Plausibility Check: LBJ declines to run, 1964

Not in my opinion. Johnson wanted the White House too much to give it up after barely a year. He had legislative goals still unmet and an ego still unsatisfied.

I don't think he appreciated the quagmire that Vietnam would become. In that respect he was misled, I believe, by the unwarranted optimism and arrogance of McNamara and company. It was the strain over Vietnam that most affected him physically IMO.
 
Another major factor would be that declining to run would hand RFK the presidency on a silver platter, which LBJ would never permit. Undoubtedly he would seek the nomination if LBJ withdrew from contention. Whether Humphrey would run is debatable because 1960 is still fresh in most delegates' minds.

Regarding McNamara: LBJ kept the Kennedy entourage on as part self-validation, not just political but intellectual. He worshipped McNamara until he began softening in 1966-7 and then returned to the camp of his close friend RFK in 1967.
 

Cook

Banned
Is this plausible given LBJ's health concerns?

Were they that significant in ’64, for a man of his age and lifestyle in that period I would have thought his health was about average wasn’t it?

Wasn’t it later that his health suffered severely?

He’s on the long list of people I want to read more about, I get the feeling his reputation suffers most from not just not being JFK.

 
Lady Bird bought a funeral dress in '65 in case LBJ should die suddenly. His health suffered in later years but it was never great.

Re reputation: that was the media's doing but also the liberals. As one of Johnson's advisers put it: "he's more liberal than the most liberal of them but they never saw him as a liberal." It can be put down to cultural snobbery, summed up by Jackie Kennedy as "Mr. and Mrs. Cornpone". The closest comparison would be George W. Bush- except Bush has an Ivy League education that LBJ did not. Both were as wealthy and patrician as their Democratic rivals (RFK, Kerry) but were seen as rubes by liberals.

Also, liberals loved LBJ's New Dealism but allowed their cultural prejudices to take over. By contrast, they wanted to be in RFK's social circle but they were ideologically incompatible (both on economic and especially sociocultural issues) and Kennedy saw them as insincere hypocrites in their concern about the poor.
 
LBJ might reconsider his ego if a heart attack comes along to put things in perspective for him. I definitely see this as plausible.
 
Then he'll have to endorse his arch-nemesis for the Presidency. I'm loving the TV image of the President's facial expression. It probably looks like Cheney's when he had some choice words for Pat Leahy. :D
 
Would there have been any way that RFK could've convinced LBJ that he isn't running? LBJ then formally announces he isn't running but then RFK announces he is? Shady yes, but hey, that's politics.
 
Umm... no. RFK wasn't a great liar nor would he be convincing. Not from someone as ambitious for the WH as the Clintons combined. He was more inclined to blunt honesty. He'd just say: "I have the emotions around Jack and I have Jackie in the audience, plus my own emotional passion..." I know it sounds cynical (almost Nixonian) for Bobby but he did do this IOTL when LBJ phoned him at Hyannis on the July Fourth weekend in '64. They were just exchanging greetings but then LBJ got into political matters. Bobby was annoyed but didn't want to hang up on the POTUS. So he handed the phone to Jackie. For obvious reasons LBJ couldn't hang up on her. That conversation confirmed Jackie's impression of LBJ as Uncle Cornpone, and LBJ's hatred for RFK increased at least 20%. In Johnson's view, Bobby used a grieving widow to score the RL version of 2000 Internet points.
 
Umm... no. RFK wasn't a great liar nor would he be convincing. Not from someone as ambitious for the WH as the Clintons combined. He was more inclined to blunt honesty. He'd just say: "I have the emotions around Jack and I have Jackie in the audience, plus my own emotional passion..." I know it sounds cynical (almost Nixonian) for Bobby but he did do this IOTL when LBJ phoned him at Hyannis on the July Fourth weekend in '64. They were just exchanging greetings but then LBJ got into political matters. Bobby was annoyed but didn't want to hang up on the POTUS. So he handed the phone to Jackie. For obvious reasons LBJ couldn't hang up on her. That conversation confirmed Jackie's impression of LBJ as Uncle Cornpone, and LBJ's hatred for RFK increased at least 20%. In Johnson's view, Bobby used a grieving widow to score the RL version of 2000 Internet points.


Ah. Jesus.
 
Another major factor would be that declining to run would hand RFK the presidency on a silver platter, which LBJ would never permit.

Was RFK really ready to be President in 1964? By that point he would have only been the attorney general, and you've said yourself that presidential appointed jobs don't by in large lead to the presidency. Plus, he would have only been 39 at the time.
 
It depends what you mean by "ready". Quals-wise- yes, the title belies his true rule as DPOTUS. Quite similar to Nixon's '60 dilemma. They both did *a lot* more than their titles suggested but most of it was classified or not well publicized. The most significant change is the ideological evolution, which might happen a bit later than OTL but will happen by 1966-7 at the latest. With JFK's death, it will happen- just a matter of timing. With regards to age- that cropped up even in 1968. Nixon wasn't talking about Humphrey with his jibes about "maturity and experience". It's not so much an age thing as being "hyperthyroidic" in one friendly journalist's estimation. Nor is that a bad thing. He can talk about Madison and Jefferson being even younger when they rose to prominence.

Whanz: I know. And no, Jackie didn't mind doing that either. In the audio recording you can clearly hear the annoyance in his voice though the tones are entirely civil, even mildly friendly when their vacation itinerary was the subject. But to translate into Nixon-speak: "can't a guy enjoy his vacation without taking a work-related call from his boss on July fucking Fourth? That goddamn asshole!"
 
With Lyndon being as Politically ambitious, something major would have to happen to to make him reconsider running. Maybe hea has another massive heart attack in the lead up to the nomination, and doctors declare that he won't survive another term...But even then Id imagine LBJ saying "To Hell with 'em, Im the goddamned President of the United States!":D
 
Perhaps- but if it happens after the convention then HHH becomes President, much like FDR/Truman in '44 IOTL. Also- LBJ forgets to reschedule RFK's speech. Since he's understandably in quite a mournful mood (nearly tearing up on stage, crying backstage in a stairwell afterwards) the delegates might, on the wave of emotion, follow him. After all- one of his personal and political traits was a sort of emotional communion. Closest parallel, though less genuine, would be Bill Clinton's "I feel your pain" charm of '92. He also sharply reminded everyone of his political emotions with "pay no worship to the garish sun." In Governator speak: "Ah'll be back, very, very soon."
 
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