Plausibility Check: Surviving Napoleonic Europe Scenario

I'm thinking of restarting my Louisiana TL (since some posters have expressed interest in it lately), and I was wondering what direction to take events in Europe when this little scenario hit me.

Basically, Napoleon dies right before his planned invasion of Russia, and a group of his marshals form a regency for Napoleon II (who, IIRC, would be one at the time). Napoleon's army still has its reputation intact, and the marshals agree to make a number of concessions (abolition of the Continental System, restoration of the Spanish Bourbons, restoration of the House of Orange or at least some form of independent Netherlands, giving France's Illyrian departments back to Austria) in exchange for peace with Britain and continued support from Prussia and Austria. I think this is doable-Napoleon's heir would have Hapsburg blood, so the Austrians would have a vested interest in coming to a deal, Napoleon and Russia had been allies until recently, Prussia alone could be easily daunted and made to accept some of its provinces back, Britain could learn to live with a Bonapartist France, especially if nobody on the continent other than maybe Prussia was willing to help them get rid of it.

So, does this sound like something that could work, or have I entered ASB land?

EDIT: I'm wondering if killing Napoleon in say, 1807 wouldn't be a better idea
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
Napoleon's death means that Marie Louise becomes regent, though the marshals will have massive influence. I could also see Savary and Fouché trying to become the éminence grise, but the marshals may take "measures" to ensure that that doesn't happen.

With no invasion of Russia, France will probably pour its forces into Spain to try and end the Peninsular War, though I'm not sure whether this will work or not; they didn't call it "the Spanish Ulcer" for nothing.

I don't see why the French would be willing to give away the Netherlands or really any of the territory they've conquered. 1812 was pretty much the apogee of French continental dominance which would have lasted far longer had Napoleon not pissed it all away by invading Russia. Perhaps Austria will manage to get Illyria back, but that depends on whether or not the Empress' sympathy for her homeland and family win out over what the marshals want.

Anyways, Britain will likely be willing to make peace if Spain doesn't work out, Portugal remains independent, and the Continental System is dismantled. British reluctance to parley often smacked more of rabid anti-Bonapartism rather than Francophobia.
 
I don't see the British backing down with Bonapartes still on the thrones of Spain, Naples, and Westphalia. Or with Holland under French rule. Though Marie-Louise probably wouldn't be in a mood to prop up her wacky in-laws. And who can say where the marshals would stand without Napoleon.
 

Typo

Banned
Some sort of internal power struggle is probably inevitable once Napoleon is gone
 
If Napoleon dies right before the Russian Campaign, meaning 1812, his son Napoelon II is only one year old (having been born in 1811). This is definitely not good as it means a Regency for 15 years at least (until Nappy II is major). During that regency, the Regime will be very fragile...

I doubt Marie Louise will become Regent : the Empress of France had hardly any political power under Napoleon I. Besides, she's an Austrian : the French government isn't likely to let her have any words in the Regency council.

What we must take into account the following persons :
-Talleyrand and Fouché : these two are wild cards. They both had an important role under Napoleon but were hardly loyal to him (especially Talleyrand).
-The Bonaparte family : Napoleon's brothers are the next in line after Napoleon II. They are likely to play an important role.
-The Marshals : They are the ones leading the French army right after Napoleon himself. Without him, it is likely they will determine the situation's evolution.

Depending on what they choose to do, these persons will have a huge impact on what will happen after Napoleon's death.

I also have the feeling that, with Napoleon dead and is successor being a one year old, the chances of the First Empire remaining in place are low. We could see the rebirth of a French Republic or an earlier Bourbon Restoration in France.
 
Anyways, Britain will likely be willing to make peace if Spain doesn't work out, Portugal remains independent, and the Continental System is dismantled. British reluctance to parley often smacked more of rabid anti-Bonapartism rather than Francophobia.

Notably, this POD includes the Bonapartes retaining the throne. Anti-Bonapartism will remain, though at least the Corsican Tyrant will be gone. But it won't eliminate the claims that there are unlawful persons occupying thrones that aren't theirs - most notably France's.
 
IIRC Talleyrand was already working for the Tsar. On the other hand, it's Talleyrand. He's a hard man to keep out of a French government, and he'd love the irony.
 

HJ Tulp

Donor
If Napoleon dies in 1812 how does he die? Is he able to name someone to be supreme commander of the Grande Armee? Because I'm pretty sure the Russians will come knocking and if an idiot like Murat get's the Grand Armee then.....
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
I can see a de facto military junta of the Marshals under the guise of a regency for Napoleon II. But it would be a fractious one, to say the least. Murat would be constantly scheming to obtain the throne for himself (he was, after all, the Emperor's brother-in-law). Massena would be scooping up every franc that wasn't nailed down. The Emperor's brothers would be a problem, as would Talleyrand and Fouche.

Davout, in addition to being the greatest of the Marshals, was also the most loyal to Napoleon (which is why Napoleon left him in charge of Paris during the Waterloo campaign- a big mistake in retrospect). I could see Davout emerging as an effective military dictator, but then still stepping aside for Napoleon II when he came of age. That'd be a cool scenario.
 
Anaxagoras said:
I could see Davout emerging as an effective military dictator, but then still stepping aside for Napoleon II when he came of age. That'd be a cool scenario.

Not only is this cool, but that seems to me as a likely scenario. The question is: was Davout ambitious enough? He sure had the military skills (see the Battle of Auersterdt) but what about the political ones?

Another person who could try to ensure Napoleon II gets the French Imperial crown would be Eugene de Beauharnais, Napoleon's setpson, who was also very loyal to l'Empereur. Eugene would also have a strong backing since he would have inherited the crown of Italy (Napoleon had promised it to him provided he had not a second son) and was popular among foreign powers (Czar Alexander I liked him very much and so did many others). Yet the question would be the same as for Davout : Does he have the ambitions or the skills? I think so but I'm not sure.

Having Eugene and Davout cooperate would also be an interesting scenario but I don't know how much likely this is...
 
Maybe a bit far out...

...but Marie Louise had a very powerfull family, why shouldn't the Hapsburgs get their hands on the regency.
Metternich was smart and the likes of Talleyrant with little connection the military could be found as a natural ally.
I admit the military might not be pleased, but with the death of Napoleon the Austrians could make a move against France - they tried often enough and with Nappy dead, there might be a lot of support in Europe - unless the Emperor gets to raise his son, which would defuse the situation and secure peace in Europe.
A "real" French Austrian alliance would be the outcome with a regency officially run by the Hapsburgs but influenced by the French military.
A move like this would also secure peace with England and Russia as Metternich would see to that.
We could end up with an Über-police-state-semi-united-Europe (except UK) controlled by Metternich.
 
From what we know of Joseph Bonaparte's personality, it seems very likely that he would have abandoned Spain altogether (he wanted to numerous times, but Napoleon talked him out of it), and would probably be very supportive of Napoleon II getting the Imperial crown. He may negotiate to have himself restored to the recreated Kingdom of Holland (always his preferred situation), which as he was of the opinion that it was impossible to preserve to continental system, may be acceptable to Britain.
 
What happens in Poland?

I can't see Russia and Prussia tolerating the continued existence of the Grand Duchy of Warsaw for any length of time. And neither they nor the Austrians are likely to accept continued French possession of large chunks of Germany.

If the new French government gets its armies pulled back smartly to Rhine, Alps and Pyrenees, it has a good chance to keep those borders. If it tries to hold territory beyond those limits (ie keep Napoleon's Empire without Napoleon) we pretty soon get the war of the Umpteenth Coalition, and a settlement probably not hugely different from OTLs..
 
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