Plausibility check: No Deutsche Einheit

Goldstein

Banned
I would like to know your thoughts about this scenario:

Would it be possible, preferably with a 1990 POD, that the German Democratic Republic still goes democratic, and the Berlin Wall is still tore down, but somehow the two-plus-four-agreement fails or doesn't take place, and East Germany survives as an independent country? If so, what would be necessary for this to happen, and what do you think would be the consecuences in the middle and long term?
 
I would like to know your thoughts about this scenario:

Would it be possible, preferably with a 1990 POD, that the German Democratic Republic still goes democratic, and the Berlin Wall is still tore down, but somehow the two-plus-four-agreement fails or doesn't take place, and East Germany survives as an independent country? If so, what would be necessary for this to happen, and what do you think would be the consecuences in the middle and long term?

Uhm ...

Maybe Kohl accepts a national unity government with the socialdemocrats, and this cools down the process while the social costs of transition make themselves clearer .. this also paves the way for a socialist / green victory in former DDR, and Eastern Germany undergoes a slovenian-like "soft-transition", joining the EU in the first 2000's
 

Redbeard

Banned
The problem is, that short of the wall and massive West German investment, East Germany will collapse very soon as people leave by the millions - no matter what kind of government rule East Germany. Would probably lead to an anexation less elegant than the OTL one, don't see why the BRD should just pay and get no re-unification.

If EU is willing to pay a major part of the reconstruction it may keep some kind of DDR alive for some time, but I frankly doubt if EU would be willing to pay annually in the region of 100 billion € for that.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/0,1518,373639,00.html

Regards

Steffen Redbeard
 
The problem is, that short of the wall and massive West German investment, East Germany will collapse very soon as people leave by the millions - no matter what kind of government rule East Germany. Would probably lead to an anexation less elegant than the OTL one, don't see why the BRD should just pay and get no re-unification.

If EU is willing to pay a major part of the reconstruction it may keep some kind of DDR alive for some time, but I frankly doubt if EU would be willing to pay annually in the region of 100 billion € for that.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/0,1518,373639,00.html

Regards

Steffen Redbeard

I would agree. However, I suppose that if, as Manfr points out, we see reunification delayed by a national unity government then the euphoria to unite will start to cool off in the west. Perhaps we could see a confederate structure develop or a customs union but with the DDR retaining its nominal independence and institutions. The West Germans could start off by saying that they will pay for reconstruction and economic aid but only with large costs born by the EU as well.

Mmmm, I suppose in such a case one could see the old Warsaw Pact nations (sans Russia) retaining a fair degree of co-operation and a more gradual modernisation program rather than simply embracing neo-liberalism and the dream of joining the EU.
 
The problem is, that short of the wall and massive West German investment, East Germany will collapse very soon as people leave by the millions - no matter what kind of government rule East Germany. Would probably lead to an anexation less elegant than the OTL one, don't see why the BRD should just pay and get no re-unification.

If EU is willing to pay a major part of the reconstruction it may keep some kind of DDR alive for some time, but I frankly doubt if EU would be willing to pay annually in the region of 100 billion € for that.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/0,1518,373639,00.html

Regards

Steffen Redbeard
One of the problems, of course, was the BDR chose to accept the Ostmark at par in the united Germany.

If the Ostmark had been valued at, oh say .5 or .3 Deutschmarks, which it was closer to in value, IIRC, Eastern industry could have remained competitive longer.

Sure, you'd get a huge drain of Ossis fleeing west for better paying jobs, if they had the skills, but you'd have far fewer factory closings, etc., and it would be easier to bring them up to standard.

That's, of course, assuming a merger which is against OP.


Hmm... If they stay separate, the Wessis can't keep the Ossis out (unless they repeal all their nationality laws - if a Ukrainian with 1 German grandfather who doesn't even speak the language can have BRD nationality, how can they keep out Honest-to-God Germans?)

With, e.g. Poles and Czechs, they couldn't all flee west (until after joining the EU, at which point there wasn't much point, as their economies had stablised then). With Ossis, they could. It would be a disaster, I'd think.

So, I don't see anyway to avoid re-unification, in practice.
 
This is a little off-topic but, why does Moldova exist?
It seems like much more of a rump country than the DDR ever was and it has survived so I find it difficult to believe that German unification is inevitable.

(Then again, I'm the crazy guy who wonders why people who believe that the water beast which must remain nameless or a Japanese victory are impossible even with prehistoric PODs even bother to visit a forum dedicated to imagining a world other than the one we now have.)
 
About two years ago, there was a similar question, in this thread:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=68377

I tried to meet the challenge with a kind of timeline, in the same thread. The POD took place some time before the federal elections in 1980 in West Germany, in this post:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showpost.php?p=1197748&postcount=23
I continued the timeline until after the first government resulting from free elections in East Germany was formed, but I did not finish it. Sorry! :eek::eek:
 
This is a little off-topic but, why does Moldova exist?
It seems like much more of a rump country than the DDR ever was and it has survived so I find it difficult to believe that German unification is inevitable.

(Then again, I'm the crazy guy who wonders why people who believe that the water beast which must remain nameless or a Japanese victory are impossible even with prehistoric PODs even bother to visit a forum dedicated to imagining a world other than the one we now have.)

East Germany does not have a separatis region where all the industry is located, another region which threatend to leave and, 30% of population non-german and nearly six decades of Soviet Rule, convincing them that they are separate from West Germans plus Russification both Soviet and Tsarist.
 

Goldstein

Banned
About two years ago, there was a similar question, in this thread:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=68377

I tried to meet the challenge with a kind of timeline, in the same thread. The POD took place some time before the federal elections in 1980 in West Germany, in this post:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showpost.php?p=1197748&postcount=23
I continued the timeline until after the first government resulting from free elections in East Germany was formed, but I did not finish it. Sorry! :eek::eek:

Hey, that's a very interesting read, thanks a lot for sharing! Too bad that it is uncomplete... :(
 
I'm no expert on Germany, by any means, but if they didn't reunite, given the difficulty inherent in East Germany surviving as a unit, would it be possible/plausible for the East German provinces to deunify, leaving us with Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, Thuringia, Mecklenburg, and Brandenburg as either individual countries or small, two-province nations? (Mecklenburg-Brandenburg, and a greater Saxony encompassing the other three, or example.) I suspect it wouldn't work, having East Germany Balkanize like that, but I'm curious if it might happen.
 
There surely can't be a reason for such Balkanization. Perhaps a TL that involves reunification to be delayed (maybe until mid or late 90s, possibly even very early noughties) might be within the boundaries of plausibility, but I don't think that a TL where they stay separate in the long term sounds realistic.
 
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