Plausibility Check: Portuguese Monarchy

Okay, so I've been working on editing and revamping my current work on my TL Austria: Never Forget Thy Past. One of the comments I remember was that one of my subplots, involving a restored Portuguese Monarchy, wasn't entirely accurate/plausible. Below I posted the relevant plot line and I'm interested in comments on and criticism of it. Specifically whether The restoration of the Maunelists is more like then the Miguelists and whether or not Salazar would even be a viable political force in a Monarchist Portugal.

Erm so:

October 19, 1921
Portuguese Prime Minister António Joaquim Granjo is assassinated in Lisbon by Portuguese Monarchists. Portugal descends into a three-way civil war between divided a Republican front united by their hatred of the Monarchy, but divided on everything else, Manuelists, who supported former King Manuel II, and the Miguelists, who supported Duarte Nuno, Duke of Braganza.

March 9, 1922
Monarchists in the Portuguese Civil War end their infighting, Manuel II agrees to recognize Duarte Nuno as his universal heir assuming he has no male children to supercede the Duke of Braganza. The Portuguese Civil War now pits a united Monarchist Front against a Republican Front that is plagued with internal division and conflict.

July 13, 1922
Portuguese Monarchists who had been biding their time in Northern areas of Portugal begin to push toward Lisbon after the Republican Front collapses. The Republicans, shortly there before, had begun fighting among themselves with the Communists and hardliner Leftists versus the more moderate and Classical Liberal Republicans.

January 28, 1923
Portuguese Monarchists besiege the capital city of Lisbon, the last strong hold of Republican forces.

February 16, 1923
Portuguese Monarchists capture Lisbon, proclaiming Manuel II once again King of Portugal.

February 21, 1923
Manuel II is crowned in Lisbon. The ceremony is attended by various Heads of State and dignitaries, including Archduchess Zita and the young Archduke Franz Joseph II.

August 11, 1923
Queen Augusta of Portugal gives birth to a son. Manuel II initially does not proclaim the child his successor for fear of the reaction by Miguelists.

August 18, 1923
King Manuel II, having been assured that following the Civil War, most Portuguese Monarchists loyalties lay with him, his strips his former heir Duarte Nuno of his title and political power. Duarte Nuno fails at an attempt to oust Manuel and flees to Brazil as a result.

August 20, 1923
King Manuel II of Portugal proclaims his new born son, Filipe(Eng. Philip), his heir and gives him the title Duke of Braganza.

May 28, 1926
The Portuguese Army brutally crushes an attempt by Republican Leftists to oust the Monarchy and create a Socialist Republic in Portugal.

July 2, 1932
Manuel II of Portugal dies and is succeeded by his 8 year old son as King of Portugal.

July 5, 1932
Following the death of King Manuel II in Portugal a massive coup takes place in the Portuguese Legislature resulting in António de Oliveira Salazar being declared Prime Minister of Portugal. He shortly there after manuvers his way into becoming the Regent for Manuel II’s young son.

August 11, 1932
Felipe, Duke of Barganza, is crown King Felipe IV of Portugal on his nineth birthday. The coronation is presided over largely by his Prime-Minister/Regent António de Oliveira Salazar.
 
Nice, but I see a problem here: Manuel and Augusta could not have children. I don't know exactly who was responsible for that, there are sources that say Manuel suffered from syphilis, others that claim Augusta was esterile, but the fact is that she never got pregnant during her life.

So, if you want to follow the line of Braganza-Wettin then you must actually give the crown to Frederick Augustus III of Saxony, or to one of his brother or sons. Frederick Augustus' mother was the Infanta Maria Anna, the eldest surviving daughter of Maria II of Portugal. Other option would be follow the line of other daughter of Maria II, Infanta Antonia of Portugal, who married Leopold of Hohenzollern (whose heir was Frederick Victor, brother of Augusta).

