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I'm toying with an idea on the side (mostly just for myself when I get bored) and I just wanted to get the feedback of you peoples here on alternate history.

So here is the premise. The Pannonian Revolt is crushed in its early stages in 6 AD by Caecina Severus at the Battle of Sirmium. (IOTL the Romans won a victory but took so many losses they still had to pull back and couldn't follow it up). This allows Tiberius to remain in Germania and not be replaced by Arminius.

Now fast forward to 9 AD. Segestes warns Tiberius of Arminius's plan to betray the Romans and lead them into a trap. Tiberius believes him. However, instead of confronting and imprisoning Arminius on the spot, Tiberius plays along with Arminius. When Arminius asks to leave and go gather troops, Tiberius doesn't allow him. Outside the pass at Teutoburg, Tiberius stops his men and sends cavalry scouts ahead. The scouts are ambushed and Tiberius sends the rest of his force forward countering the ambush. The result is a complete rout of the Germanic forces. Arminius is arrested on the spot after the battle, and is paraded during Tiberius's triumph in Rome.

Now my question to you guys is how plausible is Tiberius's action and the battle scenario itself? If it's not too plausible, I'd appreciate it if you pointed out the flaws and gave me some suggestions.

Cheers.
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