Plausibility Check: Industrialized Mahgreb

[Avitus]

Pretty self-explanatory, with a PoD after the rise of Islam, can the Mahgreb region industrialize successfully around the same time as the Europeans? As a follow up question, which regions are best suited to doing so? Would the region have a better chance united under one empire, or could one or two of the modern nation states there do it alone?

Just to clarify, I'm not asking for a scenario in which it happens so much as which regions have the natural resources to do so, so I'm not especially interested in what ideological changes lead to this change, just whether the geographic region has the resources to support it.

 

[RyanBrune]

Pretty self-explanatory, with a PoD after the rise of Islam, can the Mahgreb region industrialize successfully around the same time as the Europeans? As a follow up question, which regions are best suited to doing so? Would the region have a better chance united under one empire, or could one or two of the modern nation states there do it alone?

Just to clarify, I'm not asking for a scenario in which it happens so much as which regions have the natural resources to do so, so I'm not especially interested in what ideological changes lead to this change, just whether the geographic region has the resources to support it.

It needs more people. The population of the entire Maghreb was smaller than that of Spain until 70 years ago. In order for wide scale industrialization you need a large population base. Also water power from rivers is generally needed to start industrialization. So probably not.

 

[Avitus]

It needs more people. The population of the entire Maghreb was smaller than that of Spain until 70 years ago. In order for wide scale industrialization you need a large population base. Also water power from rivers is generally needed to start industrialization. So probably not.

Wasn't the low population compared to Europe in part because of economic stagnation though?

Also, not sure if it's enough, but aren't there a few significant rivers in Morocco and Tunisia?

 

[Malta]

The fertile regions of the Maghreb were indeed much larger then they were today but it is hard to say how much was result of the destruction the fertile regions by lack of maintainence and human calamity or purely changing weather climate. Certainly earlier civilization the Ghadames was a mixture of both, the civilization collapsing after they had used up the local aquifer.

 

[Deleted member 67076]

In addition to the aforementioned food issue, there's also the problem of where to get that coal. The Maghreb is poor in coal for the most part, with Algeria having some coal, which by far is mostly lignite and not really that good. However, there is a solution to this and that is Sub Saharan Africa and Spain. Niger and the Senegal both have coal reserves that can be exploited and a Magreb state is more than capable of holding territory that far south (see the Almoravids or the Saadis) and projecting power. Both sources of coal can be transported north by means of Caravan (in Niger) or via boat (in the Senegal).

The of course there's also the coal reserves of Spain, which in a Maghreb state that has controls Al Andalus gains access to. Catalonia IIRC has the most reserves, but holding that area will hard seeing as its so close to France. Any Maghreb state that wants to industrialize needs to be strong enough to expand and hold coal rich areas.

 

[Delta Force]

It's certainly an option after the petroleum resources of Algeria and Libya are discovered, if you're willing to consider industrialization in the New Imperialism Era and later. In addition to petroleum, Libya also sits atop a vast underground aquifer suitable for drinking water and irrigation.

 

[Deleted member 67076]

Another thing you need to solve would be the government and tribal issues. Berber states were notoriously prone to infighting and factionalization thanks to varying tribes competing for power. You need to find a way to curb that and get a stable government over much of the Maghreb to better co-ordinate its resources.

 

[sloreck]

The Maghreb has a relatively small population, even at best limited food resources, and until oil/natural gas not a lot of natural resources. All of these combine to make industrialization very difficult even without the social/governmental difficulties. Even now, if you subtract oil/gas infrastructure the Maghreb has minimal industry. IMHO any sort of 18-19 century industrialization in the Maghreb is pretty ASB.

 

[Deleted member 67076]

The Maghreb has a relatively small population, even at best limited food resources, and until oil/natural gas not a lot of natural resources. All of these combine to make industrialization very difficult even without the social/governmental difficulties. Even now, if you subtract oil/gas infrastructure the Maghreb has minimal industry. IMHO any sort of 18-19 century industrialization in the Maghreb is pretty ASB.

Thats why you need a big Maghreb state that gains access to Sub Saharan or Spanish coal and better agriculture developments than OTL. You'd also need to change the entire focus from the Barbary states from plundering their neighbors into producing and trading (which isn't impossible) and focus on the cities.

 

[eliphas8]

Even in Arab industrialization scenarios the Maghreb industrializing first is implausible. I'd say Egypt has the most potential for First Industrial Revolution style water powered industry, and modern Iraq has a lot of potential for second industrial revolution type stuff. But the challenge is to make it happen and stick.