However, the Portuguese historically never liked the idea of a foreign king. Remember that Maria I was married to her own uncle in order to keep the Braganzas as rulers of Portugal. This was one of the reasons why Manuel accepted to make the Miguelist line as the heirs of the Portuguese throne instead of a German noble. Also, he believe it would unite the defenders of the monarchy under a Portuguese claimant.

Also, even if by miracle Manuel had a son, the name Felipe would be like having a John as king of the UK, due to the memories of the Iberian Union. Since the Restoration in 1640 never a Prince of Portugal was named Felipe (well, there was Manuel's eldest brother, Luís Felipe, but he had Luís first and would be called by that regnal name). If he ever had I son I think he would name him after his assassinated father, Charles, or after his brother.
 
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If you assume Manuel was sterile this dosen't really make it impossible for Augusta to bear him an "heir"...
 
If you assume Manuel was sterile this dosen't really make it impossible for Augusta to bear him an "heir"...

Sure, but as I said, isn't know of Manuel or Augusta was the sterile one. What I said is that if Manuel ever had a son he wouldn't name him as Felipe.

However, while Manuel accepted Duarte as his heir (during the Pact of Dover, made in 1912) later, in 1922, he made the Pact of Paris, that recognized the only institution that could indicate his heir were the Cortes of Portugal (the Parliament). It's like the situation of 1580: by primogeniture the throne should go first to Ranuccio Farnese, and then to Catherine of Braganza, but the Cortes chose Philip II of Portugal. So, if Manuel II dies childless the Parliament would choose the next king of Portugal.

You also need to consider that, by the laws of succession made after the Restoration in 1640, were excluded from the throne all Portuguese princesses married to foreigners and their descendents. But again, as the next monarch would be chosen by the Parliament, they might not care about it.

A possible solution for your problem would be assume that the sterile of the couple was Augusta and kill her (a radical Republican could make it, trying to kill the king but hitting his wife instead). Then Manuel can marry someone else and have a child. Also, kill Duarte Nuno too, and so the Miguelist would have no male claimant (as his eldest brother renounced to his and his descendents claims). There would be no male Braganza from the line of Miguel I to claim the throne.

Also, if you want to end any possible claim from the Miguelists, make the son of Manuel II marry the daughter of Franz Josef, Prince of Thurn und Taxis. In 1920 he married the eldest daughter of Miguel II of Braganza (the father of Duarte Nuno), Isabel. IOTL they had three children, a boy who died during WW2 and two girls. Make the boy die ITTL again, or be born a girl this time, and you could unite both claims.
 
Does this mean that Austria:Never Forget thy past will be making a return appearance?
Yes, hopefully soon revamped somewhat.

A possible solution for your problem would be assume that the sterile of the couple was Augusta and kill her (a radical Republican could make it, trying to kill the king but hitting his wife instead). Then Manuel can marry someone else and have a child. Also, kill Duarte Nuno too, and so the Miguelist would have no male claimant (as his eldest brother renounced to his and his descendents claims). There would be no male Braganza from the line of Miguel I to claim the throne.

Also, if you want to end any possible claim from the Miguelists, make the son of Manuel II marry the daughter of Franz Josef, Prince of Thurn und Taxis. In 1920 he married the eldest daughter of Miguel II of Braganza (the father of Duarte Nuno), Isabel. IOTL they had three children, a boy who died during WW2 and two girls. Make the boy die ITTL again, or be born a girl this time, and you could unite both claims.
I think I'll probably go with this.

What about Salazar?
 
Okay, so I've been working on editing and revamping my current work on my TL Austria: Never Forget Thy Past. One of the comments I remember was that one of my subplots, involving a restored Portuguese Monarchy, wasn't entirely accurate/plausible. Below I posted the relevant plot line and I'm interested in comments on and criticism of it. Specifically whether The restoration of the Maunelists is more like then the Miguelists and whether or not Salazar would even be a viable political force in a Monarchist Portugal.

Erm so:

October 19, 1921
Portuguese Prime Minister António Joaquim Granjo is assassinated in Lisbon by Portuguese Monarchists. Portugal descends into a three-way civil war between divided a Republican front united by their hatred of the Monarchy, but divided on everything else, Manuelists, who supported former King Manuel II, and the Miguelists, who supported Duarte Nuno, Duke of Braganza.

