Plausibility Check: Nuclear Zaire?

I once made an AHC about giving as many nations nuclear weapons as possible. Here is one of the more exotic entries:
This is a quite exotic and out of the field suggestion but could it have been possible for Zaire to acquire nuclear weapons? They did have a small-scale nuclear energy program and if Mobutu had shown more interest towards it, he could have just started to throw more money in it. If more countries had nuclear weapons ITTL, it might have been also easier for the country to buy technology and expertice from elsewhere too.

Would it even be possible for Zaire to acquire nuclear weapons? How would this change Africa and the world?
 
I once made an AHC about giving as many nations nuclear weapons as possible. Here is one of the more exotic entries:


Would it even be possible for Zaire to acquire nuclear weapons? How would this change Africa and the world?
Zaire already has uranium ore mines. That's the easiest part.

Problem is, a nuclear program is expensive as all hell, not to mention the USA, USSR, and their allies tend to keep close tabs on nuclear secrets and nuclear scientists, so Zaire trying to shop around for uranium refinement and enrichment hardware would draw a lot of attention. The UN would be interested almost immediately, and would demand to send observers to ensure Zaire's nuclear program remains for peaceful purposes.

Zaire would have a lot more territory to hide its reactors than Iraq did with the Osirak nuclear reactor, but the start-up would undoubtedly draw attention, not least because a nuclear-armed Zaire would be an excuse for the nations of central/sub-Saharan Africa to start its own nuclear arms race.
 
Zaire already has uranium ore mines. That's the easiest part.

Problem is, a nuclear program is expensive as all hell, not to mention the USA, USSR, and their allies tend to keep close tabs on nuclear secrets and nuclear scientists, so Zaire trying to shop around for uranium refinement and enrichment hardware would draw a lot of attention. The UN would be interested almost immediately, and would demand to send observers to ensure Zaire's nuclear program remains for peaceful purposes.

Zaire would have a lot more territory to hide its reactors than Iraq did with the Osirak nuclear reactor, but the start-up would undoubtedly draw attention, not least because a nuclear-armed Zaire would be an excuse for the nations of central/sub-Saharan Africa to start its own nuclear arms race.

And you just guaranteed that apartheid south Africa will keep their nukes. That is not going to end well
 
Zaire already has uranium ore mines. That's the easiest part.

Problem is, a nuclear program is expensive as all hell, not to mention the USA, USSR, and their allies tend to keep close tabs on nuclear secrets and nuclear scientists, so Zaire trying to shop around for uranium refinement and enrichment hardware would draw a lot of attention. The UN would be interested almost immediately, and would demand to send observers to ensure Zaire's nuclear program remains for peaceful purposes.

Zaire would have a lot more territory to hide its reactors than Iraq did with the Osirak nuclear reactor, but the start-up would undoubtedly draw attention, not least because a nuclear-armed Zaire would be an excuse for the nations of central/sub-Saharan Africa to start its own nuclear arms race.

Pakistan managed to do it and the guy (Ameer Khan) who developed their bomb was actively selling the technology and knowhow for decades before being caught. His customers? North Korea, Iran, Iraq, Libya, possibly Egypt.
 
And you just guaranteed that apartheid south Africa will keep their nukes. That is not going to end well
Pretty much. Zaire is going to be the bullseye for a lot of South African nukes, and they've turned from just two nations on the continent to regional nemeses. It's going to turn ugly real quick.

Plus, Zaire isn't exactly a stable state. You want a nation with nukes undergoing a civil war? Even if they don't use it, the temptation to sell those things to some really nasty customers is overwhelming for a corrupt warlord.
Pakistan managed to do it and the guy (Ameer Khan) who developed their bomb was actively selling the technology and knowhow for decades before being caught. His customers? North Korea, Iran, Iraq, Libya, possibly Egypt.
True, maybe the Zaire govt. can get some help starting up. Problem is, Ameer Khan's nukes aren't exactly efficient, and need more uranium than they should, so the program is going to be more expensive pound for pound.
 

