Plausibility Check: Polish Revolution leads to earlier World War

So I had this idea for a TL that has a Rosa Luxemburg delivering a speech in 1905 that does more than it did OTL. Instead of just having polish workers go on strike it does what she had wanted and starts a Polish uprising/revolution (though bloodier than she might have wanted). The Germans seeking to capitalize on this event start secretly shipping weapons to the revolting Poles. The Russians discover this and declare war on Germany, Germany declaring war France, Austria-Hungary declaring war on Russia and France ect. So is it possible?
 

archaeogeek

Banned
In 1908, the powers threatened to mobilize over Bosnia.
In 1912, the powers threatened to mobilize over Albania and Macedonia.
It just takes a spark with the alliance system in place, mobilizing over the austrian heir apparent's murder by serbian irredentists just happened to be the one that kicked off everything.

So I'll vote yes.
 
This is probably one of the best times for Germany to knock the Russians down a peg or two. The Russians are in the midst of great turmoil due to their defeat to the Japanese. The threat of another common enemy will either rally the Russians behind the Tsar or further fracture Russia. I think that the other great powers will be reluctant to intervene to save Russia, since it doesn't look like it will be able to pull it's weight in an alliance. The French are the only ones who will probably intervene. This is before the Schlieffen Plan was adopted, so the Germans will probably try to hold the French in Alsace-Lorraine and focus on Russia, thus avoiding near-instant British entry into the war. The British will probably sit this one out. The Ottomans might join to get some land out of the Russian bear, and the Japanese might be tempted to overturn some of the more unjust (in their view) provisions of the Treaty of Portsmouth.

I'm somewhat skeptical of the Germans supplying Polish revolutionaries, since Germany had its own Polish minority to deal with. However, it's not too implausible, so I'll accept it.
 
This is probably one of the best times for Germany to knock the Russians down a peg or two. The Russians are in the midst of great turmoil due to their defeat to the Japanese. The threat of another common enemy will either rally the Russians behind the Tsar or further fracture Russia. I think that the other great powers will be reluctant to intervene to save Russia, since it doesn't look like it will be able to pull it's weight in an alliance. The French are the only ones who will probably intervene. This is before the Schlieffen Plan was adopted, so the Germans will probably try to hold the French in Alsace-Lorraine and focus on Russia, thus avoiding near-instant British entry into the war. The British will probably sit this one out. The Ottomans might join to get some land out of the Russian bear, and the Japanese might be tempted to overturn some of the more unjust (in their view) provisions of the Treaty of Portsmouth.

I'm somewhat skeptical of the Germans supplying Polish revolutionaries, since Germany had its own Polish minority to deal with. However, it's not too implausible, so I'll accept it.

Thats what I was worried about, but I was hoping the Germans would want to knock the Russians down more than they worried about the Poles in there own nation.
 
Thats what I was worried about, but I was hoping the Germans would want to knock the Russians down more than they worried about the Poles in there own nation.

Perhaps if the Kaiser hets his puppet Polish kingdom under a Habsburh the Reich will encourage more vocal Poles to emigrate? After all I think any sane Polish government will be more fearful of Russian revenge than covetous of a Corridor.

But then again this era is not known for rational level headed leadership in any sector.
 

archaeogeek

Banned
The very idea of mass mobilizing at the first sign that your foreign policy is not going exactly your way was not exactly the sign of level headed rulers in Europe ("What do you mean "Bulgaria is getting Macedonia"? MOBILIZE EVERYONE!" - the brinksmanship and the generals' mentality makes me feel like the entire world suddenly ruled by a bunch of Zap Brannigans): I can easily see the germans reassuring themselves that the minority of german poles is not much of a problem (Posen has only 2 million people with a german minority in 1910, while the other million or two poles in Germany are heavily mingled in german-majority provinces) and completely ignoring Galicia.
 

Cook

Banned
The very idea of mass mobilizing at the first sign that your foreign policy is not going exactly your way was not exactly the sign of level headed rulers in Europe.

That’s nothing; look at the Single Integrated Operational Plan from 1960 pretty much until the end of the Cold War.


Given that the German high command happily sent a sealed train full of revolutionaries on its way to Russia, when at the same time as the Reich was on the verge of its own Communist revolution is a fair indication that you are right; a certain degree of risk assessment was lacking.
 

archaeogeek

Banned


That’s nothing; look at the Single Integrated Operational Plan from 1960 pretty much until the end of the Cold War.


