Plausibility Check: Other cases where a country implodes and breaks-up?

CaliGuy

Banned
In our TL, Austria-Hungary, the Ottoman Empire, the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia, and Czechoslovakia imploded and broke up.

Anyway, my question here is this--exactly which other countries, if any, could realistically implode and break-up in a similar manner to the countries listed above?

Any thoughts on this?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Also, bonus points if the country involved is a multinational state (like the Soviet Union was) and gets broken up into independent nation-states. :)
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Also, bonus points if the country involved is a multinational state (like the Soviet Union was) and gets broken up into independent nation-states. :)
Plus the successor states of the country involved need to avoid sharing Somaliland's fate--as in, years or decades of independence without international recognition.
 
China COULD break up, but it would be much more complicated. The worsening environment and the growing pollution will soon take its toll because China is advancing too quickly. In words of "the Lorax": "But sometimes I think progress progresses too fast!" The states that would likely receive independence would be Tibet and East Turkestan (or Xinjiang or Sinkiang). Democracy would flourish through the rest of China, but then, the damage would already been done.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
China COULD break up, but it would be much more complicated. The worsening environment and the growing pollution will soon take its toll because China is advancing too quickly. In words of "the Lorax": "But sometimes I think progress progresses too fast!" The states that would likely receive independence would be Tibet and East Turkestan (or Xinjiang or Sinkiang). Democracy would flourish through the rest of China, but then, the damage would already been done.
It states here that only 29% of Tibetans actually want independence, though:

https://blog.hiddenharmonies.org/2012/04/12/does-the-west-care-about-what-real-tibetans-think/

However, independence for Xinjiang--or, specifically, independence for the western Tarim Basin--is probably possible.

Also, though, what other countries can you think of for this? :)
 
India is an obvious possible example; it is, after all, quite internally diverse and there are relatively strong regional identities in many places. Right now there's no real risk of a break-up, but the elements are there if it encounters prolonged rough waters.
 
It states here that only 29% of Tibetans actually want independence, though:

https://blog.hiddenharmonies.org/2012/04/12/does-the-west-care-about-what-real-tibetans-think/

However, independence for Xinjiang--or, specifically, independence for the western Tarim Basin--is probably possible.

Also, though, what other countries can you think of for this? :)

I think most inhabitants of Tibet are Han Chinese now, but that certainly wasn't the case 50 years ago. Otherwise, Russia could break up further, India could break up more than it has, the DRC is probably bigger than makes sense but I'm as woefully ignorant about Africa as most Americans.
 
I had a Canadian history professor in college who always said Canada was one major crisis away from falling apart...not sure how much I buy into that though.
 
To understand stresses within Canada, read "The Nine Nations of North America" published during the 1980s. The book divides Canada into six separate regions: Maritimes, Quebec, Rust Belt, Prairies, West Coast and Arctic.
The Maritime Provinces (NB, PEI, NS and Newfoundland officially, but eastern Quebec has more in common with the Maritimes than Quebec City) are the most diverse with centuries-old towns that are distinctly French or Catholic or Irish or German or Scottish or United Empire Loyalist, etc. It is only long-term slow economies that prevent Maritimes ethnic groups from rebelling against the federal government that never seems to understand their unique circumstances.
 
To understand stresses within Canada, read "The Nine Nations of North America" published during the 1980s. The book divides Canada into six separate regions: Maritimes, Quebec, Rust Belt, Prairies, West Coast and Arctic.
The Maritime Provinces (NB, PEI, NS and Newfoundland officially, but eastern Quebec has more in common with the Maritimes than Quebec City) are the most diverse with centuries-old towns that are distinctly French or Catholic or Irish or German or Scottish or United Empire Loyalist, etc. It is only long-term slow economies that prevent Maritimes ethnic groups from rebelling against the federal government that never seems to understand their unique circumstances.

Sounds like amazing timeline fodder for somebody who knows more about this.
 
Iraq and Syria could both fall apart. In the case of Syria it's somewhat de facto broken up (although how long that lasts is unclear), and there's constant talk of breaking Iraq up into three states.
 
I think most inhabitants of Tibet are Han Chinese now, but that certainly wasn't the case 50 years ago. Otherwise, Russia could break up further, India could break up more than it has, the DRC is probably bigger than makes sense but I'm as woefully ignorant about Africa as most Americans.

A Chinese census in 2010 found that Tibet is 90% ethnic Tibetans, although its uncertain what the exact methodology moved. Maybe they count many Han that live there for long periods as "temporary migrants" or something.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Spain. Didnt Catalonia have a vote a couple of years ago? Then you have the Basque region.
You mean such as by having Juan Carlos be a screw-up rather than a decent King and thus keep power for himself and provoke the Spanish people into a revolution which results in Spain breaking up?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Iraq and Syria could both fall apart. In the case of Syria it's somewhat de facto broken up (although how long that lasts is unclear), and there's constant talk of breaking Iraq up into three states.
Iraq seems too strong to fall apart, though; I mean, it has withstood both al-Qaeda and ISIS.

Also, as for Syria, didn't the French try breaking it up in the 1920s and mostly fail?
 
Other than Scotland, though, is anyone else likely to leave the U.K.? Or would a rump U.K. consisting of England, Wales, and Northern Ireland remain?[/QUOI vaguely remember hearing that there was the off-chance that Northern Ireland could secede following Brexit.
I vaguely remember hearing that there was the off-chance that Northern Ireland could secede.
You mean such as by having Juan Carlos be a screw-up rather than a decent King and thus keep power for himself and provoke the Spanish people into a revolution which results in Spain breaking up?
You wouldn't even need that. Catalonia had a vote for independence (well, technically it was about the "participation process", but that really meant independence), and 80% of the population voted for it.
 
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