Plausibility Check: Second Balkan War escalates into world war

Sure.
Start with an early POD, which results in secret commitments between Bulgaria and Russia (secret agreements were not uncommon).

When Bulgaria starts getting clobbered and Sofia is threatened by Romania, the terms activate. Russia mobilizes against Romania.

Austria-Hungary realizes that Russian influence is about to grow much stronger in their neighborhood. Germany fears for her ally. Serbia, Greece and the Ottomans feel threatened. Great Britain smells a Russian advance to the Strait, and has chronic fears for India. France has obligations to Russia under some circumstances. The Anglo-French relationship is not yet of the strongest. The conviction that late mobilization means defeat, while mobilization itself means war, is current.

I think one could construct a plausible course of events that would result in a Great War under these conditions.

Well, if you wanted my attention, you've certainly got it now. :D
 
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