Your title says invade Australia, your text says conquer Australia. What is the purpose of the invasion? The conquest of the entire continent of Australia? Impossible. Or to force the Australian government to sue for peace?
Plausibility Check:Japanese invasion of Australia
- Thread starter King of the Uzbeks
- Start date
Your title says invade Australia, your text says conquer Australia. What is the purpose of the invasion? The conquest of the entire continent of Australia? Impossible. Or to force the Australian government to sue for peace?
the whole Japanese operations in the Pacific, from Dec 1941-April 1942 used a grand total of 12 divisions, which was all they could spare from china. There is no further reserve to even aid australia, much less try to invade it. Those 12 divisions performed miracles as it is, siezing Wake, Guam, The Phillipines, Malaysia, Singapore, Dutch East Indies, the Solomons, Burma and half of New Guinea. But no, they don't have enough to invade India or Australia at this point
OTL Dec 1941-April 1942 is what would be called a Japan Wank of ASB proportions if proposed on this board
OTL Dec 1941-April 1942 is what would be called a Japan Wank of ASB proportions if proposed on this board
That argument is exactly what the Japanese Army used to reject the proposal for an invasion of Australia. They weren't willing to spare divisions from China, or Manchuria-the latter because they fully expected the German Summer Offensive in 1942 to finish off the Soviets, and they could then occupy the Soviet Far East.
The IJA didn't divert much force from Asia in the first 10 months of the war is not the same as the IJA couldn't have done so. Because either from Asia or from the UFO's came the 500,000 (or so) troops that the IJA poured into Solomons-Lae from November 1942 into 1943.
Australia was beyond Japan's capacity to capture. Doesn't mean they couldn't have made a go of it.
NorthernFiend
Banned
If the Japanese seize the French fleet .. and Gibraltar (Operation SeaWallaby) this is totally on
The Japanese certainly had the capability to seize Darwin and its immediate hinterland if Port Moresby had fallen, but to get to the actually important bits of Australia would have required far more of everything; shipping, troops, supplies, etc.; than the Japanese had available.
Call it whatever you want. If the IJA pours in troops into Australia, so does the USA and Britain. The Japanese will lose.
NorthernFiend
Banned
Unless the Japanese magic up some 88's, Panzer IIIs and a history of armoured maneuver warfare PLUS unlimited logistics advancing beyond the coast will be a problem.
The 2 pounder on a Matilda II won't do a lot to a Panzer IV but it will make a real mess of a bicycle.
The 2 pounder on a Matilda II won't do a lot to a Panzer IV but it will make a real mess of a bicycle.
They might have been able to seize Darwin and hold it for some short time. Towards what end, though? Militarist Japan doesn't benefit from holding Darwin, it only benefits from making it difficult for the enemy to stage through that port, and that can be done just as well with bombing. No matter how much any PoDs increase Militarist Japan's military power and logistics, I think that's the most you could realistically get--much heavier bombing or even naval shelling, combined with efforts to cut the sea lanes between Australia and the Western hemisphere. Even if they have the power to stage an invasion, they still need a reason to actually do so. Plans for the invasion of Australia existed, but plans exist for everything. These plans were never seriously discussed or considered. The problem isn't that invading Australia is beyond their grasp (which is was, and again, they knew this), but that it wouldn't benefit them even if they magically pulled it off.
Therefore, I think the first step of any discussion of a Japanese invasion of Australia requires as a first step a PoD detailing not how they can do it, but why they are even trying. Just saying "they decide to invade even though they know they won't be able to capture, much less hold, anything of value, and they know they wouldn't benefit even if they did hold it" is ASB, you know?
Therefore, I think the first step of any discussion of a Japanese invasion of Australia requires as a first step a PoD detailing not how they can do it, but why they are even trying. Just saying "they decide to invade even though they know they won't be able to capture, much less hold, anything of value, and they know they wouldn't benefit even if they did hold it" is ASB, you know?
First off, Pearl Harbour was at the ragged edge of range for the IJN. They were carrying drums of fuel stacked on deck just to get that far. So striking a target 700 miles further away might not be impossible, but it will be on a margin that has no room for error at all.
Secondly... what's the point? Pearl Harbour makes sense as a target - the US Pacific Fleet was there, and if it could be dealt a heavy enough blow the US would take quite a while to recover from it. A high risk operation, given the range, but one with potentially high rewards as well. So if there's something equally important elsewhere, they might consider it.
What is there in Brisbane that would justify this attack, though? Unless it's a target of similar importance, the IJN simply doesn't have the resources to spare for this. Keep in mind the very tight timetable they were operating under early in the war. They might have their carriers spare for long enough to make the strike, but I don't know if there was anything in Brisbane at the end of 1941 that would be worth the effort and risk.
The Japanese could have dropped 15 divisions into Australia if this had been desired. That wasn't the problem. The problem was that (1) Australia was huge and (2) the Japanese army was foot propelled while the Allied armies were more mechanized and (3) attaining naval superority in the whole region so vast and far from Japan was impossible and (4) the Allies would pour in their own 15 divisions to counter the Japanese and (5) the Allies would gain air superiority and (6) the Allies could out-supply the Japanese, ton for ton, by maybe a margin of 2:1.
All these things spell certain defeat for Japan in any major invasion scenario, so there was no point to invading Australia. That ain't the same thing as it being impossible for Japan to invade Australia.
They were carrying drums of fuel aboard because they might have to sail through a bloody typhoon to get there.