plausibility check: Romania stays neutral in 1916 but join CP in 1917

plausibility check: Romania stays neutral in 1916 but join CP in 1917

Romania stay neutral in aftermath of Brusilov offensive because Romanian wanted more entente troops to attack Bulgaria.

Falkenhayn only get replaced with Hindenburg on 29 aug 1916 after Romanian DOW

so long Falkenhayn is in command they are no USW or Zimmerman telegraph.no Hindenburg economic programme which led to turnip winter.

how long Falkenhayn will stay in command absent Romanian DOW ?

could Falkenhayn survive in command until Russian revolution in march 1917 ?

could Romania join central power after Russian revolution march 1917 ?
 

Deleted member 1487

Its tough to get them to do so without a POD altering the Brusilov offensive and getting it to be less successful. It really looked like it was now or never for Romania and they didn't want to miss out on the spoils. You really have to change that event to get anything. I'd say an easy one is to have Conrad die of something in 1915, so he doesn't do his 'Strafexpedition' in 1916 and strip out the Eastern Front to get the resources; that left the Austrian troops in the East supremely vulnerable and even Brusilov was shocked by his success IOTL. So have Conrad die, his OTL successor take over early, and that guy sit tight in 1916 (which he would have, he was pretty well aware that his troops needed German help to successfully attack) and then blunt Brusilov in 1916 on his own. It was very doable had the Austrians had a competent commander, which Arz was.

In that case you still have the Russian offensive, it just isn't as successful and gives the Romanians a reason to sit it out. They wait and in 1917 they join in as the Russians start to fall apart. Falkenhayn isn't fired, gets credit for the Russian Revolution, avoids screwing up the German economy like Ludendorff does, likely doesn't endorse USW and undermine the Kaiser as H-L did, and reaps all the rewards in 1917. The problem with Falky is that he had a bad defensive doctrine and wouldn't do the pull back to Hindenburg line as per OTL, which will hurt in 1917 quite badly, as it forestalled some Entente offensives that would have done some damage. Of course without the Entente gaining US entry into the war the French might not have been able to attack due to the mutinies not being resolved (US entry was a major piece of that). Likely though nothing fatal happens to the Germans and they gain all the benefits of no US entry, the Russian collapse, and no Ludendorff screwing everything up. So that pretty much means a CP victory by default in the 1917 peace negotiations.
 
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