Khanzeer

Banned
getting plans for nukes is one thing but

1 - how will they deliver these nukes ?

2- who will be willing to sell them the delivery methods ( they had 7 x mirage 5 in OTL in 70s 80s)

3- Can the Congolese society domestically produce the accessories and core of skilled technicians and scientists to sustain this program ?

4-If they want to strike aparthaid SA or rhodesia that is hundreds of miles away , how will they get them there ?
 
An idea is give mobutu more motivation to actually continue RUNNING the country, then turn him into an African Kim I’ll Sung.
 
Pakistan managed to do it and the guy (Ameer Khan) who developed their bomb was actively selling the technology and knowhow for decades before being caught. His customers? North Korea, Iran, Iraq, Libya, possibly Egypt.

The problem with a nuclear weapons program isn't the technology (basic principles are well-known, precise numbers can often be found in the public domain and if not, competent engineers can figure it out in not too much time).

The problem is fissile material. Either enriching uranium or breeding and purifying weapons-grade plutonium are both super expensive.
 
Pakistan managed to do it and the guy (Ameer Khan)
Irony on that that allot of needed data came from Belgium
A worker of Nuclear research center Mol told me that the Pakistani exchange students copy/scann every documents from center archive and mailed it Home.
(similar thing happen at other Nuclear research center and universities worldwide with Pakistani exchange students)

Similar could happen with Kongolese exchange students, but in 1970s it's microfilm spy-photos

Back to Topic
biggest issue are those

- Money - has Mobutu billion of dollars for the Bomb R&D program ?
- Engineering - has Zaire the equipment and engineers to build nuclear reactor ?
- Delivery system - has Zaire Bombers, missile to get a Nuke to target ? (ORTAG rocket not count as missile system)

let assume Mobutu got that right and start his Nuke program, once they announce Zaire will build a nuclear Reactor
the CIA, KGB and others intelligence service will show interest on that program and will intervene...
 
- Money - has Mobutu billion of dollars for the Bomb R&D program ?
- Engineering - has Zaire the equipment and engineers to build nuclear reactor ?
- Delivery system - has Zaire Bombers, missile to get a Nuke to target ? (ORTAG rocket not count as missile system)

Zaire did have a nuclear reactor - two of them in fact - and it would be possible to skim enough money from the various mining operations to finance a shoestring weapons development program. If there was enough cash for Mobutu to steal several billion for himself, there would be enough to hire some engineers and build a bomb.

The problem, from Mobutu's standpoint, is precisely that - money going to a bomb isn't going into his pocket. We're talking about a dictator who wouldn't spend money on roads. A nuclear program would also annoy the foreign patrons who kept him in power.

I can just about imagine Mobutu thinking about building nukes as a vanity project - and if he did, I could easily see him dismissing concerns about a delivery system and saying "we'll worry about that later" - but carrying through with it would be another story. Maybe in a super-Cold War scenario where the US is throwing military aid at every right-wing country in sight and not much caring what they do with it, but other than that, I don't see it.
 

SwampTiger

Banned
The issue is a stable government. Once that is developed, nuclear power plants would be a huge boon to Zaire's development. Relatively cheap electric power would allow mining and industrial growth throughout the country, reducing the problems inherent with the multicultural population.

UN/International oversight would be a requirement.
 

Vuu

Banned
There's an feedback loop of development costs in tropical countries. A nuclear program demands a powerful economy which demands well developed infrastructure and you get the idea. It's why Brazil and Greece are having a hard time - Brazil is tropical and it's main part is mountainous as hell, while Greece is just mountainous as hell. Cue infrastructure costs being higher, which results in less of it, which results in diminished state strength which results in weaker economy and it goes on and on.

For Zaire to get to that level would be a feat under OTL technological levels - cutting all of that rainforest to make roads, making towns in the jungle, reactors, fertilizing the leaching-prone tropical soils... Even the US or China would have a hard time doing all that properly. The only one who did is North Korea, who due to sanctions must force-develop itself, with the effects we see, and even then the quality is not as good.
 
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