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How likely is it that the Gang of Four could have decided not to break with Labour in 1981 but rather to sit and wait for Foot to lead the Party to inevitable defeat and then try and mount a challenge for the Leadership? How could British politics have developed in the 1980's without the influence of the SDP?
Also if the split didn't happen, can anyone see circumstances in which David Owen might become so disillusioned with Labour that he could defect to the Tories?