Plausibility check on my grandpa's semi-coherent morphine-induced ramblings

My Grandpa just had surgery, and when he woke up he was drugged on morphine. When we turned on the TV, President Obama was giving a speech of some kind and Grandpa asked us who it was. The doctors said that we should expect confusion, so we explained that that was Barack Obama, the 44th President of the United States. My Grandpa, who has always been politically knowledgable, was shocked and asked us how many years he had been out for. We told him that he had only been asleep for a few hours and that it was still November 6 2009. At this point he kindly pointed out that we must be mistaken, since when he went to sleep the President had been Al Gore, and that he was the 45th President, not the 44th. As an alternate history fan, I was naturally curious about what events had led to this. I decided to quiz him on how Al Gore had come to be elected President in 2008. He explained the history of the last three elections, and I eventually figured out that he was getting 2000-2008 and 1960-1968 confused. The history he described was as follows:

2000: George W. Bush defeats Al Gore in one of the closest elections in US history. Bush won both the popular vote and the electoral college by very slim margins.

2003: George W. Bush is assassinated by a gunman in Boston, Massechusettes. Conspiracy theories abound, and Dick Cheney is sworn in as President.

2004: The Cheney/McCain ticket wins a landslide victory over "that pinko commie leftist" John Kerry.

2008: Chaos in the Republican party. President Cheney tries to run for re-election, but the upstart Ron Paul wins in New Hampshire on an anti-war ticket. Apparently there was no surge ITTL, so Iraq had deteriorated into another Vietnam. Following this, Cheney drops out, and both Jeb Bush and John McCain jump into the race. Ron Paul fades out of the race without Cheney to attack. Bush appears to have a lead, but is gunned down following his victory in the Mississippi primary. Vice President McCain wins the Republican nomination. Meanwhile, Al Gore easily wins the Democratic nomination, and goes on to defeat McCain in the general election.

This seemed like pretty in-depth thinking for a guy just out of surgery, but it struck me as an interesting ATL. Is it plausible for history to repeat itself like this?
 
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Well, Cheney might not pick a maverick like McCain, and Paul would stay in the race, even if Cheney dropped out (He'd disagree with both Bush and McCain on more than just the war, which both supported...), but this is still a great idea...
 
Wow. that may not be the most plausible timeline, but it is very interesting, and actually makes a fair bit of sense. Some quibbles (Would mccain be vp, would kerry get the nod, etc...), but it is a reasonably coherent timeline (moreso than a few floating around here), and could possibly work if developed more.

Not bad for a drug-induced halucination.

20003: George W. Bush is assassinated by a gunman in Boston, Massechusettes. Conspiracy theories abound, and Dick Cheney is sworn in as President.

One wonders, however, when the 22nd amendment was repealed.
 
By "gunned down," do you mean Jeb Bush is murdered too?

Two Bushes being assassinated that close together? Yes, I know it happened with the Kennedys, but I would think both the Secret Service and the Bush family would have learned from that situation.

It might be more realistic to have Jeb Bush losing somehow, perhaps over his Hispanic wife.

(The S.C. primary could be a good place for that, given the "illegitimate black child" stuff that dogged McCain and the anti-Mormon stuff that dogged Romney.)
 
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