Plausibility Check: How far could Russian settlement in Hokkaido have gone?

I've been juggling a couple of ideas for a non-ASB TL for a while, one of which is a TL which looks into a limited Russian settlement in Hokkaido in the 19th Century, possibly earlier. Won't give away details (unless requested via PM), but I was wondering how far could the Russians have gone in settling in the island, and how could it be made possible. Another point of contention would be how (in)defensible would these settlements have been against the Japanese, given their reliance on the Russian Pacific Fleet for protection.

What I'm going for in my TL is an Alaska-like situation, where the Russians eventually decided on abandoning the settlements one way or another, but with a significant population (whether purely Russian or mixed Ainu-Russian settlers) left behind under Japanese rule. If there are issues with my scenario, feel free to let me know. I appreciate your help.
 
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Could/would the Shogun's army be able to sail to drive out the invaders? Might mean the Japanese buy more Dutch cannon and newer muskets.
 
Could/would the Shogun's army be able to sail to drive out the invaders? Might mean the Japanese buy more Dutch cannon and newer muskets.

Hmm... It's likely they'll get help from the British too, but that's likely due to the latter getting jittered by Russia's expanding presence. It also depends on how much Moscow is willing and able to protect their citizens.
 

trurle

Banned
Russians can come to Hokkaido. And they did in OTL. The immediate result in OTL was what the Shogunate and Tohoku clans have ramped up the plans of Hokkaido conquest.

Also from logistical perspective, the position of Russian settlements on Hokkaido during Edo epoch was hopeless.
The supply line through Siberian Route has become minimally functional by 1850. The Pacific fleet of Russia was established in 1860. Sea supply routes from south must pass along ~1000km of Japanese-controlled lands. Not saying about British-controlled waters (which will be blocked intermittently due wars)

Therefore, trying to wrestle control of Hokkaido from Japanese sphere of influence earlier will actually result in the faster Japanese expansion, faster Russian expulsion from Hokkaido, and more cruel Ainu genocide.:p
 
Russians can come to Hokkaido. And they did in OTL. The immediate result in OTL was what the Shogunate and Tohoku clans have ramped up the plans of Hokkaido conquest.

Also from logistical perspective, the position of Russian settlements on Hokkaido during Edo epoch was hopeless.
The supply line through Siberian Route has become minimally functional by 1850. The Pacific fleet of Russia was established in 1860. Sea supply routes from south must pass along ~1000km of Japanese-controlled lands. Not saying about British-controlled waters (which will be blocked intermittently due wars)

Therefore, trying to wrestle control of Hokkaido from Japanese sphere of influence earlier will actually result in the faster Japanese expansion, faster Russian expulsion from Hokkaido, and more cruel Ainu genocide.:p

Tragic. Expected, but tragic. I'm guessing there virtually no way for any settlers to remain, not even if they settle on condition of accepting Japanese sovereignty?

Alternatively, maybe a more significant Russian presence in Hakodate? It was the entry point for the Russian Orthodox Chruch, and protected under the unequal treaties, I'm guessing?
 
If the British did add weight, could we see an earlier opening of Japan by the British Navy?
 
If the British did add weight, could we see an earlier opening of Japan by the British Navy?

Perhaps. Earlier attempts before Perry to open Japan to trade never really amounted to force. If there was any signs of Russian aggression in Ezo towards the Tokugawa, they might actually become desperate enough to turn other powers to balance out. The Dutch can't offer much in the way of assistance by this point, but they could point them to those that can.
 

trurle

Banned
Perhaps. Earlier attempts before Perry to open Japan to trade never really amounted to force. If there was any signs of Russian aggression in Ezo towards the Tokugawa, they might actually become desperate enough to turn other powers to balance out. The Dutch can't offer much in the way of assistance by this point, but they could point them to those that can.

So conclusion is what earlier Russian settlements in Hokkaido will result in stronger Japan - independently or with help of other foreign powers (British, French, US or Dutch).

As about the fate of tentative Russian settlements in Hokkaido, the Shogunate was able to start a formal annexation of Hokkaido back in 1799 (mainly in response to appeared Russinan merchants). Therefore, Russians have shifted attention elsewhere - i.e. to Manchuria, Alaska and Hawaii. Would any Russian settlers arrived to Hokkaido anyway, they will be either expelled (most likely) or may be allowed to stay on conditions of full assimilation. The massacre of Russian settlers is unlikely, because they never have a chance to become a military threat. Too few in numbers and never adequately supplied.
About Russian Orthodox Church - plainly impossible under closed Japan conditions. In OTL, thirst orthodox church in Hakodate have appeared only in 1859 - years after Perry's black ships arrival.
 
So conclusion is what earlier Russian settlements in Hokkaido will result in stronger Japan - independently or with help of other foreign powers (British, French, US or Dutch).

As about the fate of tentative Russian settlements in Hokkaido, the Shogunate was able to start a formal annexation of Hokkaido back in 1799 (mainly in response to appeared Russinan merchants). Therefore, Russians have shifted attention elsewhere - i.e. to Manchuria, Alaska and Hawaii. Would any Russian settlers arrived to Hokkaido anyway, they will be either expelled (most likely) or may be allowed to stay on conditions of full assimilation. The massacre of Russian settlers is unlikely, because they never have a chance to become a military threat. Too few in numbers and never adequately supplied.
About Russian Orthodox Church - plainly impossible under closed Japan conditions. In OTL, thirst orthodox church in Hakodate have appeared only in 1859 - years after Perry's black ships arrival.

I see.

Anyway, what about a William Adams-type scenario where a sailor is stranded in Matsumae lands and becoming a samurai with his own fief, spurring a bit more Russian settlement albeit under Japanese rule? It's probably crazy, but OTL is never one to follow 'common sense'.
 

trurle

Banned
I see.

Anyway, what about a William Adams-type scenario where a sailor is stranded in Matsumae lands and becoming a samurai with his own fief, spurring a bit more Russian settlement albeit under Japanese rule? It's probably crazy, but OTL is never one to follow 'common sense'.

May be possible in the time frame of 1467-1635 (from the start of Sengoku period until Sakoku Edict). After 1635, foreigners were prohibited from becoming a samurai. Anyway, any Russians fiefs under Japanese rule will be completely assimilated since 1635, leaving may be some curious customs and culinary oddities in the mainstream Japanese culture.
 
May be possible in the time frame of 1467-1635 (from the start of Sengoku period until Sakoku Edict). After 1635, foreigners were prohibited from becoming a samurai. Anyway, any Russians fiefs under Japanese rule will be completely assimilated since 1635, leaving may be some curious customs and culinary oddities in the mainstream Japanese culture.

Ah. That's a huge bummer, perhaps. I'm pretty sure the Russians were trying to subdue Siberia at this point of time. Might take something truly radical to see at least even one settlement this early and this far out when Siberia has enough empty space anyway.
 
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