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Here is something interesting I have contemplated on: would it have been possible for the Japanese to keep peace with the United States in 1941 and instead declare war on the Soviet Union? How would this impact the cause of WWII?

I suppose that this would have created a twofold effect:

- Without Pearl Harbour, and also without the German declaration of war on the United States a few days after Pearl Harbour, it's kind of obvious that this would delayed the entry of the US into WWII for a considerable time. I would think that they eventually would have entered the war, anyways, I am not sure if the United States would fight with the same eagerness and commitment as they did in OTL if there wasn't such a humiliating "shock effect" as from Pearl Harbour. It could be that Roosevelt would have a considerably degree of difficulty to get the Americans into WWII.

- Regarding the Japanese and the Soviets, I'm not sure what the effect would be. The Japanese suffered a defeat in 1939 in the Japanese-Soviet border wars, which is the primary reason they kept peace with the Soviets in OTL. However I am not sure how badly the Japanese would really fare against the Soviets. I'm not sure what the butterflies would be, however - it could be that having to fight a two-front war pushes the Soviets near the breaking point - even though that's a tad speculative.

Bottom line, in my opinion is, while I think this would change little about the actual outcome of the war (I think it's unlikely that this would lead to an Axis victory, except for a few unforeseen butterflies), it would certainly prolong the war.
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