Plausibility Check : Paraguayan Mesopotamia ?

[Ridwan Asher]

Simple question : will this ever be possible ?

Or won't it, even in the context of a century-long term process or longer and hard-pressed ?

I need a way to give Paraguay in my TL a sea coastline at any cost, even if just a tiny length of it....

 

[Falastur]

I really can't see how it would work. There's just no logic to Paraguay receiving Mesopotamia whatsoever.

Out of curiosity, why do you need it to have a coast?

 

[john]

No.

Unless maybe...

Paraguay gets suped up, takes Uruguay and the parts of Brazil and Argentina between the Uruguay and Parana rivers, and someone classically minded names the province 'Mesopotamia'

 

[Falastur]

Could Paraguay maybe take Corrientos and Entre Rios from Argentina in the War of the Triple Alliance? It would, of course, require changing the sides a bit so they aren't so outnumbered, but it would allow them a very slim sea coast at the River Plate basin. With a bit of work they could dig it up and create a deep enough draft port for sea shipping.

I don't know enough about this period to know whether taking that land off Argentina is plausible.

 

[Admiral Matt]

By the war of the Triple Alliance it is too late for Paraguay to gain a coastline. It'd be the rough equivalent of Belgium marching to Berlin and annexing Germany's entire western border. For that to even start to happen, you can't be working with the Belgium and Germany of OTL.

Paraguay was the first of the Spanish colonies to get, and stay, independent, which does offer some opportunities. Before independence was soldiified there was no particular reason the modern borders needed to be where they are. When Argentina was undergoing it's sort-of-second revolution against Spain, it turned a blind eye to the invasion of the northeast (Uruguay) by Brazil. Now if you can get Paraguay to make its own land grab at the same time, you have something to work with.

They still couldn't take a seacoast then, but they could take Corrientes, and the rough equivalent of Chaco Province before either were fully settled. They already had the modern Misiones and Formosa provinces of course. These areas could become predominately Guarani instead of Spanish-speaking. When the borders have settled in for two or three generations, then Paraguay could possibly win itself a seacoast, provided it entered the right war.

Now holding a seacoast next to revanchist Argentina and an increasingly uncomfortable Brazil....

 

[Gonzaga]

Simple question : will this ever be possible ?

Or won't it, even in the context of a century-long term process or longer and hard-pressed ?

I need a way to give Paraguay in my TL a sea coastline at any cost, even if just a tiny length of it....

It's certainly possible, but it depends on when you POD happens. The earlier the better. Surely at the time of the Tripple Alliance War it would be impossible (as least for Entre-Rios, Corrientes might be a possibility with the right cards and A LOT of luck).

 

[Ridwan Asher]

It's certainly possible, but it depends on when you POD happens. The earlier the better. Surely at the time of the Tripple Alliance War it would be impossible (as least for Entre-Rios, Corrientes might be a possibility with the right cards and A LOT of luck).

Well, I'll accept ANY PoD after the day of Paraguayan independence though.... when would be the best for it ?

 

[Strategos' Risk]

Some other country is named Paraguay. There, problem solved.

 

[Ridwan Asher]

Some other country is named Paraguay. There, problem solved.

Humans are not sand sacks, thank you very much

 

[Admiral Brown]

It's certainly possible, but it depends on when you POD happens. The earlier the better. Surely at the time of the Tripple Alliance War it would be impossible (as least for Entre-Rios, Corrientes might be a possibility with the right cards and A LOT of luck).

Yes, exactly. Solano Lopez expected he could count on Urquiza's (Entrerríos governor) benevolent neutrality. However, Urquiza remain loyal to Buenos aires IOTL and would have been even more loyal in an ATL if he had suspected that Paraguay didn't wanted Entrerríos neutrality, let alone its independence, but was trying to anex the province he governed.

 

[Admiral Brown]

Well, I'll accept ANY PoD after the day of Paraguayan independence though.... when would be the best for it ?

Mhmm...very hard. Maybe if Entre Rìos is percieved by Buenos Aires as a serious threat to her control of the country (a threat she cannot supress by herself), she might be tempted to call Paraguay in, or at least turn a blind eye if they do, as they did when Portugal/Brazil invaded Uruguay: it was preferable to have a Brazilian Uruguay than to have Artigas (Uruguay's caudillo) gaining support in Entre Ríos, Corrientes, Santa Fe and Cordoba, and posing a serious risk to the unity of the country and the legitimacy of the (Buenos Aires-controlled) government.

If, let's say, Ramirez (Entre Ríos governor) becomes Artigas ideological successor (or a smarter caudillo replaces Ramirez), Buenos Aires, in the middle of the chaotic year of 1820 might call Paraguayan's in. It will be too much for them to get Entre Ríos... but maybe they can get Corrientes as they got Misiones. If problems go on and on, and Argentina fails to organise internally due to the rivalry between Buenos Aires and Paraná, a stronger Paraguay might eventually annex Entre Ríos with the tacit anuency of an extremly weak Buenos Aires-led Argentina (basically, Admiral Matt's scenario).


It's still very difficult, and requires a much stronger Paraguay from the very start, and a much weaker Argentina. But it's all I can think of right now...

 

[juanml82]

POD #1: The Spanish navy based at Montevideo defeats the Argentinean Navy in the independence war, securing naval superiority in the River Plate and mantaining their foothold in Montevideo.
POD #2 (optional): Jose de San Martin dies in the battle of San Lorenzo, thus the Argentinean government doesn't even consider (and reject around that time) an offensive into Chile and continues the useless efforts in the northern front (Alto Peru, current Bolivia)
POD #3: The Spanish manage to assemble a fleet and fair number of artillery pieces after Waterloo and set sail to Buenos Aires. Upon reaching the city, they disembark not with the purpose of conquering the area, but to destroy the city. Difficult, but with fronts in the east, north, west and south (the indians), Argentinean reinforcements aren't arriving in time to prevent the destruction and the death of most inhabitants. After all, the Spanish troops aren't staying, they're moving to Montevideo afterwards. They score heavy sucess against revolutionary troops in current Uruguay, breaking the resistance in the River Plate. Further sucessful campaigns from Chile and Alto Peru can finish the war in the southern cone, and the Spanish then do their best to cripple the area, as they don't have the manpower to effectively consolidate it.
This means Bolivar will have an easier time in the north, eventually driving the Spanish from Peru and pushing south. Around the late 1820's Paraguay launches an offensive towards their south, helping Bolivar's campaign, thus annexing the current Argentinean provinces of Corrientes and Entre Rios.
Still, very unlikely.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Is there any chance that Brazil could decide that it wants to be the dominant power, but realizes/decides that trying to rule Spanish speaking areas would be a morass, so picks Paraguay as it's puppet to rule the entire Spanish language areas they conquer from Argentina?

 

[Gonzaga]

Is there any chance that Brazil could decide that it wants to be the dominant power, but realizes/decides that trying to rule Spanish speaking areas would be a morass, so picks Paraguay as it's puppet to rule the entire Spanish language areas they conquer from Argentina?

Maybe it could be possible if Brazil somehow keeps Uruguay, and in order to have protection against Argentina the government favours a Paraguayan annexation of Entre-Rios and Corrientes, in order to have a buffer state there. But is still complicated. Maybe we would need also a Paraguay that includes Corrientes from its beggining. IIRC the Correntinos were much culturally closer with Asuncion than with Buenos Aires at the time.