-vis continental Europe, with rather different interests at stake.
 
Teddy was always a believer in American intervention in world affairs, so I don't see any reason why he wouldn't intervene earlier than even Wilson did. He probably forges some sort of agreement with Britain and France (He's not going to agonize over the fact that Russia is much more undemocratic than Germany, as Wilson did) prior to the outbreak of the war, and thus, draws American troops into the war in 1914.

Of course, this means that Teddy is going to have to lay a lot of groundwork at home to convince isolationist Republicans, interventionist Democrats, and a mix-match of isolationist and interventionist Progressives to sign on for the war.
 
I'm hard to put to understand why an American president (pre WW1) would worry which of the powers in Europe had relative pre-eminence. We were still convinced that nothing could touch us across the oceans, and given our not-quite commercial/naval rivalry with a certain sceptered isle, might well have welcomed seeing them taken down a peg or two (but not much more than that).

Certainly no prime minister of the Imperio Rosado could have accepted a single dominant continental power - but then, the USA & the global blob of victorian pinkitude were in very different positions vis-a-vis continental Europe, with rather different interests at stake.
That's not to mention that even if the President did start to care, Congress and the American populace wouldn't. A lot of people responding seem to be under the impression that Roosevelt, upon being elected, would reign over the US as some sort of absolute dictator who has zero accountability to anyone rather than having to do things like get congress to declare war and worry about the fact that there is no popular support for war in 1914.
 

boredatwork

Banned
That's not to mention that even if the President did start to care, Congress and the American populace wouldn't. A lot of people responding seem to be under the impression that Roosevelt, upon being elected, would reign over the US as some sort of absolute dictator who has zero accountability to anyone rather than having to do things like get congress to declare war and worry about the fact that there is no popular support for war in 1914.


This, very much this.

Remember - this is a pre-FDR president, elected at a time period when Congress was at a relative apex of influence & prominence. He's not going to be able to just bully them into getting what he wants, pulpit or no.
 
we seem to be forgetting the Zimmerman telegram... WW1 is not my strength but a 3rd term Teddy would have been a squeaker election and as such as the previous posters have said he would have been hard pressed to convince Congress to go along with him on Europe, Mexico I don't think so. He was a wiley enough politician to see the advantages in Zimmerman though. He would/could have used it to stir up popular support for the war in Europe and used it to esclate any sort of Mexican conflict that would have arisen. I think if you are looking for a general to go into Mexico, you would get Nelson Miles (I believe he is still alive) he knows the area (he captured Geronimo) and would know how to live off the desert and in my opinion a better commander than Pershing

As a sidebar: was there any sort of Lend-Lease or straight arms sales by Wilson? I can see Teddy doing this to the max or at the very least getting us onto a war footing much more so than Wilson did, if I remember correctly Wilson was rather slow on bring America around to war am I correct?
 
Well Wilson was able to get the Pershing expedition after Pancjo Villa raided on the US side of the border (disastrous expedition since it ended in fighting with Carranza's troops and almost war with Mexico). I know, I know, if US is already involved in Europe would Congress ever let poor Teddy play in Mexico too. On the other hand, if the US is involved in the European war, and Villa raid on the US side of the border, the war spirit might cause some kind of patriotic outburst that allow Teddy to send troops into Mexico (but just like the Pershing expedition they might screw up and start fighting with the wrong generals).

Well, I believe that Teddy would have intervened in Mexico well before the Villa raid happens, likely in the first year of his new term before the war in Europe has started. That would have used up much of his political capital, and I don't think congress would have been eager for another war while the Army is battling guerrillas on the other side of the Rio Grande.
 
I could easily see TR doing what FDR did in World War II, escorting Allied Convoys with the US Navy, aggressively patrolling the Atlantic trying to provoke a U-boat attack to get the US into the war, all while supplying the allied side unofficially.
 
Top