Plausibility Check: Reverse Teutoberger Wald

I'm toying with an idea on the side (mostly just for myself when I get bored) and I just wanted to get the feedback of you peoples here on alternate history.

So here is the premise. The Pannonian Revolt is crushed in its early stages in 6 AD by Caecina Severus at the Battle of Sirmium. (IOTL the Romans won a victory but took so many losses they still had to pull back and couldn't follow it up). This allows Tiberius to remain in Germania and not be replaced by Arminius.

Now fast forward to 9 AD. Segestes warns Tiberius of Arminius's plan to betray the Romans and lead them into a trap. Tiberius believes him. However, instead of confronting and imprisoning Arminius on the spot, Tiberius plays along with Arminius. When Arminius asks to leave and go gather troops, Tiberius doesn't allow him. Outside the pass at Teutoburg, Tiberius stops his men and sends cavalry scouts ahead. The scouts are ambushed and Tiberius sends the rest of his force forward countering the ambush. The result is a complete rout of the Germanic forces. Arminius is arrested on the spot after the battle, and is paraded during Tiberius's triumph in Rome.

Now my question to you guys is how plausible is Tiberius's action and the battle scenario itself? If it's not too plausible, I'd appreciate it if you pointed out the flaws and gave me some suggestions.

Cheers.
 
I'm toying with an idea on the side (mostly just for myself when I get bored) and I just wanted to get the feedback of you peoples here on alternate history.

So here is the premise. The Pannonian Revolt is crushed in its early stages in 6 AD by Caecina Severus at the Battle of Sirmium. (IOTL the Romans won a victory but took so many losses they still had to pull back and couldn't follow it up). This allows Tiberius to remain in Germania and not be replaced by Arminius.

Now fast forward to 9 AD. Segestes warns Tiberius of Arminius's plan to betray the Romans and lead them into a trap. Tiberius believes him. However, instead of confronting and imprisoning Arminius on the spot, Tiberius plays along with Arminius. When Arminius asks to leave and go gather troops, Tiberius doesn't allow him. Outside the pass at Teutoburg, Tiberius stops his men and sends cavalry scouts ahead. The scouts are ambushed and Tiberius sends the rest of his force forward countering the ambush. The result is a complete rout of the Germanic forces. Arminius is arrested on the spot after the battle, and is paraded during Tiberius's triumph in Rome.

Now my question to you guys is how plausible is Tiberius's action and the battle scenario itself? If it's not too plausible, I'd appreciate it if you pointed out the flaws and gave me some suggestions.

Cheers.

If the Pannonian revolt is crushed, Tiberius would most likely go on with the planned invasion of the Marcomanni. This might butterfly Arminius's revolt entirely or make it very different.
 
If the Pannonian revolt is crushed, Tiberius would most likely go on with the planned invasion of the Marcomanni. This might butterfly Arminius's revolt entirely or make it very different.

Hmmm. I may have misread what I read then. I had assumed the peace treaty concluded with the Marcomanni was concluded prior to the revolt in 6 AD but now it makes more sense that it was hastily created because of the revolt.

Maybe this could make Arminius's revolt bigger than what it was. IIRC, he tried to get the Marcomanni to join, but they refused.
 
Also, in the conditions the Romans were fighting in - the forest, the weather, etc. - even if the scouts spring the ambush, things are not favoring the legions.

And a complete rout would be difficult to achieve accordingly - not to mention that Arminius being dead (or with the survivors of the field, like William Wallace after Falkirk) seems more likely than a prisoner.

Not a given, but capturing him might take some doing.
 
Also, in the conditions the Romans were fighting in - the forest, the weather, etc. - even if the scouts spring the ambush, things are not favoring the legions.

And a complete rout would be difficult to achieve accordingly - not to mention that Arminius being dead (or with the survivors of the field, like William Wallace after Falkirk) seems more likely than a prisoner.

Not a given, but capturing him might take some doing.

This is what I was afraid of being the case.
 
It's worth noting, though, that Teutoberger Wald being not only a defeat but a massacre, is avertable.

That took a failure of leadership.

Hmmm. So you mean that Teutoberger Wald if allowed to go as it did (except with better leadership of course) could be turned completely around when the ambush starts? Hmm... This might be an even better idea.
 
Hmmm. So you mean that Teutoberger Wald if allowed to go as it did (except with better leadership of course) could be turned completely around when the ambush starts? Hmm... This might be an even better idea.

No, I mean that you could with better leadership see the legions cut their way through to safety (for a given definition of) - as opposed to being slaughtered.

But that doesn't mean they could win, as in beat Arminius.
 
Top