March 9, 1922
Monarchists in the Portuguese Civil War end their infighting, Manuel II agrees to recognize Duarte Nuno as his universal heir assuming he has no male children to supercede the Duke of Braganza. The Portuguese Civil War now pits a united Monarchist Front against a Republican Front that is plagued with internal division and conflict.

July 13, 1922
Portuguese Monarchists who had been biding their time in Northern areas of Portugal begin to push toward Lisbon after the Republican Front collapses. The Republicans, shortly there before, had begun fighting among themselves with the Communists and hardliner Leftists versus the more moderate and Classical Liberal Republicans.

January 28, 1923
Portuguese Monarchists besiege the capital city of Lisbon, the last strong hold of Republican forces.

February 16, 1923
Portuguese Monarchists capture Lisbon, proclaiming Manuel II once again King of Portugal.

February 21, 1923
Manuel II is crowned in Lisbon. The ceremony is attended by various Heads of State and dignitaries, including Archduchess Zita and the young Archduke Franz Joseph II.

August 11, 1923
Queen Augusta of Portugal gives birth to a son. Manuel II initially does not proclaim the child his successor for fear of the reaction by Miguelists.

August 18, 1923
King Manuel II, having been assured that following the Civil War, most Portuguese Monarchists loyalties lay with him, his strips his former heir Duarte Nuno of his title and political power. Duarte Nuno fails at an attempt to oust Manuel and flees to Brazil as a result.

August 20, 1923
King Manuel II of Portugal proclaims his new born son, Filipe(Eng. Philip), his heir and gives him the title Duke of Braganza.

May 28, 1926
The Portuguese Army brutally crushes an attempt by Republican Leftists to oust the Monarchy and create a Socialist Republic in Portugal.

July 2, 1932
Manuel II of Portugal dies and is succeeded by his 8 year old son as King of Portugal.

July 5, 1932
Following the death of King Manuel II in Portugal a massive coup takes place in the Portuguese Legislature resulting in António de Oliveira Salazar being declared Prime Minister of Portugal. He shortly there after manuvers his way into becoming the Regent for Manuel II’s young son.

August 11, 1932
Felipe, Duke of Barganza, is crown King Felipe IV of Portugal on his nineth birthday. The coronation is presided over largely by his Prime-Minister/Regent António de Oliveira Salazar.

In addition to what Gonzaga said;), I would suggest the following changes:):


October 19, 1921
Portuguese Prime Minister António Joaquim Granjo is assassinated in Lisbon by Portuguese Republicans[1]. Portugal descends into a three-way civil war between divided a Republican front united by their hatred of the Monarchy, but divided on everything else, Manuelists, who supported former King Manuel II, and the Miguelists, who supported Duarte Nuno, Duke of Braganza.



July 13, 1922
Portuguese Monarchists who had been biding their time in Northern areas of Portugal begin to push toward Lisbon after the Republican Front collapses. The Republicans, shortly there before, had begun fighting among themselves with hardliner Anarchists[2] versus the more moderate and Classical Liberal Republicans.

January 28, 1923
Portuguese Monarchists besiege the capital city of Lisbon, the last stronghold of Republican forces.

February 16, 1923
Portuguese Monarchists capture Lisbon with foreign help, proclaiming Manuel II once again King of Portugal.[3]


August 18, 1923
King Manuel II, having been assured that following the Civil War, most Portuguese Monarchists loyalties lay with him, his strips his former heir Duarte Nuno of his title and political power. Duarte Nuno fails at an attempt to oust Manuel and flees to Brazil as a result.



May 28, 1926
The Portuguese Army brutally crushes an attempt by Republican radicals[4] to oust the Monarchy and recreate a Republic[4] in Portugal.



What about Salazar?

