Plausibility Check: Pashalik of Timbuktu TL

Sycamore

Banned
So, for those who've never heard of it before (and all likelihood, virtually no-one will), the Pashalik of Timbuktu was an independent African state created by the Armas people, descended from the Moroccan expeditionary force which had defeated the Songhai army at Tondibi and conquered Gao, Timbuktu and Djenné in 1591 (made up of four thousand Moroccan, Morisco Refugees and European renegades, armed with European-style arquebuses- introducing gun warfare to Sub-Saharan Africa for the very first time). They were unable to exert their control outside their large fortifications to take over the majority of the territories and tributaries formerly held by the Songhai Empire, and within a decade, the expedition's leaders were abandoned by Morocco.

Left to their own devices, the men of the 1591 expedition intermarried with the Songhai, became small scale independent rulers, and from 1618 onwards, they began to elect their leaders (who had previously been appointed by the Sultan of Morocco), establishing an independent republic with its capital in Timbuktu. However, IOTL, while the Pashalik was governed as an independent republic, the Armas still continued to recognize Moroccan sultans as their leaders. During the Moroccan civil war the Pashalik supported the legitimate Sultan, Zidan al-Nasir (deceased in Sept 1627), and they would pledge their allegiance to the Alaouite dynasty in 1670, after it came to power and re-unified Morocco.

So, I've been seriously contemplating doing an alternate TL, focused upon the history of a far more successful Pashalik of Timbuktu, for some time- though I'm kind of in two minds about which POD to use (should the elected leader of the Armas return to Morocco as a faction in the Civil War, eventually emerging victorious and unifying a greatly expanded trans-Saharan Morocco under the world's first Islamic Republic? Or should the Armas break all ties with the Moroccans, and extend ties to the breakaway former provinces and tribuary states of the collapsed Songhai Empire, re-unifying most of them under a relatively Republican Confederation, and using its key military advantage of gunpowder weaponry to conquer the rest?), I just wanted to get people's opinions on the plausibility of such a TL.

Just how powerful, how advanced, how enduring and how democratic do you think that the Pashalik of Timbuktu (and/or its future direct descendants) could potentially become in an ATL, without stretching the limits of plausibility beyond breaking point? And what do you think would be the most probable and/or most interesting long-term changes which could be explored in such a TL?
 
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Wish I could contribute to the topic but I don't know much about this topic to even give any useful feedback.
Very interesting topic though and we have very few TL centered in this region.

Was your goal to at least make them a dominant force in the Sahel? It would be interesting to see how they handle being aware of their small size but also their incredible power projection from Djenne and Timbuktu.

I'd personally like to see Judar Pasha as a mostly loyal commander that's held back from rising in rank in Morocco but still deemed useful enough to help beat back the Songhai from the Salt mines. And in the end, ultimately forced to strike out on his own.

He's just gotta survive them civil wars and take advantage of em I think.

I'm guessing he'd build a network of alliances with the more friendly Tuareg clans and some Imazighen influenced Mande clans to well to start off with in the mean time?

Very interested in this POD for the TL if you do decide to make it. Everyone loves a underdog, but everyone loves an outcast underdog better.
You'll definitely get my support and attention.
 
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I'd be fascinated to see this, although I'd have to do more research before I made any substantive suggestions - this isn't one of the times and places I know best.
 

Sycamore

Banned
Wish I could contribute to the topic but I don't know much about this topic to even give any useful feedback.
Very interesting topic though and we have very few TL centered in this region.

Was your goal to at least make them a dominant force in the Sahel? It would be interesting to see how they handle being aware of their small size but also their incredible power projection from Djenne and Timbuktu.

I'd personally like to see Judar Pasha as a mostly loyal commander that's held back from rising in rank in Morocco but still deemed useful enough to help beat back the Songhai from the Salt mines. And in the end, ultimately forced to strike out on his own.

He's just gotta survive them civil wars and take advantage of em I think.

I'm guessing he'd build a network of alliances with the more friendly Tuareg clans and some Imazighen influenced Mande clans to well to start off with in the mean time?

Very interested in this POD for the TL if you do decide to make it. Everyone loves a underdog, but everyone loves an outcast underdog better.
You'll definitely get my support and attention.

Part of my goal would be to make them a dominant force in the Sahel, yes- but part of my goal would also be to have them spurring the development of sub-Saharan Africa. Their campaign introduced gunpowder warfare to sub-Saharan Africa for the first time, and demonstrated its clear superiority at the Battle of Tondibi. If Judar Pasha's nation/confederation of allied states becomes an established major power in the region, then other African nations with the necessary metalworking skills (which include far more than you'd think) would doubtless also start adopting gunpowder weapons in order to compete with them, and to repel any potential invasions from the Pashalik and its allies. And that could make things very interesting in the long run, especially when the Europeans eventually come knocking...
 
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