Given that the German high command happily sent a sealed train full of revolutionaries on its way to Russia, when at the same time as the Reich was on the verge of its own Communist revolution is a fair indication that you are right; a certain degree of risk assessment was lacking.

Was that the plan which called for virtually nuking Germany to oblivion within the first few hours or the one where the british made preparations to keep fighting on the assumption that about 90% of the british citizenry would die within two weeks? :p

(Oh, I figured which one: the one that basically called for a first strike on every communist country with about 3000 targets, yeah that would have been a brilliant decision).
 
I hate how everyone assumes Germany always wins always sudden Russio-German (they in this case fully caused). In this scenario there is a good chance that A-H will sit things out and let Germany be hammered while cutting deals with the other powers.

The Russian Imperial Army in the early 20th Century wasn’t the hopeless case that people here seem to think. The Germans could easily walk into a bloody disaster if they take the offence by marching into Russian held Poland. While the Russians remain on the defensive.
 
I hate how everyone assumes Germany always wins always sudden Russio-German (they in this case fully caused). In this scenario there is a good chance that A-H will sit things out and let Germany be hammered while cutting deals with the other powers.

The Russian Imperial Army in the early 20th Century wasn’t the hopeless case that people here seem to think. The Germans could easily walk into a bloody disaster if they take the offence by marching into Russian held Poland. While the Russians remain on the defensive.

You forget the turmoil in Russia at the time. They had just been beaten by Japan, and public faith in the Tsar was very low. If the Germans win a few early victories, there is a very good chance of revolution.
 

Xanth

Banned
So I had this idea for a TL that has a Rosa Luxemburg delivering a speech in 1905 that does more than it did OTL. Instead of just having polish workers go on strike it does what she had wanted and starts a Polish uprising/revolution (though bloodier than she might have wanted).
Rosa Luxemburg had influence on Polish workers? Where did you find that information.
She was personally opposed to Poles and Polish state. The idea of Polish revolution is unlikely since by 1905 you had Polish positivism based on experience of 1831 and 1863 uprisings. Poles wouldn't throw themselves into pointless fight against Russia again(although civili disobedience and strikes are possible.
But Rosa Luxemburg wouldn't start it, since her party in Polish territories was marginal and had little to no influence among Polish society.
 
I find it hard to believe that Germany would rush in to help Polish revolutionaries. They have their own Polish minority to care of and hardly would fire on polish nationalism. And if the Polish revolution has (Luxemburg!) any socialist leaning, I'd rather assume that the Germans cooperate with the Russians in beating the Poles.

Note, though, that close German-Russian cooperation in 1908 might be as interesting as war...
 
Oops, I seem to have misread my source. What happened was Bloody Sunday started the 1905 revolution, Luxemburg then tried to incite a workers revolution in Russian occupied Poland. So the Pod ITTL that I’m working would be that Luxemburg succeeds in inciting a popular revolution throughout Russian occupied Poland via Russian troops opening fire on Polish workers after a speech she makes.

I so I’m not sure does Germany help the Polish/Russian Revolutionaries? Help the Russians Tsar? Or sit this out?
 

Nietzsche

Banned
I find it hard to believe that Germany would rush in to help Polish revolutionaries. They have their own Polish minority to care of and hardly would fire on polish nationalism. And if the Polish revolution has (Luxemburg!) any socialist leaning, I'd rather assume that the Germans cooperate with the Russians in beating the Poles.

Note, though, that close German-Russian cooperation in 1908 might be as interesting as war...

Germany was willing to give Posen to a new Polish Kingdom in the early parts of WW1. Losing Posen is no great loss.
 

Susano

Banned
Germany was willing to give Posen to a new Polish Kingdom in the early parts of WW1. Losing Posen is no great loss.

Huh? Most assuredly not. Austria was ready to give Galicia if theres a Habsburg on the Polish throne, but Germany/Prussia had no plans to give up Posen/Poznan.
 
Huh? Most assuredly not. Austria was ready to give Galicia if theres a Habsburg on the Polish throne, but Germany/Prussia had no plans to give up Posen/Poznan.

I agree. On the contrary, there was the dubios war aim of "border corrections" which meant that even a Kingdom of Poland should first lose some border districts to Germany.
 
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