Plausibility check: Post-HRE Italian or German state or confederation in 13th century

Taking into consideration this thread and others like it, is it possible to unite much of Germany or Italy separately from one another with a thirteenth century POD?

Specifically I'm wondering if Frederick II, Holy Roman Emperor can end up reducing the Empire to merely Italy, or unite much of the country another way. Further, is it credible to have a German Confederation formed from the northern parts of the Holy Roman Empire as a result of the reign of Frederick II? Could either Germany or Italy come to be as united in the 1200s as Spain was in 1550 or Aragon was in 1410?
 
After the death of Friedrich II everything fell pretty much apart, so you'll need a POD around or before 1250.

Right, but what specifically? Would it help to have Frederick never recognized by Innocent III, or to merely never have him go on a crusade?
 
Frederick, plain and simple, needs to win battles he didn't OTL.

I'm not sure what kind of POD would turn him to focusing only on Italy (as in, saying "screw this" to the larger aspect of the HRE entirely instead of being not entirely unlike how Richard I ignored England, but less so).

I'd suggest having something happen where Manfred gets a firm hold on Sicily and the Staufens down there build from there - Germany and the rest can fall apart as OTL. That would be a good way to get a United Italy early.

United Germany isn't a whole lot easier or different than All of the Empire, and a Confederation...well, how bad is OTL here? Just for comparison.
 
Frederick, plain and simple, needs to win battles he didn't OTL.

I'm not sure what kind of POD would turn him to focusing only on Italy (as in, saying "screw this" to the larger aspect of the HRE entirely instead of being not entirely unlike how Richard I ignored England, but less so).

I'd suggest having something happen where Manfred gets a firm hold on Sicily and the Staufens down there build from there - Germany and the rest can fall apart as OTL. That would be a good way to get a United Italy early.

United Germany isn't a whole lot easier or different than All of the Empire, and a Confederation...well, how bad is OTL here? Just for comparison.

Good points all. What has to happen in order for Manfred or another heir of Frederick II to hold the Italian possessions and consolidate/assert control over most of the rest of Italy?
 
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