Plausibility Check: Lumumbist victory in Congo and "United" Congo

What was the chance of a lumumbist victory in congo, either through Lumumba himself or the free republic of congo? What are the consequences? Belgian-supported Katanga gets propped up by the west to preserve a partial hold on the region's mineral resources? Also, considering congo-brazzaville had a likely-minded leftist government since 1963, what would be the possibilities of a unification with lumumbist congo-kinshasa? Were/are there any movements iotl that support the concept of a "united congo"?
 
As far as plausibility goes, I'd say pretty slim for an outright Lumumbist victory , considering Lumumba would have get support directly from the Soviet Union if he wanted a chance at competing with Western Interests. (Something I think he'd be dubious about) Moreover, he'd almost certainly have to get his hands dirty cleaning out his traitorous bureaucracy and post-colonial military command structure, again something I think he'd drag his feet on.
His "positive neutralism" and "African nationalism above all else" wasn't a fit for the bi-polor spectrum of post-colonial international politics.

As for a general Republic I defer to others who might know more.
 
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