IMO, if the Kingdom slides into a dictatorship, will be an Integralist one, instead of an Austro-Fascist like in OTL 1932-1974. There’s açso a very good chance moderate republicans will support the King and moderate monarchists against Integralists. Given Salazar republicanism (he only considered reinstating a monarchy in OTL to have a figurehead Kingdom if the move was popular enough), he won’t become a Prime-Minister, nor a regent (which would be two separate functions). The best he can aim in this setting is becoming the Finance Minister if the ATL version of the Great Depression forces to country to that.

[1] - Monarchists wouldn’t attempt against the life of a centre-right politician.
[2] – The Portuguese Communist Part was founded on 6 March, 1921, and before the dictatorship (OTL 1926) they were very small, while Anarchists had some influence, but not enough to defeat the Republicans, just to be an annoyance for them.
[3] – Monarchism was no longer majoritary, which requires foreign help. Manuel II would have to compromise a lot with moderate republicans, including to counterbalance the Integralists (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integralismo_Lusitano), who in OTL became supporters of Manuel II.
[4] – They would be considered centre-right nowadays, with some others on the centre left and others in the left, which would make them a regular Democracy (well, sort of).

I hope this helps. :)
 
In addition to what Gonzaga said;), I would suggest the following changes:):


October 19, 1921
Portuguese Prime Minister António Joaquim Granjo is assassinated in Lisbon by Portuguese Republicans[1]. Portugal descends into a three-way civil war between divided a Republican front united by their hatred of the Monarchy, but divided on everything else, Manuelists, who supported former King Manuel II, and the Miguelists, who supported Duarte Nuno, Duke of Braganza.



July 13, 1922
Portuguese Monarchists who had been biding their time in Northern areas of Portugal begin to push toward Lisbon after the Republican Front collapses. The Republicans, shortly there before, had begun fighting among themselves with hardliner Anarchists[2] versus the more moderate and Classical Liberal Republicans.

January 28, 1923
Portuguese Monarchists besiege the capital city of Lisbon, the last stronghold of Republican forces.

February 16, 1923
Portuguese Monarchists capture Lisbon with foreign help, proclaiming Manuel II once again King of Portugal.[3]


August 18, 1923
King Manuel II, having been assured that following the Civil War, most Portuguese Monarchists loyalties lay with him, his strips his former heir Duarte Nuno of his title and political power. Duarte Nuno fails at an attempt to oust Manuel and flees to Brazil as a result.



May 28, 1926
The Portuguese Army brutally crushes an attempt by Republican radicals[4] to oust the Monarchy and recreate a Republic[4] in Portugal.





IMO, if the Kingdom slides into a dictatorship, will be an Integralist one, instead of an Austro-Fascist like in OTL 1932-1974. There’s açso a very good chance moderate republicans will support the King and moderate monarchists against Integralists. Given Salazar republicanism (he only considered reinstating a monarchy in OTL to have a figurehead Kingdom if the move was popular enough), he won’t become a Prime-Minister, nor a regent (which would be two separate functions). The best he can aim in this setting is becoming the Finance Minister if the ATL version of the Great Depression forces to country to that.

[1] - Monarchists wouldn’t attempt against the life of a centre-right politician.
[2] – The Portuguese Communist Part was founded on 6 March, 1921, and before the dictatorship (OTL 1926) they were very small, while Anarchists had some influence, but not enough to defeat the Republicans, just to be an annoyance for them.
[3] – Monarchism was no longer majoritary, which requires foreign help. Manuel II would have to compromise a lot with moderate republicans, including to counterbalance the Integralists (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integralismo_Lusitano), who in OTL became supporters of Manuel II.
[4] – They would be considered centre-right nowadays, with some others on the centre left and others in the left, which would make them a regular Democracy (well, sort of).

I hope this helps. :)

A small correction to my post:
[3] – Monarchism was no longer majoritary, which requires foreign help. Manuel II would have to compromise a lot with moderate republicans, including to counterbalance the Integralists (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integralismo_Lusitano), who in OTL became supporters of Duarte Nuno.
 
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