Plausibility Check: Other cases where a country implodes and breaks-up?

oberdada

Gone Fishin'
Belgium of course

Palestine broke apart before even becoming a country when Hamas took control of the Gaza strip

Saudi-Arabia maybe?

Iraq as best is a United country in the name only.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Belgium of course

You mean during the 1950 Royal Crisis? :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Question

Palestine broke apart before even becoming a country when Hamas took control of the Gaza strip

Yes, but that was in our TL.

Saudi-Arabia maybe?

You mean a Shiite secession after all of Saudi Arabia's oil runs out?

Iraq as best is a United country in the name only.

That's due to Kurdistan being de facto independent as well as due to ISIS still barely being in control of a part of Mosul, though.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
I vaguely remember hearing that there was the off-chance that Northern Ireland could secede.

OK; however, what is the reason for this desire among some Northern Irelanders?

You wouldn't even need that. Catalonia had a vote for independence (well, technically it was about the "participation process", but that really meant independence), and 80% of the population voted for it.

Was this referendum actually an accurate reflection of the wishes of the Catalan people, though?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
I think most inhabitants of Tibet are Han Chinese now, but that certainly wasn't the case 50 years ago.

Actually, Tibet is still over 90% ethnic Tibetan even right now!

Otherwise, Russia could break up further,

Yes, both Chechnya and Ingushetia might secede, but who else?

India could break up more than it has,

You mean if ethnic tensions there become very large?

the DRC is probably bigger than makes sense but I'm as woefully ignorant about Africa as most Americans.

Which members of this forum know more about Africa, though?
 
Yes, both Chechnya and Ingushetia might secede, but who else?

Well, that independent Lapland thing could happen, maybe. The Tuva Oblast is majority Tuvans, and there are probably more such areas that are minority Russian.
 
Isn't Karelia mostly Russian nowadays, though?

Don't the Tuvans enjoy being a part of Russia, though?

Yes and yes as far as I know, but an ATL could change a lot. The Lapland would only include part of Karelia anyways, I think.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Yes and yes as far as I know, but an ATL could change a lot. The Lapland would only include part of Karelia anyways, I think.
How would Tuva become a viable independent state in this TL, though?

Also, would a Lapland consisting of only a part of Karelia be a viable independent state?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Indonesia
You mean if the Communists there take power in 1965, federalize the country Soviet-style afterwards, and then have Communism collapse in Indonesia in 1991?

Or are you thinking of some other PoD here?
 
You mean if the Communists there take power in 1965, federalize the country Soviet-style afterwards, and then have Communism collapse in Indonesia in 1991?

Or are you thinking of some other PoD here?
1) A messier independence struggle could be an earlier POD for Indonesia. In rast's TL A Shift in Priorities the former Dutch East Indies balkanizes after the Netherlands leave most of the islands. I think India is like Indonesia in that OTL, one religion predominates in both countries but India and Indonesia are still very linguistically and culturally diverse.
Indonesia - A Shift in Priorities.png
Compared to India, in my view Indonesia's more fragmented geography could more easily facilitate multisided war(s) for independence against the Netherlands and an "organic" political fragmentation of the archipelago.
2) Also, the archipelago's proximity to the Strait of Malacca may be incentive for foreign power(s) to "artificially" divide the nation into a series of protectorates the way the British ruled the Persian Gulf Arab States in close proximity to the Strait of Hormuz as a series of smaller entities OTL.
3.1) Would it be plausible for instability from a more extensive fracturing of the breakup of the Malaysian federation (OTL Singapore seceded in 1965) to spill over into Indonesia?
3.2) Would a prosperous, independent Singapore have the capability or the motive to divide the Indonesia islands and ethnic groups against each other in order to prevent a strong, united Indonesia or Malaysia with the capability to threaten shipping in the strait of Malacca?
 
Ethiopia may be another candidate for an ATL where a country breaks up into smaller states. Viable language-based entities may form based on communities of Afar, Oromo, Somali, and Amhara speakers.
Screen Shot 2017-03-12 at 11.01.12 AM.png
(Image source)
Ethiopia's religious divides based on Ethiopian Orthodox Christianity, Protestant Christianity, and Sunni Islam, similar to OTL Yugoslavia, may help for the basis for Ethiopia fragmenting into multiple nation-states.
Ethiopia's relatively recent conquests of non-Amharic speaking regions form the potential for a POD involving a Russian Civil War-style imperial collapse and the emergence of several nation-states (Poland, Ukraine, Baltic States, etc). Ethiopia is Africa's Austria-Hungary.
ethiopia_expansion.jpg
PODs:
1) A more disastrous 1961-1991 Eritrean War of Independence makes Haile Selassie's regime increasingly unpopular, and civil war breaks out in addition to the conflict in Eritrea.
2) Somali victory in the 1977-1978 Ogaden War results in Somali gaining the eastern, Somali-speaking region of Ethiopia. Somalia-backed rebels from other ethnic groups rebel against the Derg military junta.
3) Eritrea gains independence before 1991, but the Derg takes power as OTL. Ogaden war goes as OTL. Ethiopian leader Mengistu Haile Marian launches a war of conquest against Eritrea or Djibouti to gain sea access à la Iraq v. Kuwait. Then, a Gulf War analogue takes place against Mengistu Haile Marian's People's Democratic Republic of Ethiopia. The regime loses power in a death of a thousand cuts by various ethnic groups against the Amharic-dominated government . This would require a POD involving Eritrean independence happening earlier than OTL.
4) The OTL 1991 transitional government led by Meles Zenawi (Ethiopian PM 1995-2012) falls apart with a POD that removes Zenawi's leadership. The
Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (OTL present-day ruling coalition) fragments into its ethnic Oromo, Amhara, and Tigray regional parties. One or more of the parties may push for their regions's independence as a peaceful breakup in a czecho-slovak style velvet divorce. Alternatively, a more chaotic series of separatists conflicts against the
politically dominant Tigre community results that is less of a break-up and more of an implosion.
 
Nigeria during the Biafran war is a major contender. Although i will admit I'm not sure just how far the dissolution would go, and if it would have kicked off a rash of African country's breaking up as it would set a precedent that the border could be redrawn from the one that the colonial powers imposed. It only has to happen once and then Africa could get very interesting very fast, especially in the cold war context.
 
How would Tuva become a viable independent state in this TL, though?

Also, would a Lapland consisting of only a part of Karelia be a viable independent state?

Tuva is very unlikely to ever gain independence. It does have permission to post a referendum to gain independence, but most of the population is massively in favor of staying a part of Russia. The area wouldn't be very viable being independent anyway, they lack the foreign capital ability, and would lose on a large amount of internal trade and tourism from their former mother nation.

Lapland also isn't all that likely, it would be much more likely to have this nation want to re-join Finland then be independent (Finland itself really wouldn't be interested in such a thing, would cost far far far too much to integrate the territory). Karelia also is still rather poor at the moment, it's slowly been increasing but urban decay is still common place, the collapse of the USSR still affects that area hard.

Also, could you please reply to people in bulk, rather then posting two or three replies? Just makes it a bit more clean.
 

oberdada

Gone Fishin'
Germany in 1919 - rather than ratifying Versailles the Government and parliament resigns.
Nobody has an authority to call for new elections and so eventually the power transfers to the states.

Unlikely, but Scheidemann resigned and advised for everybody else to do the same, so that no German would sign that shameful peace treaty.
 
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